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Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021


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Last comments til possibly tomorrow morning,  Henri passage e of MTK made it easier to either the storm.  Winds may be a little less than advertised near the center but it isn't done quite yet (backside southwester this afternoon?) . Power outage map reflects recent upticks RI/CT, but good that our subforum doesn't have to deal.  There will always be critics.  They don't get paid to protect. It seems that the GFS/HWRF etc were best on tracking Henri, but horrendous on qpf. 

Rainfall next 18-30 hours hopefully works out less.  Seems to be a slight northward shift in modeled max axis...but still focuses in se NYS NJ/PA border.

Screen Shot 2021-08-22 at 11.38.22 AM.png

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Rain continuing to get heavier here in SW Suffolk as this stalled out band really means business.


991BAC11-E9E6-4AB3-8B0D-1E7EC1C009D1.thumb.jpeg.7256b193bcf23275159335150ab0df89.jpeg

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

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23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm in the screw zone. Some 6-8" maybe 15-20 miles to my south and now the heavy stuff is about 15-20 miles north or so.

Yeah only a little over an inch of rain for the northern part of our county. But at least it's still a good soaking and plenty to give everything a good watering. More to come tonight into tomorrow too, as some more bands should swing from northwest to southeast.

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah only a little over an inch of rain for the northern part of our county. But at least it's still a good soaking and plenty to give everything a good watering. More to come tonight into tomorrow too, as some more bands should swing from northwest to southeast.

That is actually incorrect. I am in the NE part of the county and I have over 2.5" of rain as a storm total so far.

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12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

where this made landfall didn't even matter because it's a mid grade TS at best, it's where all the rain is falling that really matters.  From NJ over to our region has been where this storm has really made an impact.

 

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

Sandy was a HUGE storm with a huge wind field, this is a relatively tiny storm with a small wind field, not surprised the waves are much smaller

that stationary rain band was what I was worried about. LBI looks like it’s getting hammered

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

I never understood why building codes in Long Beach permitted slope down driveways and basements on a barrier island.

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

where this made landfall didn't even matter because it's a mid grade TS at best, it's where all the rain is falling that really matters.  From NJ over to our region has been where this storm has really made an impact.

 

There might be part of Narragansett or Buzzards Bay that had a nasty surge impact but I agree. Highest wind so far seems to be 66mph at Block Island and Isaias at FRG had 78mph. I’m sure plenty of customers there will lose power and the wet ground doesn’t help for tree damage but we/they lucked out that the eye didn’t clear out and it didn’t ramp up to 110mph when it had a chance. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

Sandy was a HUGE storm with a huge wind field, this is a relatively tiny storm with a small wind field, not surprised the waves are much smaller

that stationary rain band was what I was worried about. LBI looks like it’s getting hammered

The way we measure storms has to change.  It's not just about wind speed it's also about size.  That's what truly determines how strong and devastating a storm can be- its total energy.  Doing that shows that Sandy was the strongest storm to ever hit our region.

 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There might be part of Narragansett or Buzzards Bay that had a nasty surge impact but I agree. Highest wind so far seems to be 66mph at Block Island and Isaias at FRG had 78mph. I’m sure plenty of customers there will lose power and the wet ground doesn’t help for tree damage but we/they lucked out that the eye didn’t clear out and it didn’t ramp up to 110mph when it had a chance. 

I think all the power outages in Rhode Island might be the worst impact there.  I love big storms and all but draw the line at power outages.  It's not fun to lose access to civilization and technology for multiple days.  And even moreso with what looks like a surge of heat coming for us.....I saw even the south shore could hit 90 on Tuesday, this isn't going to be fun and even less so without power.

 

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21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

That is actually incorrect. I am in the NE part of the county and I have over 2.5" of rain as a storm total so far.

I should have said for *most* of northern Middlesex county. Yeah, I can see the higher radar estimates for the extreme northeast part of the county. But the majority of northern Middlesex county is in the 1.00" to 1.50" range. I have only about 1.30" here. A huge difference from the huge totals down in the central and southern parts of the county.

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The way we measure storms has to change.  It's not just about wind speed it's also about size.  That's what truly determines how strong and devastating a storm can be- its total energy.  Doing that shows that Sandy was the strongest storm to ever hit our region.

 

In the wise words of my girlfriend, “size isn’t everything”

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