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Major Hurricane Ida


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The clustering below of big bad storms reminds of me some periods in the 1930s and 1960s. 

Carla (1961), Hilda (1964), Betsy (1965), Beulah (1967) Camille (1969) for some comparable Gulf monsters to the recent four. That period from 1964-1969 was pretty rough down there.

Freeport (1932), 1933 - several Gulf Coast hits and a nasty stronger Isabel too for the NE, Hurricane "1" in 1934 is kind of legendary in some ways, 1935 had the five in the Keys, and then 1938 had the New England hurricane and a hurricane hit the central Gulf. 1933 is a nuts season, but 1932 doesn't really get it's due.

Image

Carla: 1961 (931 mb right before Landfall, similar spot to Laura, likely similar to Laura for winds too)
Hilda: 1964 (950 mb at landfall) - stronger Oct 1964 version of Delta in October 2020 (970 mb)
Betsy: 1965 (942 mb, hit right near Houma like Ida)
Beulah: 1967 (950 mb landfall S. Texas, lots of floods and tornadoes)
Camille 1969 (900 mb just around landfall - 175 mph winds based on observations)
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4 hours ago, Tezeta said:

You put the actual landfall zone into a lower category and got the timing wrong…but a+ forecast dude. Looking forward to the next one!

You are looking at the First Call map from Thursday....I was on the wrong side of Terrabonne Bay...pretty close for 72 hrs lead...Final from early Sunday AM got the exact town correct and was 90 minutes too slow. 

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I like to compare the old footage to the new footage for hurricanes in similar areas.

Ida:

 

Carla: Lots of electrical grid damage here - 

 

Hurricane Hilda:

Hurricane Betsy: - the modern levee system was designed to prevent another Betsy. Kinds of a legendary storm.

Hurricane Beulah: Another amazing system

Hurricane Camille:

 

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11 hours ago, Prospero said:

It is typical for this forum and every other storm forum that I have visited or participated in, that as a big storm approaches the activity is crazy and even hard to keep up with as it approaches. Leave for a couple hours, and hard to catch up.

But then, after landfall; smoke a cigarette. The activity is slow. I swear.

The excitement of a storm approaching, when will the climax be, where, how "good," etc.

Yet really that is the beginning of the story. Yea fun to watch the sats and the chasers, Weather Channel on TV, so on. It is fun, even though we all say how much we care about everyone in the path.

For people who do care, the story just begins. And just look at how slow the forum is now. I say most people want death and destruction, even many mets. I get it, kind of, of course.

But really we will start to see what Ida did over the next days. And oh my, it was horrible.

This is when the forums should be active as well. But I bet my post sits for a while before anyone else even reads it.

;)

 

 

 

There’s a level of enthusiasm for weather and meteorology, and hurricane tracking, that’s understandable and a lifelong passion for many.  

And then there’s sociopathy.

Helpful to understand the difference, and not claim exemption due to “muh weather forum.” 

 

 

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https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ida/index.html#18/29.35812/-90.25239
NOAA has some aerial imagery up, mainly along major access roads.
Things clearly visible: Flooding in Jean Lafitte. Structural damage from wind along Route 1 NW of Grand Isle Through Great Meadow-Galiano- Cut off Etc. 
Smith is now breaking these down so it may be a little more convenient for some via Twitter.

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Ida may end up remembered as much for its extensive widespread flooding over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region as its impacts on the Gulf Coast here in the coming days. The mesoscale models are pumping out some insanely high totals over a large region. Oh, and look here, me posting the NAM in a tropical thread; whereby, inland flooding from baroclinic influences upon a surface low and frontogenesis, which is more within its wheelhouse of intended usage. The HRRR is showing much the same as is the RAP. Hope these are just being way overdone. Otherwise, Ida isn't done with the news cycles anytime soon.
f2d902d76828969cb94820148e99e39a.jpg8d8530dd0516b8951582d9e7fe43c410.jpg8a784245e3704205a5c9a5bf4c888d18.jpg

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thinking river-problem-wise, here's where I am seeing the most potential river flooding flooding problems, given the latest ensembles and latest op runs.

 

  • Susquehanna River - south of Bloomsburg/Sunbury gauge-points.
  • Delaware River - near/south of Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton
  • Lehigh River - All points south of Francis Walter Dam
  • Schuykill river - full length
  • all north/central NJ river systems away from the Delaware Basin
  • Potomac River - all points downstream from Cumberland Md, including DC.

this doesn't include local creeks and streams, where local heavy rainfalls will make things more problematic, for shorter times, as well as urban street flooding.

