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Major Hurricane Ida


WxWatcher007
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46 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Short-term land disruption is generally more effective in limiting downstream intensification once an inner core has become established. This is due to wind curve flattening or spreading. This larger windfield becomes less concentrated near the core (because of frictional spin-down and interruption of latent heat flux) and also generally becomes pretty inertially stable -- making it more difficult for wind maxima to contract and spin back up. Irma and Isidore are good examples of this. It may not work very well in this case due to the fact that the inner core is still in a formative stage and the TS-force wind field is still pretty small.

Ida is moving at quite the clip to be fair. It probably only spends 3-4 hours over Cuba. Looks to miss Isla de Juventud to the east too.

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1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

It would be, but Katrina was not a worst-case scenario for NOLA, believe it or not. It escaped the worst of the wind damage and a further west track would have funneled surge up the mouth of the Mississippi for a longer duration.

In a way this is even worse. Dauphin Island Alabama is the most storm surge prone location in the country. Even a Cat 1 surges the water on the west end to a level they have to close the only access road for days. A Cat 4 would cut that island in half... Again. 

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The synoptic pattern to me suggests that stronger=west. I think a stronger Ida ends up diabatically building that ridge to the northwest of it. 

The diabatic pump is real, however I think *at the moment* it's more about the differential steering flow (versus a weaker/shallower and more tilted Ida that some ensembles and deterministic runs had forecast). This constant slight deviation to the right of track adds up over time -- at least until the shear vector weakens and shifts direction late tonight and tomorrow morning.

The effect might cancel out -- but we could really do with fewer corrections to the east.

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6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Ida high-end cat 1 and  on the precipice of Cat 2 strength per latest recon..

I saw FL winds of 76 knots, but I'm a little weary of the SFMR data given the closer proximity to Cuba's shoreline. That being said, if it isn't there now - it probably will be sooner than later. It's a hurricane regardless. 

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9 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The diabatic pump is real, however I think *at the moment* it's more about the differential steering flow (versus a weaker/shallower and more tilted Ida that some ensembles and deterministic runs had forecast). This constant slight deviation to the right of track adds up over time -- at least until the shear vector weakens and shifts direction late tonight and tomorrow morning.

The effect might cancel out -- but we could really do with fewer corrections to the east.

Right, I guess I wasn't sure how much the shorter term jogs to the right would affect the final landfall location, given that the forcing latter should be left. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if Cuba will do anything to this storm I think the best we can hope for is a pause in strengthing.

Just enough to ruin the 60mb pressure drop Ida was trying to pull off today and cut it down to a modest 20-30mb pressure drop.   No Cat3 until tomorrow.

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Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

I completely disagree. This storm has had little lead time. Also, due to covid, finding places to evacuate to or convincing people to leave will be that much more challenging than normal. TS force winds sill arrive by Sunday morning, giving the rest of today and tomorrow all they have to evacuate. This is going to be a powerful, scary storm and leaving this one to chance is not wise. Very happy to see the evacuations popping up today. 

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12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

 

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I completely disagree. This storm has had little lead time. Also, due to covid, finding places to evacuate to or convincing people to leave will be that much more challenging than normal. TS force winds sill arrive by Sunday morning, giving the rest of today and tomorrow all they have to evacuate. This is going to be a powerful, scary storm and leaving this one to chance is not wise. Very happy to see the evacuations popping up today. 

We have a banter thread for these insightful discussions :D

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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