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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

F4EC9B26-34F7-4F53-89A4-8C26631D34BB.jpeg

Roughly half way through meteorological fall, and this has been the warmest such stretch on record by a long shot (almost a degree above 1881). This coming on the heels of one of the hottest summers on record. Not too surprising to see Lake Erie water temperatures setting daily record highs. Other recent warm falls on the top ten list include 2007, 2016, 2017, and 2018. It probably doesn't "feel" as warm as it actually is, because of how many recent years show up. 4 of the top 8 warmest early fall periods have occurred in the last six years.

image.png.781a80bf27366b656b450e43c68851d6.png

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An upper level trough will move across the region late in the work
week and persist through next weekend. Showers will spread across
western and north central NY ahead of a cold front Thursday-Friday.
The associated area of low pressure will be stretched along the cold
front to the north creating an area of increased convergence near
our region. A shortwave trough and exiting upper level jet will
create strong synoptic forcing which increases the chance for a
widespread, soaking rain through Friday.

Cold air will rush into the region Friday night into Saturday. Lake
effect rain showers will increase in coverage with 850mb
temperatures dropping to at least -2C. Some guidance depicts it may
be colder which could result in some snowflakes mixing in across the
higher terrain Saturday night-Sunday.

Temperatures start off in the low to mid 60s Thursday. They will
take a dive Friday and into the weekend with highs in the low 50s.
Lows will likely reach the 30s across the higher terrain beginning
Friday night.
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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

You finally tired of this ridiculous southern-like October?

I'm flying to Amsterdam tomorrow and then Berlin on the weekend.  Temps look chilly compared to what we've had the past 2 months.  At least today and tomorrow will acclimatize me a bit to cooler weather.

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1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

I was actually looking forward to it (first time ever?) to cycle the air and start drying things out.  We have a few things in the house that have swollen worse than any of the past 5 years of living here! 

Same thing here.  One bathroom door began sticking a bit, actually during Summer. Never saw that in past 15 years in this house. I started looking for door/hinge misalignment but everything looks tight.  Weird.

 

Another downpour from the lake just started.  With small graupel mixed in....A month later and this event would be Snowvemberish...

This could be my first frozen precip of season...

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51 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

Turned mine back on this morning too.  59° in the house with a forecast high of 47°, I figured it was time.

I turned my heat on yesterday. It was about 65 and the house had that damp feeling.  My wife had her Covid booster Saturday and she was complaining about being cold so I caved. I looked at the radar about an hour ago and thought we might be getting a break from the rain but the rain that was north of here has dropped south. So sick of this, it’s like Chinese water torture. My yard is like the Cicero swamp. 

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Whoop, there it is. Temperature forecast for Wednesday officially in the 70s. Been watching it go up and up each day...I knew it was coming. By the time Wednesday gets here, it'll hit 74-75 degrees here. Doesn't matter about sun angle... latitude.... etc...

Yeah, looks like the return of the SE ridge, at least for a few days , until the next cold front sweeps through, looking chilly by weeks end, low 50s and upper 30s..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9 (1).png

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50 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Same thing here.  One bathroom door began sticking a bit, actually during Summer. Never saw that in past 15 years in this house. I started looking for door/hinge misalignment but everything looks tight.  Weird.

 

Another downpour from the lake just started.  With small graupel mixed in....A month later and this event would be Snowvemberish...

This could be my first frozen precip of season...

I thought it was just me. My bedroom door had been shutting hard the last few weeks and the door jamb looked all out of sorts especially the bottom . I ended up reshiming it and it seems to straighten out yesterday.

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22 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Guys, gut thoughts on the upcoming season? I’ve seen some fairly pessimistic guidance over the last couple weeks and also some ok stuff. I’m hopeful but it’s just based on anecdotal lifetime experience. We’ve now endured three tepid winters and I feel like that cycle has run its course. 
I’m hoping on some prolonged cold and some solid LES. It would be nice to not be in the 50’s on Christmas! 
Can we avoid the dreaded SE ridge? Will November and April steal the cold? Will we only have one good month like last year? Or can pull out a freezer like early 2000’s? 
I, for one, think we are overdue for a blockbuster storm! A crippler! 
Lay down your predictions! 

My thoughts are we haven't had 3 years of below average snowfall in Buffalo since the 80s. Syracuse hasn't had 4 below average snowfall years in decades. The top analogs all look okay, once again the Pacific is going to control our weather. The best thing going for us is a weak polar vortex. Also temperature patterns go in 3-4 month cycles on average. October likely ends as the warmest October on record. September finished at +3.1, August at +5.3. We likely get at least one below average month between Nov-March, most likely 2.

In that case I see us finishing 5-10% above average snowfall with slightly above average temps. With a SE ridge, our region should feature many chances at synoptic events. I think farther NW than last years events. I think winter starts in Mid Nov and we see an earlier end to winter than the last few seasons. I think we get a warmer March/April then average. Bookmark this post to show me how wrong I was at the end of winter. 

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Whoop, there it is. Temperature forecast for Wednesday officially in the 70s. Been watching it go up and up each day...I knew it was coming. By the time Wednesday gets here, it'll hit 74-75 degrees here. Doesn't matter about sun angle... latitude.... etc...

Sizzle Sizzle...

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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not too far out either. That's a lake effect signal if I've ever seen one. Let's hope its 2nd half of November. Lots of temp issues for the first 2 weeks. 

There are some very good signals and astonishingly good agreement on the global models that November looks active and colder later in the month. Seeing the CFS show the only month above avg being December was also surprising. We might have a good chance at a decent winter this year.

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

There are some very good signals and astonishingly good agreement on the global models that November looks active and colder later in the month. Seeing the CFS show the only month above avg being December was also surprising. We might have a good chance at a decent winter this year.

The only month above average is January. That is our coldest month so even slightly above equates to snow in January. 

This is for Dec

cfs-mon_01_z500a_us_2.png

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