Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

So to summarize, DT thinks it will be a cold and snowy winter...unless it isn't.

I don't mean to pick on DT, he clearly put the work in. But as others have been saying, do previous analogs/teleconnections have as much value as they once did?

Got down to 41F overnight, up to 52F already.

I got a chuckle at him saying it will be among the coldest, snowiest of 20 of the last 30 winters. That covers a lot of bases. 

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

This could be interesting. Just had some pretty strong winds for a couple of minutes, with a leaf squall.

Screenshot_20211113-130019_copy_1196x1232_copy_601x618.png.3d0ab36a2b4b4734f0dbe64068689fe1.png

All I know is that as waves started moving over me, I have been virga'd.  Not a drop out of any of it although it has been breezy.

So far my low has been 41 this morning and it's currently churning in the sky and 57 with dp 48.  Looks like most of the action is north and east.

radar19-11132021.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39.  So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit.  I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co.  Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter…

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, yak said:

First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39.  So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit.  I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co.  Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter…

I figured someone from the W or N saw some flakes. Although super wet, it's still flakes. None here but still windy w/some lighter rains...

42F 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Wow.  Looks like the yellow band just dissolved away as it approached NW Philly. :huh:  Maybe it broke up over the hills or something.  Temp is now down to 43 with dp 40 and have 0.06" from it so far. Winds are still gusty.

Weakened before it got here as well, still rained for a while. Sun's been out off and on for the last 15 minutes. Gonna blow some wet leaves, lol.

1113211440_HDR_copy_608x734.jpg.54685184c3eb65af3723118044c40a2b.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Back edge has blasted through and sun is out with clearing and blue sky overhead and to the west.  Even with a couple minutes of the yellow over me at the end (image of closest approach below), I still got hardly anything.  Currently 0.07".

Temp down to 42 and dp 39.  Mt. Holly just lofted a Wind Advisory.

radar32-11132021.png

20211113-nws-windadv-phi-severethunderstormwarning-freezewarning-windadv-severethunderstormwatch-phiarea.PNG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, yak said:

First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39.  So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit.  I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co.  Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter…

Cat paw!

And now it’s a gorgeous afternoon, temp down to 41F. Thought I heard some IP hitting the car but didn’t see anything “bounce”. I think it was just the wind making the rain drops hit extra hard.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
 
 

Tonight

 

A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
 
Currently not frozen 
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, RedSky said:
 
 
 

Tonight

 

A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
 
Currently not frozen 

Where would this alleged moisture to produce snow come from? I'm done with moisture (9:50pm) and a pretty sharp cutoff/no precip west then probably partly cloudy the rest of night...

39F

al.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Where would this alleged moisture to produce snow come from? I'm done with moisture (9:50pm) and a pretty sharp cutoff/no precip west then probably partly cloudy the rest of night...

39F

al.jpg

Tell you what at daybreak it's going to look like it snowed here the grass is soaked now. Most people will look outside and say hey we had snow.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Tell you what at daybreak it's going to look like it snowed here the grass is soaked now. Most people will look outside and say hey we had snow.

 

Anyone under 75 who thinks this should start searching for a senior living community w/mental care...or close family members should tell them "it's about that time".

37F North Wales and 35F Quakertown at 12:40am. Any precip is 50-100 miles off shore and bone dry to the W.... 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/13/2021 at 1:13 PM, RedSky said:

I got a chuckle at him saying it will be among the coldest, snowiest of 20 of the last 30 winters. That covers a lot of bases. 

 

If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA. 

NAO and AO both look to be trending negative as we head towards the later part of the month. May see some threats begin to materialize then. I think it was @Wentzadelphia who said Dec.5 as the first real threat in these parts and if things keep trending the way they have, that may not be a bad idea. GFS is already throwing out some fantasy material in the day 8/9 time frame even though the CMC and Euro want nothing to do with it. Things are looking pretty good though to begin Met winter though. Definitely could be a lot worse to begin the season. Cold air doesn't seem to be a problem like the beginning of last year though. Seems to be a ton around and lurking nearby towards the end of the month into Dec.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We did see our 1st snow flakes of the year overnight and this morning here in NW Chesco. Now while November is certainly not a snowy month - we average only 1.2" of snow. We have had some significant (+6") storms during the month. Of note just 3 years ago on November 15 into the 16th we picked up 7.3" of snow - our top 5 snowstorms in November were:
  1. November 15, 1906 (9.5")
  2. November 6, 1953 (8.6")
  3. November 15-16, 2018 (7.3")
  4. November 26, 1938 (7.0")
  5. November 4, 1910 (6.6")
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAO/AO/PNA all trending where we want them to be late month

 

nao.sprd2.gif

ao.sprd2.gif

 

pna.sprd2.gif

 

Still early enough in the season though where cold air is likely to be an issue in any event especially in the coastal plain. Regardless, should begin to see some threats appear late month into early December. Can't ask for much more heading into met winter.

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...