bluewave Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Think low was 48 Yeah, the low was 48° at HPN. The first 40s and 30s have been getting later faster than the first freeze. My guess is that this is due to the September and October warming faster than November. So the first freeze date is closer to the colder weather arriving in November during recent years. Then as the warming has picked up in December, the first low below 20° since 2010 got pushed back by 12 days compared to the 1952-1980 climate normals period. HPN average first 40s 2010-2020…..9-20……1952-1980…..9-9 ………………………….30s 2010-2020….10-17…….1952-1980…..10-06 ………………………….32 2010-2020….10-30…….1952-1980…..10-26 ………………………….10s 2010-2020 12-17……..1952-1980…..12-05 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the low was 48° at HPN. The first 40s and 30s have been getting later faster than the first freeze. My guess is that this is due to the September and October warming faster than November. So the first freeze date is closer to the colder weather arriving in November during recent years. Then as the warming has picked up in December, the first low below 20° since 2010 got pushed back by 12 days compared to the 1952-1980 climate normals period. HPN average first 40s 2010-2020…..9-20……1952-1980…..9-9 ………………………….30s 2010-2020….10-17…….1952-1980…..10-06 ………………………….32 2010-2020….10-30…….1952-1980…..10-26 ………………………….10s 2010-2020 12-17……..1952-1980…..12-05 That's how you get these powerful 15-20F freezes that kill everything in one swoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said: In Lindenhurst, It seems I’ll finish the month with exactly 5.6” of rain. Low was 53 last night, the coldest of the month so far. We hit 39 for the low here in Albany by comparison Yea Long Island missed out on some of the heavy rain but still got plenty. I had about 8.5 inches in July, 7 inches in August and 7.5 this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: That's how you get these powerful 15-20F freezes that kill everything in one swoop. Yeah, the November 2019 record early hard freeze following the October record warmth was a recent example of this. The record low 20s in November following the record mid 90s in October just flattened the late blooming fall plants. So November has been our month that we can still get record cold. Areas to our north that used to get late September freezes like Albany had them pushed back to mid-Ocrober. Since NYC has had the average first freeze November for a long time, the freeze date change isn’t as dramatic. First freeze dates Albany…1951-1980….9-29…..2010-2020….10-16 NYC…….1951-1980….11-11…..2010-2020….11-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Brookhaven Labs on Long Island already down to 54 degrees, 61 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Tonight will provide a genuine autumn preview. Temperatures will likely fall into the lower 50s in New York City, Newark, and perhaps Philadelphia. Outside the cities, temperatures could fall well into the 40s. Westhampton could see the mercury dip below 40°. Afterward, it will be variably cloudy with the mercury rising into the middle and upper 60s in much of the region. Newark's record-breaking 122-day streak with maximum temperatures of 70° or above will be severely challenged. Most of the modeling shows a high of 68°-70° there. 2021 is virtually certain to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Friday will be another relatively cool day. But warmer temperatures will return and the chance of precipitation will increase as the calendar presses deeper into the first week of October. There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October (a general 2°-4° above normal). Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October. The SOI was +30.49 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.308 today. On September 27 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.346 (RMM). The September 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.087 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 7 hours ago, lee59 said: Brookhaven Labs on Long Island already down to 54 degrees, 61 here. it's going to be in the 30s tomorrow night on Long Island, too bad it's going to be October 1 not September 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will start off with overcast skies in parts of the region. Those clouds will yield to sunshine. Elsewhere, it will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.6°; 15-Year: 71.9° Newark: 30-Year: 72.2°; 15-Year: 73.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.5°; 15-Year: 74.7° Dry but cool weather will continue through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: it's going to be in the 30s tomorrow night on Long Island, too bad it's going to be October 1 not September 30 Yea, projected lows last night were higher than expected thanks to overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 The last day of September is averaging 64degs.(59/69), or -1. Month to date is 70.7[+1.3]. September should end at 70.1[+0.9] 60*(58%RH) here at 6am. 59* at 7am. Still 59* at 9am. 62* at Noon. 65* at 2pm. Reached 67* at 4pm. 62* at 9pm. Today: 65-70, nw. wind, p. cloudy. Coming rain reduced on GFS and T's way up. Week 1 Oct. 68[60/77], +4. EURO still has days of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 The lack of any real cold air for September shows up with monthly minimum temperatures in the top 3 warmest. New records were set at EWR, BDR, and ISP. This reflects how fast the September temperatures have been rising. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 54 1 2 2015 52 0 3 2018 51 0 4 2017 49 0 - 2011 49 0 - 2004 49 0 - 2002 49 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 51 0 2 2021 48 1 - 2008 48 0 - 2002 48 0 - 1999 48 2 - 1968 48 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 55 1 2 2015 54 0 3 2018 53 0 - 2002 53 0 - 1994 53 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1910 57 0 2 2015 56 0 - 1921 56 0 3 2021 54 1 - 2018 54 0 - 2017 54 0 - 2016 54 0 - 2010 54 0 - 2002 54 0 - 1982 54 0 - 1960 54 0 - 1891 54 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 59 0 2 2018 57 0 - 2016 57 0 3 2021 56 1 - 2015 56 0 - 2012 56 0 - 2002 56 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 56 0 2 2021 54 1 - 2018 54 0 - 2017 54 0 - 2002 54 0 - 1994 54 0 - 1968 54 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 52 1 - 2018 52 0 2 2017 50 0 - 2015 50 0 - 2002 50 0 - 1977 50 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 52 here this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Down to 51 last night. Much less clouds than i was expecting. Cooler train 36 more hours before we warm up this weekend. We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85). More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall. Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month. Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the warm spots but chances may be increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 No lows in the 40s this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The lack of any real cold air for September shows up with monthly minimum temperatures in the top 3 warmest. New records were set at EWR, BDR, and ISP. This reflects how fast the September temperatures have been rising. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 54 1 2 2015 52 0 3 2018 51 0 4 2017 49 0 - 2011 49 0 - 2004 49 0 - 2002 49 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 51 0 2 2021 48 1 - 2008 48 0 - 2002 48 0 - 1999 48 2 - 1968 48 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 55 1 2 2015 54 0 3 2018 53 0 - 2002 53 0 - 1994 53 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1910 57 0 2 2015 56 0 - 1921 56 0 3 2021 54 1 - 2018 54 0 - 2017 54 0 - 2016 54 0 - 2010 54 0 - 2002 54 0 - 1982 54 0 - 1960 54 0 - 1891 54 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 59 0 2 2018 57 0 - 2016 57 0 3 2021 56 1 - 2015 56 0 - 2012 56 0 - 2002 56 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 56 0 2 2021 54 1 - 2018 54 0 - 2017 54 0 - 2002 54 0 - 1994 54 0 - 1968 54 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 52 1 - 2018 52 0 2 2017 50 0 - 2015 50 0 - 2002 50 0 - 1977 50 0 Just glad that the yucky 70 dew point crap is gone. I think most would be happy with temps in the 70s during the day with 50s at night for the next 4-5 weeks and most of all low humidity (dew points 50s or lower.) I dont really like cold weather in October or November, I like a slow transition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 So far EWR only up to 69 so the 70(+) streak is in jeopardy. Mostly cloudy now too. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Most of the area easily staying below 70 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: So far EWR only up to 69 so the 70(+) streak is in jeopardy. Mostly cloudy now too. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Made it to 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 The streak goes on... At 4 pm. Newark had a temperature of 70 degrees. The record streak of 70-degree high temperatures is now 123 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 It may never end at Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Made it to 65 here, really feels like fall today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Made it to 65 here, really feels like fall today. Yea, made it to 66 here. Most current temperatures in the area are in the low to mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 When I checked the Newark readings at 4, it showed 70 degrees and the wind NW at 76mph. Now the temperature at Newark is 67 degrees. So I am wondering if the 70 degree reading was incorrect. It certainly seemed like an outlier temperature reading as I checked numerous local stations in the area at 4PM and the highest I could find was Caldwell NJ at 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: It may never end at Newark. It won't if it hit 70F today. Next 10-14 days look very mild. The only way it stays below 70F is if enough clouds/rain keep temperatures down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 If the clouds dissipate tonight, it will be the best chance for scattered frost in some of those northern valley areas, such as in the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 I looked up Newark on Wunderground and it says high temperature 70 but it also says maximum wind speed 76mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 At 2:51 pm, the temperature reached a daily high of 70° at Newark. That extended Newark's record streak with high temperatures of 70° or above to 123 consecutive days. New York City is finishing September with a mean temperature of 70.3° (1.1° above normal). As of 7 pm, that figure is 70.4°, but it is likely to fall to 70.3° as the mercury dips below 58° late this evening. 2021 is the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. What will likely turn out to be a warm October will start off on a cool note. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s during the afternoon. Warmer temperatures will return this weekend. Next week, the chance of precipitation will increase. There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Bismarck could have one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October on record. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October (a general 2°-4° above normal). Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October. The SOI was +18.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.441 today. On September 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.420 (RMM). The September 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.349 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Another top warmest September across the area. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 74.5 0 2 2005 73.5 0 3 2015 73.4 0 4 2021 72.5 0 5 2016 71.8 0 - 1971 71.8 0 6 2010 71.6 0 7 1959 71.5 0 8 2018 71.4 0 9 2011 71.2 0 10 1973 71.0 0 - 1931 71.0 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2005 74.9 0 2 2015 74.1 0 3 2016 73.8 0 4 1961 73.6 0 5 2007 73.0 0 6 2018 72.8 0 7 2021 72.7 0 8 2010 72.5 0 - 1959 72.5 0 9 2019 72.1 0 10 1998 71.6 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 73.0 0 - 1961 73.0 0 2 2005 72.1 0 3 1971 71.8 0 4 1959 71.3 0 5 2016 71.1 0 6 1983 71.0 0 7 2021 70.7 0 - 2018 70.7 0 8 2017 70.6 0 9 2010 70.5 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 70.9 0 2 2005 70.2 0 3 2018 69.8 0 4 2021 69.6 0 - 1980 69.6 0 5 2017 69.0 0 - 2011 69.0 0 6 2016 68.9 0 7 1998 68.6 0 8 2010 68.3 0 9 1983 68.1 0 - 1971 68.1 0 10 2008 67.7 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 71.1 0 2 2016 70.6 0 3 1961 70.5 0 4 2011 70.1 0 5 2021 69.8 0 - 2005 69.8 0 6 2018 69.5 0 7 1959 69.4 0 8 2010 69.3 0 9 2017 69.1 0 10 1971 69.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 3, 2021 Author Share Posted October 3, 2021 Sept worked out warmer and wetter than normal but no real HEAT to speak of. Onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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