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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well yes one of these things is not like the other because they are two different datasets with two different resolutions, pretty colors aside. 

Where have you even seen info about this walk back of July 2021? Personally do I believe stories should be corrected yes, but it's also a fraction of a degree so I don't expect newsflashes from the media to report the change in September. They could barely cover it for more than a day in July.

he wants major news outlets to publish "CLIMATE CHANGE CANCELLED" headlines

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Vegetation has a shelf life. Very obvious now with weeds, grapes, vegetables all dying that slow death. Lots of leaves falling as well. Chlorophyll will change based on light and water its inevitable. 

Yep, time to move to the lawn thread for fall yard work.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

9-1 to 9-16 BDL Ave went up .5 shown and proven. We are not discussing the whole month.

I think his point was if you look at 9/16 under the old normals published a decade ago, BDL's normal mean temp was 63.8. With the new normals put out a couple months ago by NCEI that's bumped up to 64.8 hence his comment about the increase by 1 degree.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Why does it mean below normal?  Broke back means it's not 90F every day anymore.  You're daily averages so far this month are like 78/55 it looks like.

Averages are tanking right now.   +3 in August to +1 in September will still yield a fairly sizeable drop off in sensible weather.

The TAN temperatures have averaged 5.6F colder for the maxes and 9.0F colder for the mins these last two weeks than they did in August.  That seems like it would be noticeable?

Meh... kind of subjective there tho.   I can see his point from a purely meteorological perspective. 

Sensibly?  we take risk in assessing using 'the feel' ...because suppose if it were some unworldly 108 F all summer *bear with*, then it was 90 ... we'd be saying, 'phew! least we broke the back...'

Obviously you already know this and that there is some relativity to the subjectivity of that consideration.

But for me, I look at the circulation medium.  The 582 has to descend beneath latitude in question, and not return being impetus  We are rollin' 588's back to almost the ST L latitudes, but getting lucking because we are also rollin' confluence N of there, and it is 'cheating' in send continental tucking air only here. Back to the sensible appeal, my fam in K-zoo out there in Michigan said just the other day that it has not been fall there at all so far. 

Having said that ...  I think there is also a bit of a difficulty now that is part of CC, where these transition seasons are showing hugely disparate regime changes across short period of times.  Like last year...when nearing Halloween there was a modest snow event in the region, and then we spend nearly a week close to 80 with the sun setting at 4:39 pm in November.  It was weird.  Almost like the antithesis to the Feb/Mar 80 days that have happened in recent decade...

Point being, the distinctions are getting blurred.  The more dependable orderly climate model of shedding 90s...then 80s...then 70s --> 40s eventually, seems to be disrupted, making it both hard to know -if one wants to base it on sensible weather - but also offers a marvelous trigger for petty internet squabbles.  Haha

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7 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Can someone post the monthly departures for HVN and BDR? Its been an absolute furnace here and the overnight lows have been running crazy high.  Every night is like a 70+ min here.  BDR I think tied its record max yesterday of 86. 

 

BDR is +1.4.

8 of 15 days have been below normal and 7 above normal.  Looks like the past 4-5 days brought the month from below normal to above.

Untitled.jpg.7d572710ee404437a9625a69ffed63d8.jpg

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's friggin' gross out now.  Dews in the mid 60s.

We're getting murk-packed into eastern sections.

The NVA/low level clearing ability is delaying because there isn't a whole helluva lot of momentum to this front that limped through.

As I posted a while ago, there is a secondary boundary/tuck flow moving into NE sections, and there is DP erosion behind that feature.   PSM is into the lower 50s...as is PWM...and Manchester, NH is also 59 ... Meanwhile, it's jamming into a region that won't mix out so it's probably pooling 68/64 afternoon. 

The southern Maine Coast is a gem day.  Probably 74/53 with a billion miles of visibility beneath irrelevant but all important aesthetic fractal CU

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

69/53 under 100% sunshine.  Upper 60s, breeze, dry air and cobalt blue sky.  This feels closer to autumn than summer so it's easy to see how our opinions are different :lol:.

Yesterday was the first day I ran my AC all month. Dehumidifier downstairs a couple of times. 70/64 here no AC needed. 

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PF clearly enjoyed the broke back at the mountain , in all seriousness the definition of breaking the back of summer are very subjective . 
 

The reemergence of a AN pattern puts a bigger thorn In the side of the broken back of summer argument along the CP of SNE where AN data in mid September  is still uncomfortable to many compared to Stowe 

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44 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well yes one of these things is not like the other because they are two different datasets with two different resolutions, pretty colors aside. 

Where have you even seen info about this walk back of July 2021? Personally do I believe stories should be corrected yes, but it's also a fraction of a degree so I don't expect newsflashes from the media to report the change in September. They could barely cover it for more than a day in July.

With 95% confidence levels of .19 degree, do you think the massive press releases of hottest July ever were warranted under your scientific reasoning.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm fine with the summer wx. More time outdoors. Late Fall and Winter are going to be a mess, so lets hope for good snows. 

Summer as summer should be. People ending summer Sept 1 or Labor day haven't lived here long or have a misconception of Met summer which is put in place for standardized record keeping.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Excuse me, I said the world is warming but won't take non facts thrown out like candy off a firetruck at a parade. Fact is for BDL for the period 9-1 to 9-16 the normals went up .3 degrees. Go home little man your forum is calling you.

Screenshot_20210916-121339_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20210916-121355_Chrome.jpg

 

4 minutes ago, Heat Miser said:

Wasn't it .3 like an hour ago?

 

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2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

A lot of anger today, and I thought burnouts were supposed to be chill and happy go-lucky-people

Drunk? Who is angry? Who is a burnout? You really hate discussions. Did you go back and compare Euro Ens to actual temps for the area shown or was it just another one of your off the hook posts there BIRVING

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I think it affects the length of colorful fall foliage.  But the end will come at a similar time each year.  Maybe you drag color out for a month or they are stubborn and stay green then all go at once…. But there’s a point that is very consistent up here when trees finally say “we done” regardless of weather.  It’s around the 2nd week of October.

A week sooner or a week later is just noise on foliage.

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