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On 8/29/2021 at 9:33 PM, jojo762 said:

This is that dude who's stream everybody had to, very unfortunately, listen to earlier.

As a veteran storm chaser and one who was stranded in Mexico Beach (because I lost my car to the surge by placing myself within 400 yards of the GOM and in the RFQ of the inner-eyewall of hurricane Michael), I have very little sympathy for chasers who intentionally get too close and THEN, except others to risk their own lives to help/save them!

When I made the aforementioned similar/foolish decision, I accepted responsibility for my actions and dealt with the consequences (which weren’t fun).   

I could be wrong, but there seems to be too many chasers trying to one-up the others and their corresponding attention-seeking, selfie-centered attitude has been leading to more of these situations.  Unfortunately, I expect we’ll continue to see this occur on a more regular basis, as the years go by.

To avoid any misinterpretations, I want to clarify that my issue isn’t that they chose to get that close, but rather, the expectation that someone should help them…that would require someone else to endanger their own lives in the process.  
 

P.S. Mods, please move this post to banter if you feel it belongs there, instead.  

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5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Ida may end up remembered as much for its extensive widespread flooding over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region as its impacts on the Gulf Coast here in the coming days. The mesoscale models are pumping out some insanely high totals over a large region. Oh, and look here, me posting the NAM in a tropical thread; whereby, inland flooding from baroclinic influences upon a surface low and frontogenesis, which is more within its wheelhouse of intended usage. The HRRR is showing much the same as is the RAP. Hope these are just being way overdone. Otherwise, Ida isn't done with the news cycles anytime soon.
f2d902d76828969cb94820148e99e39a.jpg8d8530dd0516b8951582d9e7fe43c410.jpg8a784245e3704205a5c9a5bf4c888d18.jpg

Question: why did the precip max setup inland instead of more in the I-95 corridor? Does it have something to do with elevation? Or is it just the storm track?

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from NWS-WPC storm summaries.  web page:    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

Quote
...Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier
in the event...

...ALABAMA...
MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT                54                    

...FLORIDA...
PENSACOLA INTL AIRPORT                 54                    

...LOUISIANA...
PORT FOURCHON                         172 SHIP IN PORT 5 19 5
VENICE 24 S                           128                    
GOLDEN MEADOW 2 NNW                   125                    
GALLIANO 3 ENE                        122 UF MESONET TOWER 5 1
VENICE 26 S                           121                    
GRAND ISLE 42 SSE                     117                    
DULAC 2 NNW                           110                    
NEW ORLEANS 5 SSE                      99                    
RACELAND                               99                    
GRAND ISLE 3 NE                        95                    
NEW ORLEANS INTL AIRPORT               90                    
MANDEVILLE 12 SSW                      86                    
LAPLACE 4 NE                           84                    
WAGGAMAN 1 NE                          82                    
VENICE 9 SE                            81                    
GONZALES 1 N                           80                    
BURNS POINT 16 SE                      63                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
GULFPORT-BILOXI INTL AIRPORT           68                    
BUDE 3 S                               67  

 

Quote
...LOUISIANA...
RIGOLETS-SLIDELL 8 SSE              15.73                    
NEW ORLEANS                         13.73                    
NAPOLEAN 2 NW                       11.27                    
FOLSOM                              10.67                    
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN                  10.19                    
SLIDELL AIRPORT                      9.19                    
METAIRIE                             8.81                    
COVINGTON                            7.68                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
BAY ST LOUIS 1.4 WSW                13.12                    
MOSS POINT 1.2 NNW                  12.54                    
KILN 6.6N                           12.14                    
BILOXI 13.1 NNW                     12.08                    
TRENT LOTT INTL AIRPORT             12.00                    
GULFPORT-BILOXI INTL ARPT           10.72                    
HANCOCK                             10.66   

 

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

That looks real bad. Lots of houses completely gone as well.

Fits the term “catastrophic” for me. What’s crazy is surge looked to be very high and caused a large portion of the damage, but wind damage looks just as severe with many homes having their entire second stories shredded away and even apparent well-built homes having major damage as well. This was one of the most high-end wind impacts in history for the US. Just a historic storm all around 

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7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Serious damage in Grand Isle:

 

Those images look way too familiar to what I observed in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael in Mexico Beach.  The bare slabs and the shredded upper-levels of some homes are eerily similar!    
 

It was every bit of a high-end category four wind producer combined with a catastrophic storm surge.  Goes to show that it doesn’t technically have to be a category-five hurricane to produce catastrophic damage!

 I like the way 130 kt is characterized as a super Typhoon in the WPAC as a TC of such intensity is truly a “super” destructive storm.   

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