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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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Scott Hetsko, reiterating a point I’ve been harping on for a while:  He claims we’ve now had 3 winters of less than 100” of snow and that it hasn’t happened since the early 80’s. 
Due! It’s all cyclical. 
Not really based on science but rather the law of averages. Of course a smart person could post the snowfall from the 50’s and really put a hurt on my enthusiasm. 
Either way, it looks like we get a taste in 2 weeks or so. 
So glad to be back and a heartfelt thanks to those of you who sympathized with my dad’s dementia diagnosis. I love this group! 

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The issue with this cool down is we are forecast clouds and showers nearly every day..So while some of the highs are below average, lows are not and keep rising lol Sunday night went from mid 30s to low 40s..

Today was kind of a cheap high of 59° at midnight but most of the day will feature mid-upper 40s.. Currently 49° with on and off weak lake showers..

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During the balance of this period...our attention will turn back to
the synoptic scale as a sharpening baroclinic zone initially sets up
across the Ohio Valley Sunday...then pushes north into the Southern/
Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday in response to a strong
shortwave/attendant area of low pressure rippling northeastward
along the resultant tight thermal gradient. Strong warm advective
lift/isentropic ascent along the baroclinic zone will combine with
plentiful moisture and favorable lower and upper level jet dynamics
(including an impressive coupled upper level jet structure and
strongly diffluent flow aloft) to bring a widespread soaking
rainfall to our region...with this beginning as early as late Sunday
afternoon/early Sunday evening across the Southern Tier...then
overspreading the rest of the area through the balance of the
period. Given all this...have continued the midnight shift`s trend
of raising PoPs... with these now bumped up into the categorical
range for both Sunday night and Monday. At this early juncture...it
appears that we could be looking at a general inch to inch and a
half of rain across much of our area between Sunday night and
Monday...with somewhat lower amounts of a half inch to an inch
across the North Country.

With respect to temperatures...these will generally run near to a
little below average through the period. Expect lows in the mid 30s
to lower 40s Sunday night...highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Sunday...and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night. On
Monday a tighter thermal gradient will likely be in place with our
region bisected by a slow moving surface frontal boundary...with
a rain-cooled northeasterly low level flow on the north side of the
front keeping highs confined to the mid 40s to lower 50s along and
north of the Thruway...while interior portions of the Finger Lakes
and Southern Tier should see readings reach the 55-60 range south of
the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Two Pacific systems will impact our region this period. The first,
with a surface low just to our southwest Monday Night will continue
the rain across our region...with low clouds and fog shrouding the
higher hilltops. Moist cyclonic flow aloft will maintain clouds
while rain becomes lighter through the night as the warm conveyor
belt and its lift slides towards eastern New York.

Under cold air advection Tuesday rain showers will continue over the
region and likely not until Tuesday Night when drier air follows the
departing upper level low will our region start to dry from west to
east.

While a spot shower or two is possible early Wednesday across
eastern zones, a mid level ridge will pass over our region...with
this ridge separating the two Pacific systems. Dry weather is
expected under this ridge Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

The next Pacific low, this deeper both aloft and at the surface will
bring rain showers back into our region Thursday. As this upper
level low slowly passes across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday,
periods of rain showers are likely for our region.

Cloud cover will likely keep our minimum temperatures from falling
below normal, while daytime highs will remain near to slightly above
normal this period.
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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's scary up there in winter weather.

I've been in the Adirondacks during snowstorms, and I've been on the Tug during storms.

The Dacks don't really scare me.

But I have felt a real visceral fear during heavy lake effect on the tug, especially crossing open areas with the wind howling.

 

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59 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I've been in the Adirondacks during snowstorms, and I've been on the Tug during storms.

The Dacks don't really scare me.

But I have felt a real visceral fear during heavy lake effect on the tug, especially crossing open areas with the wind howling.

 

Have you been up in the high peaks during a snowstorm? Wind speeds above 4K feet on open summits can be well over 100 mph with whiteout conditions. The strongest winds I’ve ever felt were on top of a high peak in February of 2019, had to be 90 mph. You’ll never see snowfall rates in the adk like you’ll see in a strong band off the tug but temps are insanely cold at the summits, and wind speeds are insane. The scariest part is getting stuck up there in a bad storm, many times 7-8 mile walk back to the car. 

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...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Overnight low temperatures between 33 to 38 degrees will
  result in areas of frost formation.

* WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are forecast to quickly fall
  into the 30s later this evening. Temperatures may hold steady or
  slowly rise toward daybreak as clouds move in.
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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Overnight low temperatures between 33 to 38 degrees will
  result in areas of frost formation.

* WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are forecast to quickly fall
  into the 30s later this evening. Temperatures may hold steady or
  slowly rise toward daybreak as clouds move in.

I see it's near 50 degrees along the Lake Ontario shoreline, especially in the Oswego/Fair Haven area.

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Yeah cloud cover and NW flow off the warm lake..Still low -mid 40s east of Ontario with clouds..

20212960146_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-600x600 (1).jpg

Actually not much of a wind tonight, just mostly cloudy..

Tonight 850MB temps will continue to drop to the -2C to -4C range.
Despite the cold airmass, the lake response will be muted by dry air
and subsidence in the mid levels. Boundary layer flow will become
very weak tonight, allowing land breeze circulations to become
dominant. This will force bands of lake effect rain showers to
primarily reside over the lakes with very little inland penetration.
A few showers may clip the Lake Erie shore southwest of Buffalo at
times tonight. A few more showers may clip the Lake Ontario shore
from the Monroe County over to Oswego County late tonight and
Saturday morning. Otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly dry
tonight. Low temperatures will drop to upper 30s/near 40 across the
lake plains and mid 30s across the Southern Tier and North Country.
Increasing cloud cover across western New York and eventually
central New York should keep frost potential to a minimum.
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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

GFS still advertising some fantasy goodies for the higher elevations, going to take a lot to overcome that toasty lake Imby..lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_46 (2).png

Euro Hi-res also shows at the very end of its run what appears to be an eastern cold dump. Could be looking at our first flakes first week of November.

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I just don't get it...  screenshot from 1003pm.  KBUF update on site at 1002pm and all other stations reported between 955 and 1002pm, so data is live time within 7 minutes of any other station.  Yet again once the sun goes down the KBUF site is staying 1.5-3.5 degrees warmers that its closest surrounding stations.  Somethings just not right about it.  Even taking into account the micro climate with that "ridge" the airport sits on 266 and 190 would be control stations as they are both roughly 1-1.25 miles from the KBUF ASOS site on similar terrain.  Only difference is these temps are in a residential setting vs an open field in the middle of an airport.  Even these two sites will run several degrees colder at some point of the night than KBUF.           

TEMP1003 1022.png

range.png

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