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Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021


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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We should have just gone with climo, heaviest rainfall totals for those more than 100 miles west of the eye, progressively lesser as you get closer to the point of landfall and even less further east.

And that NJ somehow will get the heaviest rain amounts. Always works out some way. 

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29 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

Sparta, NJ has been getting deluged now for an hour plus.  I don't have specific totals as I don't have a great gauge here but there are plenty of stations online.

Judging by the radar, we're going to have a issue if this doesn't break up or move on pretty soon.

Here in Veron, NJ, right at Canistear Reservoir,  I do not have an official rain gauge. Just a 5 gallon pail out in the open. It's slightly tapered on the top, so it is not an accurate measurement. I just measured. 3.7" in bucket. So, maybe only 3"?

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Henri is another example of how extreme the Western Atlantic Ridge has become. This is the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Rhode Island after tracking within 200 miles of Bermuda. Absent such a strong WAR, Henri would have went harmlessly out to sea.

Tracks of 350 tropical cyclones passing within 200 miles of Bermuda

7C13538D-44D4-4CD6-9DAC-AE2541482517.thumb.png.cce1676f04f50a232a2b5d04458d8358.png

 

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Henri is another example of how extreme the Western Atlantic Ridge has become. This is the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Rhode Island after tracking within 200 miles of Bermuda. Absent such a strong WAR, Henri would have went harmlessly out to sea.

Tracks of 350 tropical cyclones passing within 200 miles of Bermuda

7C13538D-44D4-4CD6-9DAC-AE2541482517.thumb.png.cce1676f04f50a232a2b5d04458d8358.png

 

So with all do respect, what does that mean? Also, in how many years where those 350 storms?

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34 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Here in Veron, NJ, right at Canistear Reservoir,  I do not have an official rain gauge. Just a 5 gallon pail out in the open. It's slightly tapered on the top, so it is not an accurate measurement. I just measured. 3.7" in bucket. So, maybe only 3"?

As of 7:15PM 3.90” in the Stratus.

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6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

So with all do respect, what does that mean? Also, in how many years where those 350 storms?

Near to record breaking 500mb heights over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic altering  the storm tracks and weather patterns. The tropical cyclone database goes back to 1851. That area around Bermuda has always been busy place for shipping. So it would be a tougher area to miss storms before the satellite era. Plus all landfalling systems near the Northeast have been well documented in the record books. Their tracks were traced back through the Atlantic. 
 

Near to record breaking 500 mb heights in the lead up to Henri

2A7DB7D3-5F1A-44CB-8509-80883858BF31.png.4c32a2007259d6de8e2d936fbbe0d77b.png
58BC248C-CC57-4727-9747-F453239C8CF6.png.40f1a3a13e0e17875d4d651ceec01320.png

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2 hours ago, dWave said:

I tried to get by the Bronx River near Gun Hill, but its pouring so relentlessly I gave up. I remember after Irene it was maybe the highest levels I ever saw, at the current rate this will probably reach or exceed that but I dunno if upstream is getting as much rain as the city to add to the runoff down here. Some of the parks along the parkway got covered in several feet of water back then.

Large parts of the parkway are now flooded.

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24 minutes ago, jdt said:

As of 7:15PM 3.90” in the Stratus.

There are several weather underground stations showing high 3, low 4 inch totals around Lake Mohawk.  One is showing 5.45 but that's an outlier.

I can believe 4 inches has fallen here so far, I'm assuming these totals are since midnight.

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. From 10-11 pm, 1.38” fell. From 11 pm-midnight 1.94” fell.

Then why does their Twitter that I linked above say that Central Park ASOS had 1.94" 10-11 and 1.84" 11-midnight? Are we talking about the same station?

 

"In addition to being the wettest day since 2014... the 1.94" of rain that fell from 10pm to 11pm at Central Park last night was the wettest hour on record for New York City."

 

"The Central Park ASOS broke the daily maximum rainfall record for 8/21 with 4.45 inches of rain! Most of this rain fell over a 2 hour period, with 1.84 inches falling from 11pm to midnight."

 

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4 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

There are several weather underground stations showing high 3, low 4 inch totals around Lake Mohawk.  One is showing 5.45 but that's an outlier.

I can believe 4 inches has fallen here so far, I'm assuming these totals are since midnight.

My running total is for the entire event which begin with some lighter rain yesterday evening. 

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8 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

There are several weather underground stations showing high 3, low 4 inch totals around Lake Mohawk.  One is showing 5.45 but that's an outlier.

I can believe 4 inches has fallen here so far, I'm assuming these totals are since midnight.

Yes...calender day.   Wantage NJ, this part now going up over an inch/hr with real  rate 2.5"/hr and no thunder.  2.96 for the day so far.  

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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Henri is another example of how extreme the Western Atlantic Ridge has become. This is the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Rhode Island after tracking within 200 miles of Bermuda. Absent such a strong WAR, Henri would have went harmlessly out to sea.

Tracks of 350 tropical cyclones passing within 200 miles of Bermuda

7C13538D-44D4-4CD6-9DAC-AE2541482517.thumb.png.cce1676f04f50a232a2b5d04458d8358.png

 

It would've been even more extreme had it made landfall in Long Island but it never got as strong as it was supposed to get otherwise the western solutions would've verified 

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