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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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Continued surface high pressure under the upper level ridge building
eastward into New England Monday and Tuesday will support mostly dry
and warm weather both days. Highs will be 10-15 degrees above
average with low 80s across the Lake Plains, mid to upper 70s on the
higher terrain. Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday night will mainly
settle in the low/mid 60s, with 50s east of Lake Ontario.

Meanwhile, an amplifying upper level trough over the Rockies will
deepen and eventually form a closed low. By Wednesday, the upper
level pattern will have shifted further east, introducing deep
southwesterly flow over the region. As the center of the low lifts
northeastward into Canada, a cold front extending southward from the
low will begin to approach the region. This will bring an increasing
chance of showers from west to east beginning Tuesday night. Best
chances for showers with this system currently look to be Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning as per the latest 12z ECMWF and
Canadian solutions. Temperatures cool off for Wednesday and
especially Thursday as cooler air associated with the front advects
into the region.
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Thank you all for sharing your thoughts on this coming winter. 

What I really want to see is a huge snowstorm. I have never seen more than 12" from a single storm and I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to watch 2-3 feet fall in the span of a couple days.

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8 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Thank you all for sharing your thoughts on this coming winter. 

What I really want to see is a huge snowstorm. I have never seen more than 12" from a single storm and I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to watch 2-3 feet fall in the span of a couple days.

You can see 12” fall around here in 3 hours. :snowing:

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4 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Hell yes. Bring it on.

I'll miss the frequent thunderstorms but I'll be damned if the snow belt isn't a good, if not better substitute.

Where were you before? You'll almost certainly get more frequent snowstorms in Oswego as well. Maybe not as big but definitely more. Maybe we will even get our long lost friend the Alberta clipper this year. Many wonder if they will ever revisit us again.

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where were you before? You'll almost certainly get more frequent snowstorms in Oswego as well. Maybe not as big but definitely more. Maybe we will even get our long lost friend the Alberta clipper this year. Many wonder if they will ever revisit us again.

I recently moved from Middle Tennessee, specifically a place about 30 miles SW of Nashville. I've lived in Tennessee my whole life so this will be quite the change.

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3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I recently moved from Middle Tennessee, specifically a place about 30 miles SW of Nashville. I've lived in Tennessee my whole life so this will be quite the change.

Oh wow. You're in for a treat. Are you going to school in Oswego or permanent move? You can get 10 years of snowfall totals in Nashville in 1 event in Oswego. Judging by your signature from 2011-2021 you got 32.9" of snow there. You can get that pretty easily in one event in Oswego lol

Just last year they got this event

Lake Effect Summary - Feb 09 2021 to Feb 11 2021 - Storm Total Snow Map

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=H

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5 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I recently moved from Middle Tennessee, specifically a place about 30 miles SW of Nashville. I've lived in Tennessee my whole life so this will be quite the change.

Welcome to forum. You picked the best area other than the tug hill to be for snow in entire country thats populated

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6 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Yes, I'm at SUNY studying met.

Historically Nashville averages about 6" of snow per year but, as you can see, it's been dismal since the 21st century. I can think of maybe 5 or 6 winters where we were above average.

Welcome to Oswego, i live 15 minutes from there in a little town called Hannibal. Once that Lake Effect kicks in look out lol. 

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16 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Quite the cool down coming by late next week. Go from 80s this week and early next week to struggling to get out of the 50s by the end of next week. Will definitely feel much like fall.

 

 

CFA9AB19-71EF-474D-89CE-AE0C109498D1.jpeg

I hope next weeks game is chilly so I cant make some chili for tailgating. :D

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11 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

I recently moved from Middle Tennessee, specifically a place about 30 miles SW of Nashville. I've lived in Tennessee my whole life so this will be quite the change.


Welcome to the non-downstate part of New York!

