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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Man o’ man. These LR’s sure have been depressing the last few days. That SE ridge is starting to feel permanent. Puke

I've been obsessed with golf this summer, so I'm trying to make lemonade out of this scenario.  If this winter is going to suck, I'll trade in my snowboard for my clubs and golf well into January, if not straight through the winter. I know friends who did that in the epically bad winter of 2011-2012.   Even last year I had friends golf in every month except February.  You just gotta roll with the weather and make the most of it.  

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59 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

How can you tell that from a probability map? Lol

Its a 40-50% chance of above average, that's not that high, you have a 50%+ chance of something else aka Avg-below..

I hope you’re right. But that map features a consistent negative pna pattern. Looks like a bad pacific to me. 

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Regional radars showing initial round of showers and embedded
thunder just entering far western New York this afternoon. Instability
and shear across the area at this stage of the day very limited.

Shear and instability should get better as we move into the late
afternoon and early evening ahead of the surface cold front
currently across far eastern Michigan and western Ohio. The
expectation is that a somewhat organized line of convection will
enter far western New York around 6/7 pm then translate eastward
across the area. Convection likely exiting eastern areas around
midnight or so. This timing is suggested by the latest 16/17z
runs of the HRRR. We will need to monitor this convection as it
moves across the area with the potential for some stronger wind
gusts.

Behind the front, notably cooler air and some gustier surface winds
of 25 to 35 mph will develop tonight. Incoming cooler air aloft
could generate a minor lake/upslope response east of the lakes.

Friday continues to look like a much cooler day with temperatures
just getting into the 50s, with higher terrain staying in the
40s. Plenty of cloud cover with some spotty northwest flow lake
showers possible
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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I've been obsessed with golf this summer, so I'm trying to make lemonade out of this scenario.  If this winter is going to suck, I'll trade in my snowboard for my clubs and golf well into January, if not straight through the winter. I know friends who did that in the epically bad winter of 2011-2012.   Even last year I had friends golf in every month except February.  You just gotta roll with the weather and make the most of it.  

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

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17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

This is normal for late October right?  That line has had back to back tornado warnings for hours now!  And SPC carried a 0% tornado risk for those storms for the first half of the day… 

5EBA9930-DE01-4536-A638-54BE7473F3D9.png

pretty crazy. the rotation in the CC drop I posted above was definitely a TOG too. We've picked up a crapload of rain today, has to be well over an inch.

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3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

I'm so sorry to read this. I worked around people with dementia and it's heartbreaking. I can remember so vividly the one day a lady's husband came to visit her. He was walking right next to her, she came up to me and said, "Excuse me, sir. Do you know where my husband is?" He was such a loyal and faithful husband to her regardless of her condition. Much peace to you as you interact with your dad in the state that he is in.

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31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm so sorry to read this. I worked around people with dementia and it's heartbreaking. I can remember so vividly the one day a lady's husband came to visit her. He was walking right next to her, she came up to me and said, "Excuse me, sir. Do you know where my husband is?" He was such a loyal and faithful husband to her regardless of her condition. Much peace to you as you interact with your dad in the state that he is in.

Thanks Matt! 

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RGEMs early take on our next big system SUN PM into MON AM.  Seem like these keep getting stronger and stronger every week if this verifies.  Can’t find the post now but someone was saying to keep an eye on the amount of moisture coming out of the GOM and tropics.  Whatever metric he was using showed this unusually massive amount of moisture being pulled up into the US fueling bigger storms.  Was a plausible thought and now seeing this… can see the streamers feeding into that storm.
 

 We’re going to see some kind of massive storm around our area in the next 10 day period.  Pretty good agreement with all the models we see a fairly consistent pattern of a storm system passing every 3-4 days.  Heaps of moisture from the south, cold air slowly building to the north.  The west coast is getting slammed with the atmospheric river thing adding even more juice.  Just need one of the storms to hit a kink and bam.  Maybe early snow?  More like high winds, severe storms, heavy rain.  There’s just too much energy floating across the country for something big not to happen in the next week or two.  

A0D223E8-927F-4E31-AE6B-A79FA7D3C391.gif

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5 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

I'm so sorry bro. My grandpa had dementia for a few years before he passed, it was the saddest thing in the world. It's literally my biggest fear. I'd rather have my body go before my brain did.

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22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

RGEMs early take on our next big system SUN PM into MON AM.  Seem like these keep getting stronger and stronger every week if this verifies.  Can’t find the post now but someone was saying to keep an eye on the amount of moisture coming out of the GOM and tropics.  Whatever metric he was using showed this unusually massive amount of moisture being pulled up into the US fueling bigger storms.  Was a plausible thought and now seeing this… can see the streamers feeding into that storm.
 

 We’re going to see some kind of massive storm around our area in the next 10 day period.  Pretty good agreement with all the models we see a fairly consistent pattern of a storm system passing every 3-4 days.  Heaps of moisture from the south, cold air slowly building to the north.  The west coast is getting slammed with the atmospheric river thing adding even more juice.  Just need one of the storms to hit a kink and bam.  Maybe early snow?  More like high winds, severe storms, heavy rain.  There’s just too much energy floating across the country for something big not to happen in the next week or two.  

A0D223E8-927F-4E31-AE6B-A79FA7D3C391.gif

That track right there is actually a perfect track for all of upstate during the winter. I agree with a lot of your post. Pattern memory is a thing too in the atmosphere and may continue into the cold months/

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Outside of the warmest urban core of New York City and Long Island, good ol' Sizzlecuse still warmest place in New York right now at 63 degrees. It's incredible, and disgusting. Always leaning warm...We'll have another above average day with warmest temps for the new day coming in overnight...which also seems to be another common thing with the new climate.

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Checking the forecast...even this "cool down" seems muted. It was looking like low 50s for days, but now right back up to 60 on Sunday and then mid to upper 50s...maybe 60s again next week? 

You guys know I love cold. I am honestly discouraged that we can't even get below normal for a few consecutive days. :huh:

So much warmth!!!!

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deep storm system churning over James Bay will remain in place through most of the weekend. This feature will maintain a feed of very cool air in place through the period that will hold our temperatures at below normal levels. Fortunately, this is only the latter half of October. If this were during the heart of winter, this pattern would support significant lake snows.

weatherstory (40).gif

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