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Tropical Storm Fred


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Fred is in a very difficult position for forecast intensity. The upper level low/trough over the eastern GOM could make its life horrible or could act as a prime ventilation feature depending on how fast it retrogrades in a westerly vector. Fred could still out perform model guidance. It could also remain weak. If this were to end up a hurricane, I imagine it would still be a surprise, but I honestly have no bearing on what it will or will not do at this point.

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39 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Wait what?  At 5pm the NHC forecasted Fred to be at 40 mph near South Florida with the bulk of the storm being on the west side of the state.  Why would a hurricane watch be coming at 11pm for anywhere, let alone Broward County?  

When a red tagger on this board says they have a strong feeling Miami will see a hurricane that holds more weight than a non red tagger bringing up an NHC forecast that is 4.5 hours old. 

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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Fred is in a very difficult position for forecast intensity. The upper level low/trough over the eastern GOM could make its life horrible or could act as a prime ventilation feature depending on how fast it retrogrades in a westerly vector. Fred could still out perform model guidance. It could also remain weak. If this were to end up a hurricane, I imagine it would still be a surprise, but I honestly have no bearing on what it will or will not do at this point.
 

I think topping out at 75-80 mph in the Gulf is in the reasonable (but outlier) range of possibilities but to me it seems most likely it’s 60-65 mph there. You’re right though that it’s in a tricky spot.

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13 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

When a red tagger on this board says they have a strong feeling Miami will see a hurricane that holds more weight than a non red tagger bringing up an NHC forecast that is 4.5 hours old. 

Yeah science and data based forecasting by top expert professionals is totally overrated.

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1 hour ago, SandySurvivor said:

When a red tagger on this board says they have a strong feeling Miami will see a hurricane that holds more weight than a non red tagger bringing up an NHC forecast that is 4.5 hours old. 

Well the 11pm advisory just came out... no hurricane watch, no additional tropical watches, storm still expected to pass south Florida as the weakest tropical storm categorized. But yeah, keep going with the red tagger.

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6 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Fred definitely being upgraded to TS at 11 pm, 40 mph SFMR on latest pass

Fred was not upgraded to a TS at 11pm. NHC now expecting it to regain TS status during Friday.  Recon says that the mid level center is still 40 miles east of the LLC.  This means reintensification will be slow to occur at best.

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Tropical Storm Warning up for the Keys and Florida Bay at 5 am.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 130843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay has
been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Bonita
Beach to Englewood, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred.  Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday.  On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and 
Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
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So at 5 am Fred looks a lot better than this time yesterday, but not as good as when I went to bed last night. Still looks like a Tropical Storm, at least, will be in my backyard in two days so starting to prepare. If it stays on track tomorrow is going to be crazy at every store around Tampa Bay.

 

image.png

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We had some wicked storms last night around 2-4 am. I was only awake a minute and remember tremendous rain and wind. 

Morning visible shows circulation making landfall on northern coast of Cuba, devoid of all convection. Shear was just too strong after all. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-01-12-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Still will be some really interesting weather according to HWRF, it shows Fred basically reforming over South Florida, with rain and convection beginning to inundate SE FL late tonight and increasing through Saturday, with center re-formation near Naples.

Flood watch is in effect cause of this, 4-7 inches of rain expected! And we already got a widespread 1-2 inches last night according to rain gauges. 

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Circulation center is going fully inland over Cuba. The associated wave axis, north and east of the center, is far more impressive and has lots of convection. I guess even if it totally dies over Cuba that wave will still hit South Florida and bring the floods. 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Really struggling to see Fred as a cyclone this morning. Whatever remnant circulation seems to be strung out and devoid of convection. 

It’s barely hanging on as a TC, but I guess that opens the door for a possible reformation nearer the convection south of Cuba. Doesn’t really change the impacts for S FL though.

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The center of circulation is literally dissolving into a Seabreeze front over Cuba. That's a new and unique way for a tropical cyclone to die. 

It could reform of course near South Florida, like models are hinting, but it really wouldn't be the same storm anymore. 

Still very interesting weather coming, that wave is looking very juicy, and it'll crash into the upper low and create tropical storm conditions here even if there is no defined circulation. 

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5 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Weird stuff going on with Fred this morning. Is it possible a new center could form south of Cuba? That would throw off all the models...

The mangled remains of the LLC should head almost due West per CIMMS shallow steering, or it could cross Cuba and come back into the Caribbean South of Havana.  If there is anything left, maybe not.  CIMSS analsyis vorticity is badly tilted, currently further East over Cuba, but they might also drift mostly West and get back into the Caribbean.  My gut, Fred is dead, but I see possibilities for it to develop South of Cuba, and therefore possible shift everything about 5 degrees further West, and there is a city near 30N and 90W, and it comes from the Caribbean it'd have time over water.

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25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

New Achievement Unlocked : Seabreezed away

Sort of OT, Houston, last 2 afternoons sea breeze overperformed, yesterday, a tropical funnel touched down and knocked down 5 power poles NW suburbs (Cy-Fair area).  Lots of pictures. 

 

On topic: LLC, GFS kills it. it never does get back to water, new low level center forms NE, model probably correct.  But if the models were always correct, it'd get boring.

 

 PTC7 looks like a rinse and repeat of Fred.

 

  https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/08/12/photos-funnel-clouds-spotted-in-houston-area/

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Was just looking at the 11:00 discussion. I bolded what I found interesting especially as it has been looking so bad.

 

326 
WTNT41 KNHC 131451
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Fred remains disorganized this morning...

Fred is continuing to experience about 20 kt of westerly or 
southwesterly vertical wind shear, and these conditions should 
continue for at least another 24 hours.  Between that and land 
interaction, the intensity forecast calls for only modest 
strengthening during this time.  After that, there is still 
relatively poor agreement on how much shear Fred will experience as 
it crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the ECMWF and the UKMET 
forecasting less shear than the GFS and CMC global models.  Due to 
the uncertainty, the intensity forecast will keep the previous peak 
intensity of 45 kt.  However, the intensity guidance during this 
period has trended a little higher, and the 45 kt peak is now a 
little below the upper edge of the guidance. 

It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected
to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains,
strongest winds, and a chance of tornadoes will be.
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21 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Was just looking at the 11:00 discussion. I bolded what I found interesting especially as it has been looking so bad.


Keep in mind that TC intensity is not static. This could lose its LLC and become an open wave, but a robust wave with strong mid level spin could still regenerate in a more favorable environment. It’s not surprising Fred looks terrible now, but the eastern Gulf looks more conducive for organization and/or intensification with a reduced shear environment. 

 

1 hour ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

Still a learner, but what's going on with the convection exploding just north of the Lesser Antilies?  Soon to be Invest 96?

Hadn’t looked until now but I don’t think anything comes of that. Too much wind shear to the north and sometimes convection blows up and collapses after a few hours.

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