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September 2021


wdrag
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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I probably should throw in the towel on anything significant Sept 30-Oct 3;  but 12z/25 GEFS still wants to separate the streams with a closed low 'trying' to form near the mid Atlantic coast, whereas the EPS has vigorous closed low up near Maine and no opportunity for significant qpf after Wednesday morning. Strange, that the EPS brings SAM closer than then the GEFS in this pattern.  

I guess I look at it like this: climatologically it rains every 3 days or so (trace included).  I think we're pretty much assured of measurable Tuesday. After that, next measurable??

I'll check back if 12z/25 GEFS looks to be more accurate than the 12z/25 EPS, or Tuesday, whichever comes first. 

I can honestly see it being pretty quiet weather wise over the next couple of weeks outside of a couple of minor events and anything tropical that could impact us. We'll see.

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It looks like NYC may finally drop below 55° next week. HPN could also see the first 40s of the fall. This would be very late for these temperature benchmarks at both stations. 
 

Latest first day below 55° in NYC

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2015 06-04 (2015) 54 10-02 (2015) 48 119
1910 06-08 (1910) 53 10-02 (1910) 54 115
1921 06-05 (1921) 54 10-01 (1921) 52 117
1908 05-16 (1908) 53 09-30 (1908) 52 136
2005 06-02 (2005) 54 09-29 (2005) 54 118
2003 06-17 (2003) 53 09-29 (2003) 53 103
2002 06-08 (2002) 53 09-29 (2002) 54 112
1968 06-21 (1968) 53 09-29 (1968) 53 99
1930 06-01 (1930) 50 09-29 (1930) 53 119
1970 05-30 (1970) 50 09-27 (1970) 54 119
2016 06-09 (2016) 54 09-25 (2016) 54 107


Latest first 40s at HPN

 

First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2018 06-12 (2018) 49 10-12 (2018) 47 121
2017 06-09 (2017) 47 09-29 (2017) 47 111
2002 06-08 (2002) 48 09-29 (2002) 48 112
1970 05-30 (1970) 44 09-29 (1970) 42 121
1968 05-28 (1968) 46 09-29 (1968) 49 123
2005 05-25 (2005) 46 09-28 (2005) 46 125
2015 06-02 (2015) 48 09-27 (2015) 47 116
1980 06-14 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 44 104
2016 05-21 (2016) 48 09-25 (2016) 44 126
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What is going on here on the EURO?         The area that is hanging back from SAM  'hangs on' for at least 72 hours of 40mph gusts{from N} near here, starting at 168hrs.(not shown)     The GFS and CMC have this is in a minor way only.

1633284000-G9PDXC6kGe8.png1633284000-8HTT7Fyk0HE.png

 

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Tomorrow and Monday will be fair and pleasantly warm days. Afterward, a cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region on Tuesday.

The MJO had recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. The guidance has now come into better agreement concerning a cool shot to end the month. Afterward, in the MJO cases, a fairly sharp rebound in temperatures followed. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

2021 remains on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is increasing consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was -15.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.142 today.

On September 23 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.946 (RMM). The September 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.305 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

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The last 5 days of September are averaging 67(60/75), or +2.

Month to date is  71.4[+1.2].        September should end near  70.7[+1.5].

Today:  72-77, w.,nw. wind-gusty, p. sunny.

Reached 77* here yesterday.

Oct. 3-10 looking continuously gusty here.

Bermuda wiped out next Sat. PM?

62*(76%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.      64* at 9am.        67* at Noon.       68* at 1pm.        70* at 2pm.      73* at 4pm.    Reached 74* at 5:30pm.

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13 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I can honestly see it being pretty quiet weather wise over the next couple of weeks outside of a couple of minor events and anything tropical that could impact us. We'll see.

Probably correct. I still think modeling is separating streams. I think  by tomorrow morning we'll know if the dry quiet is correct.  Right now, I'm unconvinced.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 75°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.3°; 15-Year: 73.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.8°; 15-Year: 75.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°

Tomorrow will be a very warm day.

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52 last night after a high of 80 yesterday.  On the way to mid/upper 70s.  Mon (9/27) and Tue (9/28) look like the warmest for potentially (the year) with highs 80/ low 80s in the warmer spots. Not to say it wont warm up which it looks likely by Oct 6, but dont think we exceed Mon/Tue maxes till spring. 

  Front come sthrough Tue later so clouds could spoil the warmest readings on Tuesday.   ECM /  GFS cutt ULL ville 9/29 and on but keep the brunt of the rain north of the area.  Cooler shot by Thu (9/30) - Sun (10/3) as ULL pulls down N/NNW flow.  Once we clear the ULL towards the first full week of Oct, ridging looks to rebuild into the east and warm things up.   GFS would have California style weather (overall) the next 10 days but I suspect we see clouds and rain chances with the ULL and stalled up pattern evolve.

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13 hours ago, lee59 said:

It seems in my area this season, we get very heavy rain over a 24 hour period and then very little or nothing for the next 2-3 weeks.

Its insanity.

Every rain storm does damage to my property.

Limbs down, small mudslides, leaves everywhere. I redid my patio in the spring and its already a mess.

 

 

 

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Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Tuesday will also be warm, but a cold front will push across the region overnight bringing some showers and perhaps thundershowers to parts of the region. Afterward, the coolest air so far this fall will close out the month.

The MJO had recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. The guidance has now come into better agreement concerning a cool shot to end the month. Afterward, in the MJO cases, a fairly sharp rebound in temperatures followed. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

2021 remains on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is increasing consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was -0.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.455 today.

On September 24 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.714 (RMM). The September 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.945 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

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