Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

Low this morning was 43 and it's currently sunny and 60 with dp 44.

Just seeing this new WPC product change for flood potential -

I suppose it makes it easier to deal with although I always interpreted a Flash Flood Watch as a sudden, short duration event vs a Flood Watch as something that could go on for some time (although they apparently still plan to use the FF Watch for certain circumstances).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's do a little game, choose over/under normal snowfall this winter at your location. Post your normal snowfall then choose if you think you'll be over or under. 

I average around 23" in a normal winter and I'm taking the under this year. Don't think we'll get a total shutout like 2 years ago but I think we see lots of nickle and dime events and snow to rain. I'm guessing 10-15" with maybe one SECS(4-8" all snow). 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Let's do a little game, choose over/under normal snowfall this winter at your location. Post your normal snowfall then choose if you think you'll be over or under. 

I average around 23" in a normal winter and I'm taking the under this year. Don't think we'll get a total shutout like 2 years ago but I think we see lots of nickle and dime events and snow to rain. I'm guessing 10-15" with maybe one SECS(4-8" all snow). 

Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February

Last February was cold with 30-40" snow and New England like snow depth so..

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February

Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. 

What's the last +12"+ December event in Philly? I feel a solid 4-8, 6-10 classic Dec 5 event this year

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had a low of 48 this morning but didn't hit 70 today - "only" 65 but it was still a pleasant fall day.

Currently 50 with dp 44.

CPC was calling for an above average temp and equal chances precip winter due to La Nina -

winteroutlook_seasonal_temperature_2021_

winteroutlook_seasonal_precipitation_202

I think it will depend on how strong (or weak) the La Nina becomes.  The chances for snow to rain are higher -

LaNina_winter_globe_updated_large_0.png

although last year's La Nina resulted in an above-normal amount of frozen precipitation in the CWA, but some of us had a couple events that were absolute sleetfests. :axe:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far this morning, all kinds of dry slots have opened up and I only started getting some rain about 5 am and then it sortof disappeared and then briefly returned and sortof went away. Currently have 0.26", with heavier bands to the west and east.  I just lifted and replanted a peony yesterday hoping to get it rained in so we'll see.

Since fronts are moving through (warm first and cold soon), my high so far just before the rain, was 63, with a low of 56 coming just after midnight.  Currently overcast, misty and 62, with dp the same. 

SPC SWDY1 did put the eastern part of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe -

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals..

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp

 

He's getting like JB w/hype forecast for cash. You can't predict winter forecast. If you get it right it's luck and nothing more. Glenn said it correct, too many variables. I'm glad he quit doing it...

ween.jpg

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/10/2021 at 2:46 PM, The Iceman said:

Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. 

There will be more cold than usual to tap this year. The TPV shows no signs of being bullied around like the past few. However, there is still a neutral AO that has shown some negative tendencies in cooler months. NAO has been in a background negative state since mid Sept and should show some decent HL blocking at times this winter.  With enso being in a weak/mod Nina state, and the TPV anchored, polar jet will be fast/progressive and very active. With lower heights forced under HL ridging at times, displacement of the PV into the NE down thru our region will occur. 

Won't argue we will have AN temps at times, but we should see some episodes of deep surface cad/non-snow frozen types. 

With that said, if NAO blocking can continue to show negative tendencies this year and force the powerful and active Polar jet to amplify and slide disturbances under us and around the bend, we could see an increased chance for deeper systems compared to average. I do like how we have seen the NAO and had it around most of last winter. Has certainly had an anomalous neg tendency last 12 months. Lets hope it doesn't flip positive, at least not for prolonged periods. Not sure we are going to be celebrating if we don't see the PJ visit the region via NAO ridging.

All or nothing pattern this winter. Have suspicion we are going to struggle thru a fast flow for periods and pulling our hair out with stretches of mid/upper 40s to low 50s during parts of the winter with generally tame weather. Then missing out on late developing Miller b's as they crush New England and Nova Scotia. Generally expecting slightly BN snowfall here with an increased chance for a bigger storm. Whoever cashes in if/when blocking appears will do very well, higher chances for a KU event.

Will also be interested to see how quickly enso goes into a nino state. Some guidance takes  Nina to mod/strong before quickly going neutral and eventually weak Nino. How strong Nina gets when it peaks before crashing with play a huge key in how the season unfolds. I could see this season going quickly AN snow if the -NAO is anywhere near as prevalent was last winter. Im banking on it not being like last winter but appearing every so often as ridging propagates poleward from Scandinavia. We shall see.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, RedSky said:

DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals..

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp

 

So to summarize, DT thinks it will be a cold and snowy winter...unless it isn't.

I don't mean to pick on DT, he clearly put the work in. But as others have been saying, do previous analogs/teleconnections have as much value as they once did?

Got down to 41F overnight, up to 52F already.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...