I moved from Nashville to Buffalo in 2012, and it was a big change in sensible weather. But I lived in snowy places both as a kid and as an adult, and I am old enough to remember some pretty good snowfalls in the Nashville area in the 70s and 80s (not to mention the 93 ice storm).

I don’t regret the move for a minute. Not only is the weather much more suited to my preferences, but I have found western NYers to be the most genuine and friendly people I’ve ever met. And Buffalo’s revival is real - when I first moved here, people were visibly shocked that I had left Nashville for Buffalo, but now they don’t think a thing about it.

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10 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Yes, I'm at SUNY studying met.

Historically Nashville averages about 6" of snow per year but, as you can see, it's been dismal since the 21st century. I can think of maybe 5 or 6 winters where we were above average.

There’s a guy with a handle in here TugHill Matt…stay away and save yourself…he’s a black cat under a ladder playing the ouija board all while watching the shining all in one…

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Quote
Meanwhile as the upper level ridge slides east, the trough pattern
to the west over the Continental Divide will amplify and dig across
the Central Plains and Upper Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Then, said trough`s axis will cross the region Thursday. As
such, a Colorado low will develop and cross northeast across the
Northern Plains into Canada. Additionally, the surface low will drag
its surface boundary across the Midwest Tuesday night before
crossing the region Wednesday. As the front edges near the region
Tuesday night and then crosses the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night, chances for rain showers will re-enter the forecast, passing
from west to east.

The frontal passage will finish exiting the eastern portions of the
forecast area Thursday. Also, due to the amplification of the trough
aloft, cool continental air will be advected in across the region
behind the frontal passage with long range model guidance packages
suggesting temperatures at 850mb to drop into the low single digits
Celsius. With the cooler air aloft and wind shifting to
northwesterly behind the exiting front, chances for lake enhanced
showers will continue Thursday afternoon.

With the passage of the front and the infiltration of cooler air
into the region temperatures will drop back down to normal. Highs
Wednesday will warm into the low to mid 70s, while Thursday will be
cooler with highs ranging in the 60s.

 

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However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 20 years. This period of colder weather should also bring an abundance of lake effect snow to the traditional snowbelts east and southeast of the Great Lakes.

The weather network

1A1A1A1AFALLFORECASTENDOFFALL__Sept_12_ (1).webp

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 20 years. This period of colder weather should also bring an abundance of lake effect snow to the traditional snowbelts east and southeast of the Great Lakes.

The weather network

1A1A1A1AFALLFORECASTENDOFFALL__Sept_12_ (1).webp

Can we lock it in? 

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23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 20 years. This period of colder weather should also bring an abundance of lake effect snow to the traditional snowbelts east and southeast of the Great Lakes.

The weather network

1A1A1A1AFALLFORECASTENDOFFALL__Sept_12_ (1).webp

I know covid has affected everyone in different ways but these folks need to put the Bong down once in a while. ;)

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2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

There’s a guy with a handle in here TugHill Matt…stay away and save yourself…he’s a black cat under a ladder playing the ouija board all while watching the shining all in one…

We used to have solid snowfall here locally but not since @TugHillMattarrived, after single handedly destroying the snowmobiling industry during his time on the Tug.  Now we just Sizzle Sizzle. ;)

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 20 years. This period of colder weather should also bring an abundance of lake effect snow to the traditional snowbelts east and southeast of the Great Lakes.

The weather network

1A1A1A1AFALLFORECASTENDOFFALL__Sept_12_ (1).webp

Ninas definitely favor cooler Oct-Dec. Last year did not behave like a Nina due to the PAC flow. 

Oct: +1.0

Nov: +5.8

Dec: +3.4

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

In looking back at last year, our first Trace of snow was on Oct 30th and our first hard freeze was Oct 31st. First measurable snow was Nov. 2nd for Buffalo. 

The last few falls have had early season snow (at least for GTA) followed by weeks of 40s and 50s. I was hoping that the first big push of colder air was going to wait until October but looks like its coming next week. 

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