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Major Hurricane Ida


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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

The deepening depicted on these models in the 12 hours before landfall is absolutely astonishing 

Yeah, I mean there's virtually no shear and continued high ssts. She looks great as is it, in less than perfect conditions.

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14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

I don’t remember how models did with Rita but they’ve been tightly clustered on a landfall location with this one the last day or so. I think track confidence is fairly high at this point. Margin for error is still probably big enough for New Orleans to miss out on the worst of it, but still seems prudent in this case to give people more time to evacuate than wait for a last second scramble when it’s too late, especially given the potential for a major upon landfall.

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

It’s going to be there in two days. It’s now or too late.

 

It’s better to be safe to avoid a tragedy.

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3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

I don’t remember how models did with Rita but they’ve been tightly clustered on a landfall location with this one the last day or so. I think track confidence is fairly high at this point. Margin for error is still probably big enough for New Orleans to miss out on the worst of it, but still seems prudent in this case to give people more time to evacuate than wait for a last second scramble when it’s too late, especially given the potential for a major upon landfall.

The probably with Rita if I remember correctly is how massive the stated evacuation was and some bad communication where far too many people from Houston on high ground evacuated who shouldn't have. 

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46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

Hurricane track accuracy has improved a ton since 2005. It might not seem like it but it's gotten much more accurate in the past 16 years. Especially for a storm 3 days out I think we have a good idea where it's heading.

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It seems the current track has the center going between San Juan y Martínez (which has a elevation of 70ft)

And Guane which has an elevation around 82ft. 

 

If it was tracking more to the East, maybe the terrain there would of had a little more of an effect (200-300ft). Even then, it wouldn’t be that much imo.

 

Edit: Looking at the last 2 frames it looks like it took a good step west.  
 

might go over Sandino area. Which has an elevation around 33ft.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Castaway said:

It seems the current track has the center going between San Juan y Martínez (which has a elevation of 70ft)

And Guane which has an elevation around 82ft. 

 

If it was tracking more to the East, maybe the terrain there would of had a little more of an effect (200-300ft). Even then, it wouldn’t be that much imo.

 

Edit: Looking at the last 2 frames it looks like it took a good step west.  
 

might go over Sandino area. Which has an elevation around 33ft.

Eh, whatever downtown valley you are using for those elevations is not representative of the elevation of those surrounding areas.

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 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  61% is  12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  82% is   7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is  11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  70% is  17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  53% is  22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  73% is  15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  47% is  10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  31% is   5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

SHIPS RI probs are going berserk now, as expected.

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11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

168045564_Screenshot2021-08-27144431.png.9edf622aa1312fa2881db2dc605b295f.pngLooks like the eyewall is almost fully wrapped and an eye is trying to form? Might just be over-analyzing considering its Friday and nothing is happening in class but I dunno looks like an eye.

 

Not an eye. The actual center is still squarely over the island, not just off of the island.

 

pdeMAXw01a (1).gif

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9 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I think I read somewhere that the criterion for RI is an increase in wind speed of 35 mph in a 24 hour period or a 20 mb drop in 24 hours.  This storm will rapidly intensify.

Already has, in fact. The intensification of the storm into a Cat 1 today from a TD yesterday more than qualifies as RI. Question is really how many times this storm pulls it off.

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Would this disrupt the core? 
Isla de la Juventud / Isle of Youth is very low elevation. It is also surrounded by the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic Basin. It might slow intensification but the core bands will be able to pull sufficient evaporation that it should avoid disruption. The western region of Cuba would be more of a deterrent to intensification or at least halt it until it clears it and moves into the SE GOM. There could be some disruption over Western Cuba.
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24 minutes ago, andyhb said:
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  61% is  12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  82% is   7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is  11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  70% is  17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  53% is  22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  73% is  15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  47% is  10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  31% is   5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

SHIPS RI probs are going berserk now, as expected.

Somehow, these almost feel too low… However, given how quickly Ida ramped up today, I do wonder if that also raises the chances of an ERC later on that “robs” Ida of additional intensification. 

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Somehow, these almost feel too low… However, given how quickly Ida ramped up today, I do wonder if that also raises the chances of an ERC later on that “robs” Ida of additional intensification. 

It appears that was what the Euro was hinting, down to 939, back up to over 950 down again into the 940s before landfall

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32 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I think I read somewhere that the criterion for RI is an increase in wind speed of 35 mph in a 24 hour period or a 20 mb drop in 24 hours.  This storm will rapidly intensify.

I think it’s just the wind, not the pressure drop.

27 minutes ago, andyhb said:
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  61% is  12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  82% is   7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is  11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  70% is  17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  53% is  22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  73% is  15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  47% is  10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  31% is   5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

SHIPS RI probs are going berserk now, as expected.

That’s about as high as you’ll ever see. Very impressive.

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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