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Major Hurricane Ida


WxWatcher007
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Here's a short description of what that's showing exactly, for those unfamiliar. 

The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot.

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10 hours ago, yotaman said:

Wow, looks like a nuclear explosion right over Cuba. Impressive.

 

Can someone please explain how this happens, and what it is?  It does not look natural at all.  Something similar happened with Henri as well off the coast of NC/VA area that was pointed out as well.  It is very strange to say the least (to my undereducated mind as a met noob).  Thanks!

(mods, sorry if this is not an acceptable post in storm mode...please forgive my ignorance on posting rules as I typically only lurk to read interesting information)

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5 minutes ago, gopack42 said:

Can someone please explain how this happens, and what it is?  It does not look natural at all.  Something similar happened with Henri as well off the coast of NC/VA area that was pointed out as well.  It is very strange to say the least (to my undereducated mind as a met noob).  Thanks!

(mods, sorry if this is not an acceptable post in storm mode...please forgive my ignorance on posting rules as I typically only lurk to read interesting information)

Frictional convergence/orographical lift off the mountains. Wasn’t exactly invoked by the eye producing its own hot tower via oceanic content.  Rather lift off the mountain range , probably just really good timing. 

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7 
URNT12 KWBC 281019
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL092021
A. 28/09:44:45Z
B. 24.06 deg N 085.26 deg W
C. 700 MB 3035 m
D. 987 mb
E. 195 deg 08 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. E03/35/10
H. 53 kt
I. 307 deg 16 nm 09:40:49Z
J. 052 deg 52 kt
K. 307 deg 22 nm 09:39:16Z
L. 63 kt
M. 133 deg 14 nm 09:51:04Z
N. 225 deg 66 kt
O. 132 deg 15 nm 09:51:11Z
P. 10 C / 3067 m
Q. 14 C / 3053 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA3 0809A IDA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 66 KT 132 / 15 NM 09:51:11Z

 

Weird eye shape there, elliptical with a 30-210 degree axis, 10 NM by 35 NM. 

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5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:
7 
URNT12 KWBC 281019
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL092021
A. 28/09:44:45Z
B. 24.06 deg N 085.26 deg W
C. 700 MB 3035 m
D. 987 mb
E. 195 deg 08 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. E03/35/10
H. 53 kt
I. 307 deg 16 nm 09:40:49Z
J. 052 deg 52 kt
K. 307 deg 22 nm 09:39:16Z
L. 63 kt
M. 133 deg 14 nm 09:51:04Z
N. 225 deg 66 kt
O. 132 deg 15 nm 09:51:11Z
P. 10 C / 3067 m
Q. 14 C / 3053 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA3 0809A IDA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 66 KT 132 / 15 NM 09:51:11Z

 

Weird eye shape there, elliptical with a 30-210 degree axis, 10 NM by 35 NM. 

That would explain the series of opposing cycling hot towers a little while ago -- probably fired along the major axis.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models have been locked into a south-central/southeast Louisiana swamp coast landfall for a while.

Yeah, I mean it looks on the east envelope. I might be hallucinating. She also looks like ms pacman right now so tracking the eye isn't the easiest.

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DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower 
northward motion on Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move 
over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday.  Ida is 
then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast 
within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland 
over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 
24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous 
major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on 
Sunday.  Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA 
reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. It will tick east a little unfortunately putting NO in the NE quadrant upon LF. Bad news.

Most of the guidance just seems a bit too far away to give New Orleans the worst. The bend left near the coast helps them a good deal. It looks like Morgan City and Lafayette is in the cross-hairs. 

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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