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August 2021 Discussion/Obs


George BM
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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Horrific. Can keeps getting kicked on any relief :(

Euro and CMC are a bit better as we get backdoored a bit next weekend before the real front comes through around D9-10. 
 

Still though, rough heatwave to end summer. Really ready for windows open kind of weather.

It's kind of sad that we could get a day or two relief even during peak heat back in July - but here we are in August with just endless soup air. 

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Quick downpour- picked up 0.24". More behind it though. I can hear the thunder.

I was really enjoying the light to moderate rain every few days and nothing excessive over the last month. That ended Friday with 4". Tropical jungle now with skeeters and no air movement. Disgusting.

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Increasing signal in the guidance this morning for widespread showers and storms this afternoon for those east of the Potomac, especially for northern/northeast MD.     Models have had limited handle on the precip so far (to be kind), so I'm not totally sure how much I buy it, although radar seems to suggest that this scenario is plausible.

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

Increasing signal in the guidance this morning for widespread showers and storms this afternoon for those east of the Potomac, especially for northern/northeast MD.     Models have had limited handle on the precip so far (to be kind), so I'm not totally sure how much I buy it, although radar seems to suggest that this scenario is plausible.

Been wet all morning up here, another heavy batch about to rotate through out of PA

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1 hour ago, Interstate said:

I haven’t been around for awhile. What happened to LWX radar?  It has been down for awhile. 

You must be referring to the change in graphics. It’s awful now, and the change made me buy the RadarScope app. If you want to go free, I think this site is good.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-0-6

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55 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You must be referring to the change in graphics. It’s awful now, and the change made me buy the RadarScope app. If you want to go free, I think this site is good.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-0-6

Been using this ever since the NWS decided to make theirs shiit.

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Latest guidance suggests we may get a break from the workweek heat by the weekend via a back door front sinking south from NE. It looks like the front will stall somewhere over the region so it will probably be on the cloudy/wet side and still humid, at least for Saturday. GFS suggesting Sunday might be a decent day with the High over the Northeast pressing southward. Has temps in the low 80s and dews in the low 60s, and pretty much precip free.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Latest guidance suggests we may get a break from the workweek heat by the weekend via a back door front sinking south from NE. It looks like the front will stall somewhere over the region so it will probably be on the cloudy/wet side and still humid, at least for Saturday. GFS suggesting Sunday might be a decent day with the High over the Northeast pressing southward. Has temps in the low 80s and dews in the low 60s, and pretty much precip free.

If one is to believe the gfs, if we survive the next ten, things might be changing very nicely.

But we all know how 10 day forecasts go.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest guidance suggests we may get a break from the workweek heat by the weekend via a back door front sinking south from NE. It looks like the front will stall somewhere over the region so it will probably be on the cloudy/wet side and still humid, at least for Saturday. GFS suggesting Sunday might be a decent day with the High over the Northeast pressing southward. Has temps in the low 80s and dews in the low 60s, and pretty much precip free.

Any thoughts on September ?

With a robost WAR reinforced with warm Atlantic SSTs it appears the usual heat/warmth of summer extends  well into the Fall. 

Here is the recently issued Accu-weather Canadian Fall forecast which indicates warmer than normal over wide areas. 

 

 

2021-Canada-Fall-Temps.jpg?w=632

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9 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest guidance suggests we may get a break from the workweek heat by the weekend via a back door front sinking south from NE. It looks like the front will stall somewhere over the region so it will probably be on the cloudy/wet side and still humid, at least for Saturday. GFS suggesting Sunday might be a decent day with the High over the Northeast pressing southward. Has temps in the low 80s and dews in the low 60s, and pretty much precip free.

12z runs of the Euro, GFS, and GGEM all have the back door scenario to one level or another. Differences are in how far the front progresses. We may just be a bit cooler over the weekend because the front is nearby and brings in cloud cover. All 3 plus GEFS and GEPS bring in the real cold front sometime Tuesday next week that cools us down to at least seasonable temps and probably more like low 80s. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

12z runs of the Euro, GFS, and GGEM all have the back door scenario to one level or another. Differences are in how far the front progresses. We may just be a bit cooler over the weekend because the front is nearby and brings in cloud cover. All 3 plus GEFS and GEPS bring in the real cold front sometime Tuesday next week that cools us down to at least seasonable temps and probably more like low 80s. 

Yeah looks like it will cut off the run of 90+ degree days, but not likely going to usher in a super refreshing airmass. Could end up being partly to mostly sunny though depending on where the front ends up stalling. Probably will see it get hotter again for a day or 2 early next week ahead of the more legit front.

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