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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am doubtful of any legitimate cool downs in the extended range. We've seen this show before. Already, the past two weeks have ended up 10 degrees warmer (at least) than they were forecasted to be in "the extended range."

We were "supposed to cool down" this past week and we freakin ended up in the mid 70s (at least in the hell furnace of Sizzlecuse) two days. This upcoming week was supposed to be low 50s, and here we are.... 65 degrees tomorrow and then maybe a couple more 60s days.

I refuse to get excited about any cold unless it's actually here and dense and not going to leave at 10:30pm some random night.

GFS has problems with long range cold. This entire statement is correct.

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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Another record broken? Shocked..................................

 

Also, that kind of system at that latitude in the Pacific goes along with my idea of doubting any cold getting here soon.

Well sometimes systems like this can shake up the entire pattern and bring down some cold air behind them.

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12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anything beyond 3-4 days you want to use the GEFS/EPS. Anything beyond 10 days its almost useless. EURO/EPS only goes to day 10 unless its the weeklies which are ok in weeks 1-2 but anything beyond that useless.

GFS Operational was much better all last winter as compared to GEFS. 

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For Upstate, the odds of a warmer-than-normal winter this year is about 50%. While that sounds like a coin toss, it’s not. There remains a 33% chance that we’ll see a normal winter, which means the likelihood of a colder-than-normal winter is just 17%.

Gottschalk cautioned that long-term forecasts are probabilities, not certainties.

“The nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible, but just less likely,” he said.

La Ninas tend to cause a big dip in the jet stream in the middle of the continent; from there, the jet stream rises north and crosses over the Ohio Valley and through Upstate New York. Small swings in the jet stream can put Upstate on the cold or warm side of it, spelling the difference between snow and rain.

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

For Upstate, the odds of a warmer-than-normal winter this year is about 50%. While that sounds like a coin toss, it’s not. There remains a 33% chance that we’ll see a normal winter, which means the likelihood of a colder-than-normal winter is just 17%.

Gottschalk cautioned that long-term forecasts are probabilities, not certainties.

“The nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible, but just less likely,” he said.

La Ninas tend to cause a big dip in the jet stream in the middle of the continent; from there, the jet stream rises north and crosses over the Ohio Valley and through Upstate New York. Small swings in the jet stream can put Upstate on the cold or warm side of it, spelling the difference between snow and rain.

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When is the last below normal winter for temps? 2013-2014?

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