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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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Very interesting VDM 

Maybe an eye trying to form deeper in the convection per recon. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 3:28Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Name: Henri
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 2:59:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 32.04N 73.60W
B. Center Fix Location: 248 statute miles (400 km) to the SSE (153°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,417m (4,649ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 12kts (From the E at 14mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:49:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 52kts (From the SSE at 59.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:47:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24kts (27.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 3:19:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 317° at 37kts (From the NW at 42.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 3:13:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 1:32:00Z


Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

SECONDARY EYE-LIKE FEATURE VISIBLE ON RADAR 48NM SE OF FL FIX
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Well, we are going against Gov. Baker's wishes and heading to Cotuit Saturday morning.

The house we're renting is on the south side of Shoestring Bay about a mile from Loop Beach. It's at about 25' asl, so I'm not worried about surge, just the gusty winds taking out power.

Hopefully this doesn't end up being a mistake, but it sure will be an adventure...

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27 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

ALSO - Grace being Forecasted as a Cat 1 a day ago for landfall.  OF COURSE you knew it would be a Cat 2 or 3.  Happens EVERY TIME.  Michael being a Cat 5 at landfall being the Most Dangerous example.  But they always underdo it.  

I think things overcorrected too far to the left...its not hitting NYC.

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36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Is it me or did the NHC nudge west with track with 11 PM update? Also increased surge in LIS to 3-5 feet along CT shore :yikes: 

Yep, another 30 miles west, moving from about Southampton to Sayville since 5 pm.  Was at the CT/RI border at 11 am and was at Newport at 5 am, so quite a change in 18 hours.  Only 55 miles from Manhattan, so 2 more nudges west.  If you had asked me yesterday if I thought NYC was really at risk I would've said it was theoretically possible, but not happening.  Hmmm...

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Very interesting VDM 

Maybe an eye trying to form deeper in the convection per recon. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 3:28Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Name: Henri
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 2:59:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 32.04N 73.60W
B. Center Fix Location: 248 statute miles (400 km) to the SSE (153°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,417m (4,649ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 12kts (From the E at 14mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:49:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 52kts (From the SSE at 59.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:47:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24kts (27.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 3:19:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 317° at 37kts (From the NW at 42.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 3:13:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 1:32:00Z


Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

SECONDARY EYE-LIKE FEATURE VISIBLE ON RADAR 48NM SE OF FL FIX

Was waiting for a plane  to actually fly further SE and check out that area , kept checking recon Obs posted on another site

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Didn’t want to say it myself, but ya pretty much this.

But the caveat to that idea is that they just nudged it west 45 minutes ago…??? So they must have a good reason for doing this basically just now.    However, I don’t think it hits NYC directly either.  But who knows? 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

But the caveat to that idea is that they just nudged it west 45 minutes ago…??? So they must have a good reason for doing this basically just now.    However, I don’t think it hits NYC directly either.  But who knows? 

Not that I’m saying the 0z changes everything. 6z could go back west, but I imagine they prepared the forecast package prior to the latest runs. 

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11 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Not that I’m saying the 0z changes everything. 6z could go back west, but I imagine they prepared the forecast package prior to the latest runs. 

Let's look at facts in play:

- We're now within 48 hours of landfall, so modeling should be improving in general.
- That cut-off low west of Henri is now forming and no longer "theoretical" and is probably now better sampled from observation data.
- We have multiple recon flights into Henri ingesting data into the models.

The only thing probably not sampled as well is the ridge/blocking to the east of Henri. While nothing is ever certain, I think it's fair to say that @40/70 Benchmark is correct in the assumption that the west trend is ending and maybe overdone by some of the models and the correction is underway.  Central to eastern CT is probably where landfall will occur, maybe a chance it gets as far as Westerly or Charlestown RI.  While we need to see the Euro to be sure, probably just some "wobbles" or "blips" going forward on the major models and you'll probably see the crap models that are taking it into NJ and NYC correct farther east.

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Just now, bristolri_wx said:

Let's look at facts in play:

- We're now within 48 hours of landfall, so modeling should be improving in general.
- That cut-off low is now forming and no longer "theoretical" and is probably now better sampled from observation data.
- We have multiple recon flights into Henri ingesting data into the models.

The only thing probably not sampled as well is the ridge/blocking to the east of Henri. While nothing is ever certain, I think it's fair to say that @40/70 Benchmark is correct in the assumption that the west trend is ending and maybe overdone by some of the models and the correction is underway.  Central to eastern CT is probably where landfall will occur, maybe a chance it gets as far as Westerly or Charlestown RI.  While we need to see the Euro to be sure, probably just some "wobbles" or "blips" going forward on the major models and you'll probably see the crap models that are taking it into NJ and NYC correct farther east.

Yes agreed. Though where/if it takes a last second turn left before landfall is gonna make quite the difference for some people.  That will be a nowcast situation for sure. 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But the caveat to that idea is that they just nudged it west 45 minutes ago…??? So they must have a good reason for doing this basically just now.    However, I don’t think it hits NYC directly either.  But who knows? 

They did in response to the trends of this past day.

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Lots of noise, but some more ensemble data…

21z SREF (latest) mean track is into central/eastern Long Island, but a few ARW members are clustered near RI/SE MA. The NMM members (blue) are more amped, as usual, resulting in more of a westward deviation. 
59EA2DA0-670D-4949-9716-C8EEEDC80F8A.jpeg.7ca421c66f2c0ed7f94a92a9019a9969.jpeg

Meanwhile, 00z HREF mean track is more in line with the westward track:

98D716A3-ACA1-4ED8-8518-B732C3987386.jpeg.915f724fc05da31704f04b3c2c9334b5.jpeg

Not sure how useful the NSSL WRF is for a tropical system, but it is closer to the overall model consensus. It shows a landfall near Southampton.

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
  • dendrite unpinned this topic

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