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Tropical Storm Henri


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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. 

However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it -

What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste.  The GEFs don't look that way?? 

Maybe because the EPS has better verification skills than GEFS?

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Don’t remember if this was posted but still a general consensus for west. 
 

18FB596D-8F01-4580-A9C2-416ADE7D46DD.png

That doesn't look right - only because the UKMET and HWRF aren't showing tracks that far west.  UKMET was way east of that last night... unless I'm misunderstanding "UKX2" and "HWF2" abbreviations...

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. 

However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it -

What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste.  The GEFs don't look that way??

It's literally what pays their bills. I will never understand this

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

FV3 went from NYC on 0z to New London on the 12z.  But ya that above track would not be great.

Not sure convective allowing models are good for TCs. The same models in 2015 that PF used to bring snow as he rocked back and forth violently with Heady Topper in hand. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. 

However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it -

What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste.  The GEFs don't look that way??

Got me too with the graphics. I was just looking back on the east trend that started around 18z and tried to figure out why the NHC moved it west and have not adjusted east. My more emotionally regulated thought was in uncertainty, if it is close to such a large population center, sit on it and get everyone prepared until more confidence in the alternative to avoid the mental whiplash/windshield wiper effect.  

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure convective allowing models are good for TCs. The same models in 2015 that PF used to bring snow as he rocked back and forth violently with Heady Topper in hand. 

It also looks like that as soon as the convective models see weaker system development they kick it a little farther east...

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They expanded east probably to acknowledge trends but didn’t move track much.

 

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I guess they have the benefit of waiting until later to see more guidance.

 

Good call IMO. You can’t waffle back and forth with every model suite. Sure there are trends, but there’s also model noise too. We may see another adjustment through today. Best to maintain continuity and not make drastic shift changes every few hours. 

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24 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Maybe because the EPS has better verification skills than GEFS?

Uh... if so, I'd like to see their database because the Euro "genome" sucks major donkey balls with tropical genesis/physics, always late to the party, and then that of course is observable out here as user community, when it subsequently can't really "see" it in future charts as a result of that -

Bottom line, existentially the op and mean are not really 'better' in the tropics - but don't quote me :)   ... The EPS is superior to the GFS above tropical phenomenon at most scales.  The operational has it's own idiosyncrasies, particularly beyond D4.5 ... by in the early mid range, in my experience it is more reliable than the GFS. 

But I would consider the consensus of all products not including the Euro, before the Euro/EPS, when it comes to tropical handling. 

You know, ...as an afterthought, it may be a 'morphology of usefulness' - now that Henri is entangled in the larger synoptic conductors, suddenly the EPS "gets" to be more right LOL

 

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
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