Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Major Hurricane Ida


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

Zeta's eye went right over New Orleans last year after making landfall with winds of 115 mph. Seemed like New Orleans was barely affected by Zeta though. Why were the effects minimal in Zeta but expected to be catastrophic with this?
I'd imagine the direction of approach is worse for surge and flooding. But it's still not a scenario in stone. Obviously intensity, size, forward motion / speed, fetch while over the central GOM. We can go on....
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Zeta's eye went right over New Orleans last year after making landfall with winds of 115 mph. Seemed like New Orleans was barely affected by Zeta though. Why were the effects minimal in Zeta but expected to be catastrophic with this?

All the surge with Zeta was over sparsely populated Terrebonne Parish, it moved through quickly with damaging winds on the front eyewall but little on the back side, as it had already begun to open up (halfacane).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Zeta's eye went right over New Orleans last year after making landfall with winds of 115 mph. Seemed like New Orleans was barely affected by Zeta though. Why were the effects minimal in Zeta but expected to be catastrophic with this?

Zetas forward speed lessened the effects. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems like the track has shifted east with every model run. I'm starting to wonder if it might go due north into Florida. Probably not, but kind've looks like that on satellite.  
Anyone here have any theories why the track keeps shifting east as this comes into focus?
PV / upper trough that brought you storms last night is the culprit. 500-300 hPa level weakness in the ridge north of the TC. A more stacked and strong system will feel the poleward mid-to-upper flow versus a weaker system until 500 dm heights rebuild off the SECONUS and diabetic heating from Ida fills/squashes the PV. A gradual bend back NW is probable into landfall as the potential hurricane traverses the central GOM.
c977d4d4681b2c7edd7c0e072a519fd4.jpg
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per ATCF best track, TD9 has now become Ida.

AL, 09, 2021082618, BEST, 0, 177N, 794W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,


An excellent example of why ATCF should not be used over an official advisory. Though Best Track had TD9 as a TS, recon was not convincing enough for the NHC. Therefore, they did not upgrade the depression for the 5PM EDT advisory package.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

An excellent example of why ATCF should not be used over an official advisory. Though Best Track had a TD9 as a TS, recon was not convincing enough for the NHC. Therefore, they did not upgrade the depression for the 5PM EDT advisory package.

The FD did say recon hadn’t been thru the east side. This leaves the door open for a special update if they find what they need, imo.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

PV / upper trough that brought you storms last night is the culprit. 500-300 hPa level weakness in the ridge north of the TC. A more stacked and strong system will feel the poleward mid-to-upper flow versus a weaker system until 500 dm heights rebuild off the SECONUS and diabetic heating from Ida fills/squashes the PV. A gradual bend back NW is probable into landfall as the potential hurricane traverses the central GOM.
c977d4d4681b2c7edd7c0e072a519fd4.jpg

what does diabetic heating mean or did you mispell that word?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the 
depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida.  The maximum 
sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

PV / upper trough that brought you storms last night is the culprit. 500-300 hPa level weakness in the ridge north of the TC. A more stacked and strong system will feel the poleward mid-to-upper flow versus a weaker system until 500 dm heights rebuild off the SECONUS and diabetic heating from Ida fills/squashes the PV. A gradual bend back NW is probable into landfall as the potential hurricane traverses the central GOM.
c977d4d4681b2c7edd7c0e072a519fd4.jpg

Thank you, I sensed there was some complex interaction going on between TD 9 and the disturbance that crossed Florida last night. Both systems flared up simultaneously, and they seemed to be attached from the beginning. 

I think the upper-low feature deepened more than expected, thanks to the plethora of deep convection it was producing, leading to a far weaker steering ridge.

It seems Ida is  coupling with the poleward current on the east side of the upper-low, indeed Ida's outflow is spreading north at incredible speeds, and has crossed the Florida Straits in just a few hours. I can actually see Ida's outflow cirrus from my balcony right now. 

