RT1980 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Prospero said: Central West coast of Florida could use a good solid rain event and even some moderate TS winds to blow out a few cobwebs and stir up the ocean a bit to help get rid of the red tide. Time to watch and pay attention for us. What we don't need is a Hurricane on any level... 12z were the last I had time to view and some were 30+ hours up the coast. I know to take with a grain of salt almost a week out but that would be a lot of rain accumulation. I hope we can get an inch or so here in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Last year most storms managed to skirt the islands or took fortuitous tracks to minimize land impact Wasn’t it Isaias that split the Mona pass last year and became a hurricane while doing it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wasn’t it Isaias that split the Mona pass last year and became a hurricane while doing it? Isaias actually went right over Hispaniola and came off an intensified to a hurricane. Laura also survived a quick trip over Hispaniola. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedbackWx Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 about -80C spike cloud top ::: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 35 minutes ago, Prospero said: I remember well. Good thing they typically didn't develop perfect eyes and reach what some of us expected on those paths. There were some good conditions at times. Seemed like last year was the year of the ragged eye...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Seemed like last year was the year of the ragged eye...lol This year takes the cake on that one, even ragged presentation. But 2019 had its share too. "I think I see an eye" has been almost a joke around here for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 Caveats galore for the HWRF when there isn't a well-defined center. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Everything, as mentioned in the disco, depends on how much land interaction. SHIPS GFS input is 20 knots Westerly shear, although NHC disco mentioned Euro not as hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Everything, as mentioned in the disco, depends on how much land interaction. SHIPS GFS input is 20 knots Westerly shear, although NHC disco mentioned Euro not as hostile. A lot of the models are showing an upper level low west of Tampa that will definitely impact shear over Fred if the upper air Los is still there that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 29 minutes ago, FeedbackWx said: Unless the hot air parcel energy is higher and overpass the wind shear 30-31C could do this : HWRF could be onto something or could be not Your map there is from February 12th 2021 if that were the pattern now East Coast on Alert for Fred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Unless the hot air parcel energy is higher and overpass the wind shear 30-31C could do this : HWRF could be onto something or could be not This might actually help condense more tropical moisture and leave it to explode into a CAT1 right over the nearby warm ocean water. So this is what many meteorologists are concerned about. Not particularly with PTC6 but overall climate. You are not fooling anyone. Stop creating accounts just to derail threads. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 23 minutes ago, FeedbackWx said: This might actually help condense more tropical moisture and leave it to explode into a CAT1 right over the nearby warm ocean water. So this is what many meteorologists are concerned about. Not particularly with PTC6 but overall climate. Wait I know this is most likely from someone who gets more than a little more excited than normal but can't storms sometimes have convective bursts when passing over mountains even though they destroy the storms circulation? So for weaker storms could this happen or is there no way this happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Trolls......sigh 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Convection is looking pretty bad, nearly the entire southern half of the storm is exposed. Wonder if it can overcome this before hitting land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Wait I know this is most likely from someone who gets more than a little more excited than normal but can't storms sometimes have convective bursts when passing over mountains even though they destroy the storms circulation? So for weaker storms could this happen or is there no way this happens?You can have orographic uplift to assist in condensing water vapor. So yes, it can assist in cell development and even convection within the cyclone. However, high mountainous terrain will impede airflow circulating the core low level vortex at sea level. Too much interaction and the tropical cyclone can get disrupted and fall apart. Sometimes the mid level vortex will be intense enough to help regenerate the surface vortex and sometimes the TC never recovers.It is speculation whether weaker systems handle a large mountainous island such as Hispaniola better than intense systems. There are enough examples of both hurricanes and tropical storms getting ripped to shreds. Likewise there are examples of each surviving and going on to reintensify. Perhaps it is a combination of both mountainous interaction and the present state of vertical wind shear + stable airmass near the core circulation. At any rate, most tropical cyclones do not fare well while over Hispaniola, regardless of their eventual outcome.All this being said, there may be some connection to tropical cyclone genesis and the forcing of surface low development on the Lee side of island mountainous terrain. Perhaps some subtle assistance as developing systems pass through the Lesser Antilles. Further research may be needed there. But this is more for the formation/ developmental phase of TCG, not a well-developed cyclone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Here's an 11:30pm video update on PTC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 Surprised nobody posted the GFS. It might be a blip, but it really intensifies the system in the Gulf. Looks like a hurricane landfall in the Big Bend area verbatim. Looks like the potential shear vector is further west in the Gulf and that’s enough for this to quickly organize. Just one run, but interesting.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Surprised nobody posted the GFS. It might be a blip, but it really intensifies the system in the Gulf. Looks like a hurricane landfall in the Big Bend area verbatim. Looks like the potential shear vector is further west in the Gulf and that’s enough for this to quickly organize. Just one run, but interesting.. Yeah. 983 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 63.1W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 63.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 HWRF coming in hot 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 Recon en route now to see if this has actually become a tropical cyclone. Still looks like it's trying to get its act together, but certainly wouldn't be surprised if they found a closed circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 39 minutes ago, cptcatz said: HWRF coming in hot This model is always too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Might be overanalyzing but seeing some new towers in the forward and almost underside of the storm. Maybe this might be hinting at the storm getting its act together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 That HWRF puts a 973 mb hurricane over Biscayne Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 59 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: That color scale... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Looks like some tropical storm force winds and a closed LLC. Not the best defined and I'd like to see lower pressures, but I'd go ahead and give it a name. (and I'm conservative when it comes to naming) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Looks like some tropical storm force winds and a closed LLC. Not the best defined and I'd like to see lower pressures, but I'd go ahead and give it a name. (and I'm conservative when it comes to naming) Definitely ill defined and broad, but I agree, probably worth a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 JB mentions Katrina!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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