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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think that Rochester and Buffalo temp difference is kinda large

Well Watertown is +2.3 and they are closer to Lake Ontario and gets the W/SW breeze. Ontario is cooler than Erie by quite a bit due to its depth.  Lake Erie keeping Buffalo warmer than both Wat/Roc makes a ton of sense to me. Lake Erie is currently in mid to upper 70s. Not to mention SYR is +3.2 (same as BUF) on the month as well. I think the thermometer is correct at KBUF.

@SouthBuffaloSteve did you hear anything back from Buf NWS?

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In other words, a normal weekend and start of next week lol

To close out the end of the work week and start of the weekend,
model consensus has an upper level low to wobble across the Canadian
Maritimes. As the weekend progresses, a few waves of energy will
pivot around the cyclonic gyre before pulling northeast early in the
next upcoming work week. However, the model guidance packages
continue to hold differences in timing and placement of the waves of
energy. Overall, this translates to mainly dry weather Friday,
before slight chances for showers enter the forecast for each day of
the weekend due to the upper level energy pivoting across the area.

Otherwise, cool temperatures will continue throughout the end of the
work week, weekend and start of the next week. Highs Friday through
Monday will range in the 60s, with lows dropping into the 40s Friday
night and upper 40s to low 50s throughout the weekend.
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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I read it from a reputable source, can’t seem to find but basically what wolfie showed throughiness in northeast was supposed to be a ridge all week. 

Was popping in to say I hope I can get a good LES chase this season and y’all are talking tropical!

Originally it looked like we’d see some SE Canada ridging and a cutoff low south of New England that could force a close approach by Sam, but the guidance quickly shifted to bring the trough over NE. That does two things: first, it allows for a much cooler NW/northerly flow that’s persistent as the trough slowly meanders over or just east of the region and 2) keeps Sam out to sea or pulls it into Newfoundland.
 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Well Watertown is +2.3 and they are closer to Lake Ontario and gets the W/SW breeze. Ontario is cooler than Erie by quite a bit due to its depth.  Lake Erie keeping Buffalo warmer than both Wat/Roc makes a ton of sense to me. Lake Erie is currently in mid to upper 70s. Not to mention SYR is +3.2 (same as BUF) on the month as well. I think the thermometer is correct at KBUF.

@SouthBuffaloSteve did you hear anything back from Buf NWS?

Kinda?  This was the reply I received.  How do you make it out?  Like yes, the overnight temps are warmer because of UHI effects... but it is what it is?  It's just always the warm spot... always...  temps were all taken between 854-906 tonight.  1.3 degrees warmer then next warmest station... Next 10 closest stations were within 2.5 degrees of each other... KBUF is again an outlier...  Can question the accuracy of the PWS but its hard to when they are so consistently close in range with their numbers.1398222481_kbuftweet.png.f9f9aaa80f76aec8bdb451d3d083dc32.png 389518961_9-27906pm.png.9b11fda75a5adc53c61a9c216959db0d.png

  

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Interesting...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1015 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021
Wednesday night into Thursday, H85 temps lower to a chilly 0-1c in
wake of the front into Wednesday night. Weak cyclonic low-level flow
and additional synoptic low-level moisture along with sufficient
over-water instability (delta t/s over 15c) with north-northeast
flow across Lake Ontario resulted in increasing pops some for lake
effect on Wednesday night Genesee Valley to Finger Lakes. At the
least, will see a lot of lake effect clouds south and southeast of
Lake Ontario. So, despite the colder temps aloft, think min temps on
Wednesday night will not be as low as they could be due to some
clouds and fresh northerly winds behind the front. Min temps in the
40s will be common, but interior valleys of Southern Tier and higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario could briefly dip into the upper 30s.
Thursday will be cooler with highs ranging from the 50s to around
60. Temps on the lake plains may sneak into the lower 60s briefly on
Thursday afternoon.
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10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

Kinda?  This was the reply I received.  How do you make it out?  Like yes, the overnight temps are warmer because of UHI effects... but it is what it is?  It's just always the warm spot... always...  temps were all taken between 854-906 tonight.  1.3 degrees warmer then next warmest station... Next 10 closest stations were within 2.5 degrees of each other... KBUF is again an outlier...  Can question the accuracy of the PWS but its hard to when they are so consistently close in range with their numbers.1398222481_kbuftweet.png.f9f9aaa80f76aec8bdb451d3d083dc32.png 389518961_9-27906pm.png.9b11fda75a5adc53c61a9c216959db0d.png

  

Thanks, looks they re-calibrated just in case. In the end its hard to compare recreational stations vs professionally managed stations that are constantly monitored by meteorologists. You take KBUFs reading over the rest and it matches up well against other stations besides ROC. But in fall we all know Lake Erie keeps us way warmer than nearly every other major reporting station around here. ROC doesn't have a 75 degree lake 10 miles away that has a consistent W/SW breeze. Overnight lows are much warmer around here in the fall. 

