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Major Hurricane Ida


WxWatcher007
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Keep in mind with all this concern about New Orleans that several different projects were completed after Katrina. Together they are suppose to mitigate what happened in Katrina. The Lake Borne protect constructed several flood gates to 16 feet above sea level and the Seabrook Floodgate project has been finished. I am not sure any of it has had a real test yet. It doesn't help that the moment a lot of it was finished they discovered it was sinking and flood gates built to 16 feet don't sound like much with a Cat 4 or 5. Either way that city needs to begin evacuations today. Activate the National Bus Contract and get people in low lying areas out of there.

I don't have much faith in any leader there considering they left a dead man visible in a collapsed building for 6 months. They kept hanging tarps to cover him and those kept blowing away leaving the guys legs all exposed again while Segway companies ran tours for those to take pics of him.

 

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As if we needed another level of concern, Ida has continued to lean towards the eastern side of the track envelope. Recon has confirmed this again with their center fixes. These slight eastward adjustments are increasing the risk of New Orleans getting the direct impact of the right front eyewall, and more importantly the mouth of the Mississippi. A strong southerly to southeasterly fetch (potentially from a cat 4+) hurricane would be devastating if the eyewall takes that track. Once again, I am not trying to engage in hyperbole, but this is a growing possibility with a storm of this magnitude and that is track trajectory. Hopefully it corrects westward under the ridge once in the gulf

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As if we needed another level of concern, Ida has continued to lean towards the eastern side of the track envelope. Recon has confirmed this again with their center fixes. These slight eastward adjustments are increasing the risk of New Orleans getting the direct impact of the right front eyewall, and more importantly the mouth of the Mississippi. A strong southerly to southeasterly fetch (potentially from a cat 4+) hurricane would be devastating if the eyewall takes that track. Once again, I am not trying to engage in hyperbole, but this is a growing possibility with a storm of this magnitude and that is track trajectory. Hopefully it corrects westward under the ridge once in the gulf

Yeah we will have to see if that will occur or if it event slips east of NOLA like Katrina did and slams Bay St. Louis.

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Core will only be over Cuba for 6 hours. I don't think Cuba is going to have much impact on intensity at US landfall. For reference, both Charley and Camille went over portions of western Cuba. I think the time over water after Cuba passage is more important. You have to figure 12-18 hours for the storm to stabilize/core to regenerate. That leaves 24-36 for intensification. Not enough time for an ERC. So probably remains a smaller storm size wise.

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3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah we will have to see if that will occur or if it event slips east of NOLA like Katrina did and slams Bay St. Louis.

Stronger earlier plus right of center adjustments are not great. Still have some hope it stays far enough west to spare NOLA. At least in this case there's no trough trying to dig the 'cane out and eroding the ridge as it does so.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wouldn’t a path east of New Orleans be potentially problematic also. Katrina was east of the city and the damage came from Lake Pontchartrain did it not?

There are now flood gates at each of the 3 canal locations from Pontchartrain through the city. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wouldn’t a path east of New Orleans be potentially problematic also. Katrina was east of the city and the damage came from Lake Pontchartrain did it not?

It would be, but Katrina was not a worst-case scenario for NOLA, believe it or not. It escaped the worst of the wind damage and a further west track would have funneled surge up the mouth of the Mississippi for a longer duration.

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Betsy is close to the worst case track, which would be coming from the SE/SSE putting the NW and eastern eyewall over the metro/lake. In such a case, water would be funneled from the Gulf into the lake and then piled into the levees by northerly flow on the lake. The Mississippi would also see a surge.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

FL winds are up about 10 knots from the previous SE-NW pass by recon. Already strengthening pretty rapidly.

Enough interaction with the Isle of Man looks to occur to halt intensification briefly before impacting Cuba. But Ida is clearly strengthening quickly atm.

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Hilly terrain, up to about 1000 ft, should halt intensification somewhat for at least a few hours. But hard to believe it will have much of an impact long term

That’s the same terrain that disrupted gustav. Maybe it’ll put in some work here. 

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7 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Just went back and looked and it appears recon was ascending when the 990mb extrap occured so it's probably not quite that low yet. Still though, a hurricane into Cuba appears likely at this point 

I'm guessing, basing off the recon altitude data, that they got pretty shook by the eye wall. Not too surprising given the intense nature of the convection around the eye.

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5 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

That’s the same terrain that disrupted gustav. Maybe it’ll put in some work here. 

Short-term land disruption is generally more effective in limiting downstream intensification once an inner core has become established. This is due to wind curve flattening or spreading. This larger windfield becomes less concentrated near the core (because of frictional spin-down and interruption of latent heat flux) and also generally becomes pretty inertially stable -- making it more difficult for wind maxima to contract and spin back up. Irma and Isidore are good examples of this. It may not work very well in this case due to the fact that the inner core is still in a formative stage and the TS-force wind field is still pretty small.

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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