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August 9-12, 2021 Severe Threats


Chicago Storm
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Velo is collapsing right before getting to the LOT radar site, so those 70-110mph wind gusts are just off the surface...barely.

Surface stable layer must still be in place. Needed this activity to roll through a bit later, say around noon, to have had better transport to the surface.

Additionally, looks like the main storm collapsed right as it was entering the metro. So that’s another negative.


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Impressive rear inflow jet and cold pool - ARR dewpoint down to 62F with 40KT winds continuing well behind the outflow. SPC may  need to adjust the ENH to southern MI and another farther W into NE IA. 12Z guidance has the cold pool but they all handle it differently. Some show rapid recovery like the HRDPS, others show the recovery around the bubble high taking longer, which may lower the severe risk in some areas of IL/IN if true.

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9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Impressive rear inflow jet and cold pool - ARR dewpoint down to 62F with 40KT winds continuing well behind the outflow. SPC may  need to adjust the ENH to southern MI and another farther W into NE IA. 12Z guidance has the cold pool but they all handle it differently. Some show rapid recovery like the HRDPS, others show the recovery around the bubble high taking longer, which may lower the severe risk in some areas of IL/IN if true.

Mcs season is nightmare trying to predict. 

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Eastern Iowa clearing, except for what appears to be another storm blowing up in the far SE corner. Look like some sort of boundary flying northward on a collision course with the NE-SW oriented one (the front?) in west-central WI/SE MN.

That would be the outflow and modified air from the MCS down south.


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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


That would be the outflow and modified air from the MCS down south.


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I figured as much, the question is what will that boundary do when it hits the front and will that airmass be able to recover? Sometimes these organized cold pools can screw things up even with clearing (case in point 6/22/15 which was supposed to be a WI event from Day 3 but ended up in IL as far as :twister:).

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5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

cell approaching 90 in wi looks solid

that one is so close. once it moves right and interacts with the boundary in the next hour, look out. Any of these tail-end charlies have the best chance of remaining more discrete and interacting with the outflow from this morning. 

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  • Hoosier changed the title to August 9-12, 2021 Severe Threats

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