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Major Hurricane Larry


WxWatcher007
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14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

SHIPS annular index is 45, about halfway between not annular and annular.  It sort of looks annular.  Better informed people, annular or not?

Eric Webb calls it quasi-annular, but there are indications that increasing SW shear (shown more by ECMWF than GFS) and SSTs warming to 28.5-29C by tonight and tomorrow may make it hard for Larry to maintain annular status.
 

 

 

 

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12Z UKMET: 915 mb just 100 miles east of Bermuda!
 

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2021 0 19.0N 49.5W 933 106
0000UTC 06.09.2021 12 20.5N 51.4W 942 95
1200UTC 06.09.2021 24 21.7N 53.2W 931 106
0000UTC 07.09.2021 36 22.8N 54.6W 929 110
1200UTC 07.09.2021 48 24.1N 56.3W 919 113
0000UTC 08.09.2021 60 25.8N 57.7W 916 116
1200UTC 08.09.2021 72 27.5N 59.7W 918 118
0000UTC 09.09.2021 84 29.5N 61.7W 918 114
1200UTC 09.09.2021 96 31.9N 63.3W 915 116
0000UTC 10.09.2021 108 35.7N 63.3W 925 105
1200UTC 10.09.2021 120 40.8N 61.2W 929 105
0000UTC 11.09.2021 132 46.5N 55.5W 943 85
1200UTC 11.09.2021 144 52.3N 48.3W 971 46

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET: 915 mb just 100 miles east of Bermuda!
 

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2021 0 19.0N 49.5W 933 106
0000UTC 06.09.2021 12 20.5N 51.4W 942 95
1200UTC 06.09.2021 24 21.7N 53.2W 931 106
0000UTC 07.09.2021 36 22.8N 54.6W 929 110
1200UTC 07.09.2021 48 24.1N 56.3W 919 113
0000UTC 08.09.2021 60 25.8N 57.7W 916 116
1200UTC 08.09.2021 72 27.5N 59.7W 918 118
0000UTC 09.09.2021 84 29.5N 61.7W 918 114
1200UTC 09.09.2021 96 31.9N 63.3W 915 116
0000UTC 10.09.2021 108 35.7N 63.3W 925 105
1200UTC 10.09.2021 120 40.8N 61.2W 929 105
0000UTC 11.09.2021 132 46.5N 55.5W 943 85
1200UTC 11.09.2021 144 52.3N 48.3W 971 46

If it does hit Bermuda (I count eyewall, myself, especially for a small island, as a hit), it isn't a fish.

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3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Pretty solid model agreement that the core should miss Bermuda to the east, seems the westward shifts from early on have stopped/even reversed a bit. Good chance they get TS-force winds out of the north as it passes by, though.

a few GEFS and EPS members moved west over Bermuda at 18z...

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Proud to say that I’m not a snob for sexy Hurricanes, like Ida, and love a big ole fat truck tire like Larry. Last ERC gave us the biggest eye in the Atlantic in recent memory! Storm is a beast, also ACE is going to be through the roof with this one

Well according to One person it’s in Poor shape 

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Larry has a huge circulation. But its new massive eyewall might be moving just fast enough with respect to oceanic heat content to do something special over night, perhaps not seen in the Atlantic since Isabel: A giant annular intensifying major hurricane. Category four intensity seems in reach as the presentation continues to improve. Could it make a run at Isabel's lofty status as the most powerful annular 'cane? If it can maintain forward motion enough to avoid its own upwelling we could definitely see some significant intensification here. But Isabel is the rarest of the rare, so probably no...7c48518c7d8efd432a0d5aac643e643a.gif

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20 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Rare and pretty cane18a510e196ac255dd0ac7f37adc11da9.jpg

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

That reminded me of a "rare and different tune", Terrapin Station. Then it hit me that if Larry was cruising along to a song, it would be that song -- growing, spinning, never ending....

While crickets and cicadas sing
a rare and different tune
Terrapin station
In the shadow of the moon, terrapin station
And I know we'll be there soon, terrapin
I can't figure out, terrapin
if it's the end or beginning, terrapin
But the train's put it's brakes on, terrapin
And the whistle is screaming, terrapin
 

 

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That reminded me of a "rare and different tune", Terrapin Station. Then it hit me that if Larry was cruising along to a song, it would be that song -- growing, spinning, never ending....
While crickets and cicadas sing
a rare and different tune
Terrapin station
In the shadow of the moon, terrapin station
And I know we'll be there soon, terrapin
I can't figure out, terrapin
if it's the end or beginning, terrapin
But the train's put it's brakes on, terrapin
And the whistle is screaming, terrapin
   
You welcome!

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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