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Fall 2021 Thread (September, October, November)


Carvers Gap
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Well, we are just one season away from winter.  Nice to have a respite from the heat this week as the remnants of Ida depart the area.  Thoughts and prayers for all of those affected by the hurricane along the Gulf Coast.  Rainfall along the far eastern valley has been steady but reasonable - more as you go west I am nearly certain.  This morning features light rain/drizzle and very low cloud decks.  Lows in the northern valley are supposed to get into the 50s during the next few nights, and that is welcome news!  Saw the first evidence of maples beginning to change color this morning.  There is this one maple in our neighborhood which always changes first.  Some of the dogwoods are beginning to show red in their leaves.  Sycamores along the river are showing some yellow.  For sure, some of that could be heat stress.  Well, it is the first day of meteorological fall.  I suspect this season will feature a quick snap to winter time temps late in the season.  I am thinking warm early-mid fall, and then a sudden flip to cold.   Somebody please fire-up an obs thread and also a banter thread for fall.

 

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This is my second favorite long range thread each year. 60 degrees out there right now and the humidity is non-existent compared to the last two weeks of drippy weather. Was looking forward to heading down to Lenoir City to actually enjoy the best weather of the young high school football season but they had to forfeit due to covid issues. BN temps and BN precip is the forecast for the 6-10 and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. As long as it's not hot and dry I'll take it. I always want to get through leaf season without a wildfire near my house, but about 2 or 3 of every 10 years they get pretty close. Last year the leaves got out of dodge here pretty fast. They were completely gone by Halloween. I went to Johnson City the first week of November and they were still awesome there. The black gum tree in my yard has had some red leaves for about a week now and the sycamore has been dropping leaves like fall already. My windshield was plastered with yellow leaves from it during the rain yesterday.

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Seeing some much AN temps showing up in the d8-10 period - just brutal stuff.  This would easily be a record breaking heat wave for someone in the forum area.  Really, really hope I am wrong.  Looks like the hottest air of the season.  Western areas of the forum are in the bullseye for now.  Worst of summer appears still ahead.  La Nina summers are the worst.

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The GFS looks way hotter in about a week over the Ark/La/Tex than the Euro or Canadian. The GFS is throwing out stuff about 10f hotter than those two. Oklahoma is over 110 in spots on the GFS. That heat bubbles into Memphis with 102 there. It's a big outlier right now so I have my doubts about its record heat coming to pass. 

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The 14th has mid 90s all of the way into northern Indiana on the 0z Euro.  The GFS has cooled considerably on this date with its 6z run.  Pulling for the 6z GFS at this point.  However, the GFS has consistently been showing incredible heat.  The Euro just recently jumped on board with a bit of a more modified(but very hot and expansive) heat wave.  There are a few solutions that sometimes manage to get a front through during that time frame.  8-9 days out, but not liking the recent majority of runs for that date.   Would certainly like to see the cooler solutions verify!

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Other models have finally come back to normal for next week as John noted the extreme temps seem dubious.  Need the Euro to back off today, and we may have some consensus for seasonably warm temps vs crazy hot.  Temps IMBY have dropped 5-7 degrees since the earlier runs re: next Tuesday.

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Spoke way too soon.  Models have returned this morning to near record heat for some in the forum area.  My point and click is now 93.   That is not a record high for Tuesday, but pretty sure it would be fo Wednesday.  I don't see a lot of support in modeling for that point and click, but the wx pattern with HP over us definitely supports very high temps. Really hate weather like this during fall.  It is not unprecedented, but I still don't like it.

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Spoke way too soon.  Models have returned this morning to near record heat for some in the forum area.  My point and click is now 93.   That is not a record high for Tuesday, but pretty sure it would be fo Wednesday.  I don't see a lot of support in modeling for that point and click, but the wx pattern with HP over us definitely supports very high temps. Really hate weather like this during fall.  It is not unprecedented, but I still don't like it.

2019 we had 90’s till the first weekend in October. Also in October that year, Knoxville only recorded 3 days of low temps in the 30’s and the lowest was 37°.


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My highest point and click is 86 over the next week. I don't see much on the 12z modeling that suggests any just crazy temperatures. Also grain of salt, but the GFS is advertising the first major cold front of fall in about 11 days or so. Looks like high temps would be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the upper 30s or low 40s. 

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Gfs is consistently dropping a nice front through the region between the 22-24th.  Euro also agrees.  I would say this will be the first major "cold snap" of fall and will easily start our leaf season.

 

This front is only 3-5 days away from pushing across the US. Seems like it's a legit pattern coming up.

 

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Weeklies (Euro) are showing signs of high latitude blocking towards the end of October.  Not sure we want that in place quite yet.  Would essentially mean ~6 week blocking episode if we go by 4-6 week pattern cycles.  Means mid-Dec could be warm.  Way too early to guess that.  However, early season blocking might be a good sign for winter...so there is that.  Looks to me like the summer heat is gone.

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On 9/10/2021 at 4:45 PM, John1122 said:

My highest point and click is 86 over the next week. I don't see much on the 12z modeling that suggests any just crazy temperatures. Also grain of salt, but the GFS is advertising the first major cold front of fall in about 11 days or so. Looks like high temps would be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the upper 30s or low 40s. 

Quoting this one because the GFS handled this cool snap pretty well at D11/12. 

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