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September 2021 General Discussion


madwx
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13 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A lot of locations around here probably won't get much, if any, rain out of this stupid weekend system.  Earlier bullish models have crapped the bed.  A few+ days ago the GFS had showers and much cooler Thu/Fri, but instead we get sunny, dry, and mid 80s.  Ugh!

The avg high temp is below 70º now, and it will be 64º by day 10.  Models are suggesting another day or two of 80s, then 70s indefinitely.

Much of this warm season has been incredibly boring... one long dry stretch after another.

 

Screenshot_20211001-070919_Samsung Internet.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Chicago was +3.9 for the month, which tied for the 5th warmest September on record.

Because our 30-year normals keep changing (increasing) so fast, departure #'s aren't very meaningful anymore.  I prefer to focus on absolute temps.  As you said, 5th warmest September on record (high 79.8, low 60.7).

My apologies for being on a soap box...but the normals in Chicago are really getting out of hand.  Using the 1961-1990 period, the normal high/low on January 1st was 29/13 (mean 21F).  Using 1991-2020, it's 33/21 (mean 27F).  So, January 1st is, on average, 6F warmer than 30 years ago.  It's really sad and unbelievable... 

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2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Because our 30-year normals keep changing (increasing) so fast, departure #'s aren't very meaningful anymore.  I prefer to focus on absolute temps.  As you said, 5th warmest September on record (high 79.8, low 60.7).

My apologies for being on a soap box...but the normals in Chicago are really getting out of hand.  Using 1961-1990 normals, the normal high/low on January 1st was 29/13 (mean 21F).  Using 1991-2020, it's 33/21 (mean 27F).  So, January 1st is, on average, 6F warmer than 30 years ago.  It's really sad and unbelievable... 

I think both (departure and temp) are useful.  It's impressive that we are still pulling off significantly +  months with relative ease as the normals have risen.

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11 minutes ago, wxisfun said:

May as well go all out now, since global warming/climate change seems to be irreversible.

glad to be living it what will be the last inhabitable land in the world.   Gonna start building a tower to defend it.

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On 10/1/2021 at 12:50 PM, Hoosier said:
Chicago was +3.9 for the month, which tied for the 5th warmest September on record.

Warmest Septembers On Record:

1. 71.2° - 1931

2. 70.6° - 1908

3. 70.5° - 1960

4. 70.4° - 1971

5. 70.3° - 2021

5. 70.3° - 1925

7. 70.2° - 1978

7. 70.2° - 1881

9. 70.1° - 1906

10. 70.0° - 1939

10. 70.0° - 1921

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14 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:
Warmest Septembers On Record:
1. 71.2° - 1931
2. 70.6° - 1908
3. 70.5° - 1960
4. 70.4° - 1971
5. 70.3° - 2021
5. 70.3° - 1925
7. 70.2° - 1978
7. 70.2° - 2010
9. 70.1° - 1906
10. 70.0° - 1939
10. 70.0° - 1921

Sneak in 1881 there tied for 7th place. The only reason I know that is because I had to look it up, not seeing it on your list. That's the warmest September on record at Detroit. (2021 did not make the top 20).

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Sneak in 1881 there tied for 7th place. The only reason I know that is because I had to look it up, not seeing it on your list. That's the warmest September on record at Detroit. (2021 did not make the top 20).

No idea why, but for some reason I entered 2010 for 1881. Has been fixed above.


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21 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Because our 30-year normals keep changing (increasing) so fast, departure #'s aren't very meaningful anymore.  I prefer to focus on absolute temps.  As you said, 5th warmest September on record (high 79.8, low 60.7).

My apologies for being on a soap box...but the normals in Chicago are really getting out of hand.  Using the 1961-1990 period, the normal high/low on January 1st was 29/13 (mean 21F).  Using 1991-2020, it's 33/21 (mean 27F).  So, January 1st is, on average, 6F warmer than 30 years ago.  It's really sad and unbelievable... 

I just looked up the Jan avg, not avg for Jan 1st, but 1961-90 January is 2.5° warmer than 1991-20. Still significant but nowhere near 6°.

 

It does appear that 1961-90 was the aberration though.  As we all know station station sites change, both location and surrounding environment, but it's pretty typical to have 1961-90 by far the coldest normal set for any station in the Midwest.

 

Chicago's official January temperatures are currently 2.5° COLDER than they were when your grandparents were walking uphill barefoot in 6 feet of snow.

 

Chicago January avg/high low:

1901-30: 32/18

1931-60: 33/20

1961-90: 29/14

1991-20: 31/17

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Because our 30-year normals keep changing (increasing) so fast, departure #'s aren't very meaningful anymore.  I prefer to focus on absolute temps.  As you said, 5th warmest September on record (high 79.8, low 60.7).
My apologies for being on a soap box...but the normals in Chicago are really getting out of hand.  Using the 1961-1990 period, the normal high/low on January 1st was 29/13 (mean 21F).  Using 1991-2020, it's 33/21 (mean 27F).  So, January 1st is, on average, 6F warmer than 30 years ago.  It's really sad and unbelievable... 

Departures are actually more meaningful and significant now than before.

If you’re still putting up a +3.9° average departure for a given month, especially with the rise in averages over the years, it is more noteworthy.


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42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Also worth pointing out that the high temperature departure was greater than the low temperature departure at ORD in September.  I know warm mins will sometimes be used to act like it's "fake warmth" or something.

Yeah, i think the dry conditions really helped with that.  There were numerous days where afternoon heating really overperformed

 

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