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Major Hurricane Ida


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      ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA        08/28/21  18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)      Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   20.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.84          14.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :   10.7     30.1  to    2.3        0.70           5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   88.0      0.0  to  151.8        0.58           4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :    8.2     36.6  to    2.8        0.84           7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   90.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.62           4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  212.2    895.4  to  -55.0        0.72           4.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    0.3      2.9  to   -2.9        0.45           2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   67.3     28.3  to  146.3        0.33           1.0 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   31.0    -29.7  to  185.9        0.28           0.8 %area of TPW   SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  52% is  10.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  56% is   5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  46% is   6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  39% is  10.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  30% is  12.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  21% is   4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)    Matrix of RI probabilities------------------------------------------------------------------------------  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72------------------------------------------------------------------------------   SHIPS-RII:    52.3%   56.1%   45.6%   39.1%   29.9%   20.6%   12.2%    0.0%    Logistic:    26.0%   42.2%   32.2%   17.4%    8.8%   12.1%    9.3%    1.2%    Bayesian:    26.0%   55.7%   25.6%   53.5%   15.3%    5.7%    0.1%    0.0%   Consensus:    34.8%   51.4%   34.4%   36.7%   18.0%   12.8%    7.2%    0.4%       DTOPS:    46.0%   21.0%   19.0%   15.0%    2.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%


 

55kt increase is a 5...

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some folks are posting that traffic is backed up on I-10 from NOLA to freaking Mobile, AL.  Not great.

That tunnel in Mobile backs up terribly before the bay. It’s awful that such a vital road is 2 lanes each way for a significant portion and then has a complete choke of that caliber
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9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

No 2 storms are ever the same and that's the beauty of wx/forecasting. Ultimately the next 12 to 18 hours and any RI will prob be what determines if this goes down as one of the greats or overhyped.

I have an issue with the term "overhyped"...because it can't be hype if the worst is a legit possibility. If it doesn't happen, not anybody's fault for over-selling!

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I have an issue with the term "overhyped"...because it can't be hype if the worst is a legit possibility. If it doesn't happen, not anybody fault for over-selling!

The rapid intensification could be overhyped if it doesnt materialize (even though it likely will). From a weather perspective, it could be overhyped. From a life/property perspective you have a point.

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It's been a long time since I've seen a sat loop of a strengthening Hurricane with such a low shear environment as Ida. There's nothing remotely close to it to impede intensification

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Day-Cloud Phase showing an eye that is trying to clear out. Curious to see what happens in the next 2-4 hrs.

1197634460_Idaeyepop.thumb.gif.239721548e8dd9da19d5499b54f21acd.gif

 It looks a thousand times better right now than it did a few hours ago. I think people just aren't impressed because they've been expecting RI this entire time. With almost nothing to impede development this has a lot of time to gradually gain strength until landfall tomorrow evening

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Day-Cloud Phase showing an eye that is trying to clear out. Curious to see what happens in the next 2-4 hrs.

1197634460_Idaeyepop.thumb.gif.239721548e8dd9da19d5499b54f21acd.gif

That’s a fairly classic look, no? Again my eye is very untrained/weenie but it looks rather scary at the moment.

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Advanced Dvorak Technique doesn't always best describe it...

On a serious note, that's a nice demonstration of the NW of track deviation that has been observed of late. 

09L.gif

I thought people were saying it was wobbling NE of track? 
 

I literally don’t know what to think lol.

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4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

That’s a fairly classic look, no? Again my eye is very untrained/weenie but it looks rather scary at the moment.

It is. Just basically has that final hurdle to clear the eye and then all systems go. I wasn't expecting the storm to really go bonkers till tonight. Still much within the envelope. 

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It is. Just basically has that final hurdle to clear the eye and then all systems go. I wasn't expecting the storm to really go bonkers till tonight. Still much within the envelope. 

Seeing some symmetry in convective bursts as well, at least relative to this morning. Tonight will be very interesting as it traverses the warmest part of the loop current at Dmax

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It is. Just basically has that final hurdle to clear the eye and then all systems go. I wasn't expecting the storm to really go bonkers till tonight. Still much within the envelope. 

Exactly. Instability increases at night with cooler temps aloft, which should allow this thing to really continue ramping up at night over the Loop. I really wouldn’t be shocked if we saw this thing roll in at 150+ the way it’s strengthening during the day time
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Just now, TriPol said:

If we're 6 mph less than a Cat 3, I would've fudged the numbers a bit to get people to evacuate. 

Then you run the risk of recon getting in their and proving you very wrong. A special update can go out if needed. 

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2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If we're 6 mph less than a Cat 3, I would've fudged the numbers a bit to get people to evacuate. 

I understand the sentiment but it's important to be accurate with your reporting.  Unfortunately we live in a country where science is already not trusted by many, fudging numbers to reach the next cat does not help that cause any.  I am sure the people who are going to get out are already doing so. 6mph isn't going to change many minds. 

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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