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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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Euro still showing some snow even for the some blower elevations.. Forecast has the potential for snow to mix in from Wednesday night through Friday, granted pops at 30%..

NWS mentions light accumulation for the higher elevations..

While
these will initially be in the form of just plain rain...continued
cooling of the column should eventually result in the precip mixing
with and/or changing to snow outright across the higher terrain...
which could in turn result in our first minor accumulations of the
season.

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2021-10-30T094158.517.png

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Swing and a miss as of now..

00z model guidance has trended weaker and further offshore with a
potential coastal low off the East Coast on Friday. Therefore,
trended PoPs down a bit, however trough and lake influences support
low chances Thursday night and Friday.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus - 2021-10-30T101316.158.png

Not a bad place this far out. Euro on it's own though everything else is super squashed.

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It's funny that the disco says all rain for lower elevations but the P&C has potential for snow showers to mix in almost every day lol

Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Rain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely before 9am, then rain and snow showers likely between 9am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 10pm and 5am, then snow showers likely after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It's funny that the disco says all rain for lower elevations but the P&C has potential for snow showers to mix in almost every day lol

Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Rain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely before 9am, then rain and snow showers likely between 9am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 10pm and 5am, then snow showers likely after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Yeah there will definitely be accumulating snow in the higher elevations this upcoming week. Maybe even LES advs for highest elevations.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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It's also has the best shot of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning..It all comes down to overcoming the BL which torches due to the lake.. Warmer the lake=harder it is to snow close to the lake.. Obviously we do better the 2nd half of the month, we'll see how that goes lol

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (63).png

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-10-31T144324.039.png

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Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise from 10K feet Monday night
to about 15K feet Tuesday, then rise further to over 20K feet
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the core of coldest air aloft
crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a good chance of
thunder at times in the stronger bands off both lakes.

Lake Erie...

Monday evening the lake response will still be limited by sparse
synoptic scale moisture. Later Monday night a frontal wave will pass
through the Ohio Valley and bring more synoptic scale moisture into
play. At the same time a surface trough will cross Lake Erie,
bringing an uptick in low level convergence. This will allow a band
of lake effect to expand and intensify across the Southern Tier
overnight, with the eastern end extending all the way across the
Finger Lakes by late Monday night. Sufficient moisture and another
surface trough will support a continuation of lake effect Tuesday
and Tuesday night east of Lake Erie, mainly across the western
Southern Tier. The eastern end will extend across the Finger Lakes
at times with deep inland penetration. Finally by Wednesday,
boundary layer flow will veer more WNW, with lighter upslope/lake
effect persisting over the Southern Tier Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

Precipitation type will be all rain initially Monday evening. Later
Monday night through Tuesday temperatures aloft and in the boundary
layer will cool sufficiently to allow wet snow to mix in across the
higher terrain inland from Lake Erie, with a few of the highest
hills possibly going to all wet snow at times. There is a better
chance of a change to all wet snow Tuesday night and Wednesday when
the column cools further. The heaviest lake effect precip will fall
Monday night through Tuesday when temperatures are still very
marginal for accumulation, with lighter precipitation amounts
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the marginal temperatures,
accumulation potential looks limited, with minor accumulations on
the higher hills.

Lake Ontario...

Dry air will limit the lake response through much of Monday night,
with a relatively weak band over the Tug Hill moving north towards
Watertown by late Monday night. Boundary layer moisture and
instability improve late Monday night through Tuesday morning, so
expect a more organized band of lake effect to center over central
and northern Jefferson County as boundary layer flow becomes
southwesterly. This band will tend to break up for awhile Tuesday
afternoon and evening as drier air and shear move over eastern Lake
Ontario. Tuesday night through Wednesday morning a stronger trough
will bring a big increase in synoptic scale moisture and convergence
to Lake Ontario. Expect a band of heavy lake effect to develop near
Watertown initially, then move south across the Tug Hill later
Tuesday night, reaching Oswego County by Wednesday morning. Boundary
layer flow then becomes WNW Wednesday, with a broader area of lake
effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario from the Niagara Frontier
to Central NY by afternoon. Lake effect will continue east and
southeast of Lake Ontario into Wednesday night.

Precipitation type will be strongly influenced by terrain east of
Lake Ontario through the event. The lower elevations close to Lake
Ontario will stay mainly rain, with some graupel or wet flakes
mixing in at times, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday when the
coldest air aloft crosses overhead. The best accumulation potential
for the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks will
come Tuesday night when the strong band moves south across the area,
with several inches of wet snow possible.
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