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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

so.....when folks are talking about big rains west of the center.....how far west are we talking? 

QPF queens unites.

I’d say anyone within about 100 miles of the center on the western side will have to watch out for huge rains. 

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28 minutes ago, user13 said:

It still has 2 days over really warm water

Screenshot_20210819-215443_Firefox.jpg

Sea surface temp for a relatively slowly moving tropical system can really unravel them fast. Inversions happen and winds become lofted. Inner nest of HWRF shows this well with SST underlayment first set of model depictions. Look at what occurs as Henri slowly loses the gulf stream. Also note the upwelling ahead of the system.  The warm water in New England waters is shallow and upwelling occurs quickly with strong NE, E winds.

hwrf_nest_sst_zoom_60.png

hwrf_nest_sst_zoom_69.png

hwrf_nest_sst_zoom_78.png

hwrf_nest_uv10m_zoom_63.png

hwrf_nest_uv10m_zoom_72.png

hwrf_nest_uv10m_zoom_75.png

hwrf_nest_uv10m_zoom_78.png

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I’ll tell ya …

should this meaningfully impact the region … it’ll be the only one that ever did so like this. 

you’ll have the standard paradigm where 90 % fit in … a smattering of outliers, than this one out there all alone. I really don’t think this is ever happened in totality - not synoptically in how those things interact with each other and causes things to happen - none of it

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ll tell ya …

should this meaningfully impact the region … it’ll be the only one that ever did so like this. 

you’ll have the standard paradigm where 90 % fit in … a smattering of outliers, than this one out there all alone. I really don’t think this is ever happened in totality - not synoptically in how those things interact with each other and causes things to happen - none of it

The hook West then scoot East?  It's definitely an odd evolution and I think we end up with a slightly more suppressed and East solution in the end.

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I like to hold the 3k NAM as the theoretical maximum of a current system. Plenty of systems have verified with the NAM before, but usually when they are in ideal conditions, or for whatever reason seem to "pull it off" given the current environment and overperform.

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
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