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Sizzlercuse continues its reputation (at least to me...lol) as the high for today was already six degrees above forecasted at midnight (lol). Entered the day at 69 degrees because of the bloody Southwesterly wind that I loathe and seems to occur EVERY day here. Most of the rest of Upstate made it into the 50s with the next warmest being in the mid 60s. Our temperature climate here is almost equal to that of Long Island.

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Yeah sizzlecuse like buffalo takes a long time to cool down lol We all had high overnight lows as it took time for the cooler air to filter in..At midnight it was still 61/62 here and we hit our low around 8am (52)°, Dewpoints briefly dropped into the 40s.. Currently 55° and sunny..

Cold front came through late last night..

namussfc03wbg (1).gif

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13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Thanks, looks they re-calibrated just in case. In the end its hard to compare recreational stations vs professionally managed stations that are constantly monitored by meteorologists. You take KBUFs reading over the rest and it matches up well against other stations besides ROC. But in fall we all know Lake Erie keeps us way warmer than nearly every other major reporting station around here. ROC doesn't have a 75 degree lake 10 miles away that has a consistent W/SW breeze. Overnight lows are much warmer around here in the fall. 

I don't know... it just never looks right... Here is the 10 pm live reporting (KBUF updated 4 minutes prior to this grab at 958, all stations reported temps at 954pm ).  It's just not right that KBUF is running almost 5 degrees above every other location surrounding it.  You can question the recreational PWS data but look at how consistent the sites are across central Erie County.  The KBUF number is just such an outlier it should be tossed from the data set, not made the official #.  Even caught one of the local Spectrum News mets questioning the temp at KBUF on air tonight.  We have believers!693770546_9-28958pmwide.png.99466e5fa5817f4b85ee116aa9464442.png

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Ok…tonight’s the night!!! Clear skies, perfect radiation all cooling and at 10:15 it’s 55 at KBUF and 46 at UB North, a mesonet site, not an off brand thermometer. The winds are out of the NW at 3 so almost calm. IF the temps are radically different at KBUF tonight than around it’s nearby sites, then we have a clearer picture of the outside variables at work. 

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Ok…tonight’s the night!!! Clear skies, perfect radiation all cooling and at 10:15 it’s 55 at KBUF and 46 at UB North, a mesonet site, not an off brand thermometer. The winds are out of the NW at 3 so almost calm. IF the temps are radically different at KBUF tonight than around it’s nearby sites, then we have a clearer picture of the outside variables at work. 

Great minds think alike!  Posted that $#!& at the SAME TIME!  lol

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4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Great minds think alike!  Posted that $#!& at the SAME TIME!  lol

I’m firmly in the belief that the night time temps are most affected by this with the exception of very hot days…last years 97 and 98 ring a bell? This could change the daily average to almost being normal instead of the positive departure we have witnessed. This may not seem it but this is important.

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11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I don't know... it just never looks right... Here is the 10 pm live reporting (KBUF updated 4 minutes prior to this grab at 958, all stations reported temps at 954pm ).  It's just not right that KBUF is running almost 5 degrees above every other location surrounding it.  You can question the recreational PWS data but look at how consistent the sites are across central Erie County.  The KBUF number is just such an outlier it should be tossed from the data set, not made the official #.  Even caught one of the local Spectrum News mets questioning the temp at KBUF on air tonight.  We have believers!693770546_9-28958pmwide.png.99466e5fa5817f4b85ee116aa9464442.png

what time were these all recorded?

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m firmly in the belief that the night time temps are most affected by this with the exception of very hot days…last years 97 and 98 ring a bell? This could change the daily average to almost being normal instead of the positive departure we have witnessed. This may not seem it but this is important.

last years was confirmed to have an issue but KBUF replaced the broken part. This years data is fine. SYR is equal to KBUF with temps this year and they have no lake keeping them warm.

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