This divergence will help Ida to quickly intensify, and convective development is biased towards northern semicircle too, both of which are factors that will push Ida north and east of track.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Hopefully it gets to a cat 5 right before landfall

yup.. that would be historic.  Andrew was last really good hurricane to make landfall on a major metropolitan area and cause massive wind damage.  I think was Michael was a cat 5 when it made landfall.. but it didnt hit prime real estate so know one really remembers it.  

  • Weenie 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Thank you, I sensed there was some complex interaction going on between TD 9 and the disturbance that crossed Florida last night. Both systems flared up simultaneously, and they seemed to be attached from the beginning. 

I think the upper-low feature deepened more than expected, thanks to the plethora of deep convection it was producing, leading to a far weaker steering ridge.

It seems Ida is  coupling with the poleward current on the east side of the upper-low, indeed Ida's outflow is spreading north at incredible speeds, and has crossed the Florida Straits in just a few hours. I can actually see Ida's outflow cirrus from my balcony right now. 

This divergence will help Ida to quickly intensify, and convective development is biased towards northern semicircle too, both of which are factors that will push Ida north and east of track.

With all due respect.

You're a meteorologist... You should know these things.

Unless getting met degree was on your bucket list of things to do but you have never really practiced that education.

Ya awfully rusty charlie.

 

But no disrespect intended.

 

But agree. Darn good outflow to the north and south of the center.

As long as the LLC stays away from land to minimize friction. This storm could look a lot different in the morning. Especially since the upper levels cool off after today's sun.

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models keep speeding up the landfall time. How strong and organized it is when it enters the gulf will be key to how strong it is at landfall.

If it's a 993mb borderline cat1  entering the gulf it will have enough time to become a major before LA.  If it's still a 1005mb messy TS it will probably won't

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@turtlehurricane

Yea we in Florida always want that close by pass of the biggest storm. We live for that sometimes!

When we posted our predictions I think I said Ida would "the" historic one for this season. But it is earlier than I expected and just don't feel it much. Too fast, still not much to look at, etc. The models show a storm with potential, I see that. Maybe it will ease east and north, or not. I enjoy the anticipation, but not holding my breath for a wild storm-chasing live event.

I do suspect I was wrong about Ida being the historic storm of the season though. (But being wrong is something I am used to!)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Seems like the track has shifted east with every model run. I'm starting to wonder if it might go due north into Florida. Probably not, but kind've looks like that on satellite.  

Anyone here have any theories why the track keeps shifting east as this comes into focus?

Who does the red tag vetting around here? Don't quit your day job..

  • Like 1
  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

I am gonna chase.  Brining my kids with me.. Whats the best hotel to stay at that would offer the safest environment?  We can handle blown out windows.. but I definitely don't want to get caught up in any building collapses.

How old are your kids?

If it becomes a Cat 5 get your kids outa there! You can stay and report, take videos, and photos.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Satellite imagery showing convection blossoming nicely downshear (east side of storm) but still some westerly shear imposing on Ida, with even some pesky dry air lingering to the west associated with the eroding TUTT. DMAX should overcome most of this but I'm interested to see how shear impacts all this overnight as it becomes more southerly.goes16_ir_09L_202108262245.thumb.gif.8a724990cf4ec33894ba135b76857f95.gifgfs_vortex_sounding_09L_2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

@turtlehurricane

Yea we in Florida always want that close by pass of the biggest storm. We live for that sometimes!

When we posted our predictions I think I said Ida would "the" historic one for this season. But it is earlier than I expected and just don't feel it much. Too fast, still not much to look at, etc. The models show a storm with potential, I see that. Maybe it will ease east and north, or not. I enjoy the anticipation, but not holding my breath for a wild storm-chasing live event.

I do suspect I was wrong about Ida being the historic storm of the season though. (But being wrong is something I am used to!)

 

With the center being so far north in the Caribbean and all the convection to the north and east of the center, it may very well brush you in Tampa Bay. GFS shows this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it get even closer. 

Screenshot_20210826-205132_Chrome~2.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...