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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That run went wild. Wraps up last minute for more heavy rain and strong winds here.

This is one hell of a setup for a high end rainfall event IMO. Don't really care much about wind potential until we're closer. Someone is going to see a significant flash flood event, but where the stripe of most efficient rain production is still a bit of an open question (though PA is probably in trouble). 

That said, even a widespread area of high but not extreme rainfall is going to be bad for smaller rivers and creeks. Especially here. 

I know Elsa and Fred were big rain producers, but the widespread nature of 2-4" rainfall on the guidance has me wondering the last time we saw anything like that from a tropical standpoint. 

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Ensemble getting pretty up there relative to climatology. WPC discussion notes the possibility for a high risk at some point, though most likely somewhere in PA. Gotta watch where the f-gen is strongest. Someone is going to get smoked where that moisture converges near the hung up front.

GFS.png

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9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Ensemble getting pretty up there relative to climatology. WPC discussion notes the possibility for a high risk at some point, though most likely somewhere in PA. Gotta watch where the f-gen is strongest. Someone is going to get smoked where that moisture converges near the hung up front.

GFS.png

Yeah, it’s ugly. Nothing to scoff at up here too in CT. High resolution models will be crazy lol. 

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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro starting to trend south still 3 to 5 from about the pike south

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS a little south too. 

 

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Gfs and uncle further south gives us some but not as much as earlier.. Nam north I dont think we really know until tomorrow the earliest

So not a north trend?  ;)

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Damn today might be the last pool day of the year. Euro has 5 inches of rain this week and a 59/54 day Thursday then mid 70s over upper 50s low 60s next 10 days. With shorter days, lower sun angle, and low dews that signals a death knoll for pool temps. Some summers end late September this one is rolling up the carpet very early. Not to say it won't get warm mid month on but by then its too late. Oh well twas a good run in June and August.  4 pool overflows though if this week pans out. Water water everywhere. Lets see if a CT station can break the all time 71 inch record for the year.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He wants it so badly not to rain and whiff . Meanwhile it may flood to Dendy if north trends continue 

It will rain, but annoying to have a pedestrian event ruin the day. May as well get 5"+ to make it worthy. Just not sure that is here...maybe S coast?

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