SVR FF potential 2PM-midnight Thursday July 29: especially southern part of the NYC subforum along and s of I80 PA-NJ & LI

[wdrag]

I've added the Wednesday afternoon update from SPC.  My focus is basically along the warm front-triple point wherever that traverses.  CAPE and wind field/shear is good enough for iso  SVR up to I84 late Thu afternoon-evening but I'm thinking more favorable zone is near and south of I78 in NJ-PA. Nevertheless, started a thread due to SPC outlooks, some of modeling dumping 1.5-2" of rain in 6 hours especially in se NYS/n NJ and ne PA.  I won't be able to comment much of this thread period so just stay with it patiently and keep up to date on SPC outlooks, NWS Watch/warning/stmts and of course the radar with your observed trends.   

Never know, there might be a later trend further North into NYS/CT.  12z/28 EC wind algorithm pegs s CT/LI with 40-50kt. 

[Rtd208]

@wdrag

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[thunderbolt]

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

@wdrag

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

GeezzzI haven’t seen a hatch Like that in quite some time

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

@wdrag

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

Uh oh. I would hate to have to say congrats south Jersey again. Rooting for getting the wettest July on record for NYC. Let’s go!

[crossbowftw3]

Clouds should keep severe threat relatively in check north of NYC, southern Jersey looks good for a big day of storms.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The area around NYC Metro has cleared out more than Philly to Southern NJ has.

 

Nice and sunny on Long Island

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Uh oh. I would hate to have to say congrats south Jersey again. Rooting for getting the wettest July on record for NYC. Let’s go!

a foot of rain for the month

 

[crossbowftw3]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The area around NYC Metro has cleared out more than Philly to Southern NJ has.

 

Should be interesting to see what SPC does here in about 20 minutes, and then by 1630.

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The area around NYC Metro has cleared out more than Philly to Southern NJ has.

 

Yup getting party cloudy conditions in Somerset.

[dmillz25]

Mostly cloudy here but definitely have seen peeks of sun

[Will - Rutgers]

Mount Holly AFD puts a lot on the clearing this morning, maybe a surprise north/central Jersey jackpot due to the rain in SNJ this morning.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Mostly cloudy here but definitely have seen peeks of sun

Sounds like we should be in the action zone for once lol.  I live in extreme SW Nassau, about the same latitude as Allentown and I-78.

 

[Gravity Wave]

Sun breaking through here. 

[Rtd208]

Nudged slightly further north. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[FPizz]

56 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Mount Holly AFD puts a lot on the clearing this morning, maybe a surprise north/central Jersey jackpot due to the rain in SNJ this morning.

Socked in clouds here now after a sunny early morning walk.  

[Snowlover11]

we wedge. breaks of sun here in yonkers, otherwise mostly cloudy.

[LoboLeader1]

Patches of clear sky here, current temp 74.

[crossbowftw3]

Clouds beginning to win the fight in the Catskills, 68/64, thinking our biggest threat is likely heavy rain now.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Clouds beginning to win the fight in the Catskills, 68/64, thinking our biggest threat is likely heavy rain now.

yeah you're too far north.   Models jackpotting N NJ area

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah you're too far north.   Models jackpotting N NJ area

I definitely didn’t agree with the slight northward push of the slight risk at the 8AM update because north of 84 definitely isn’t seeing much severe today. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah you're too far north.   Models jackpotting N NJ area

Things aren't looking great. CAPE looks weak with all the clouds. Could end up being a high shear/low CAPE type affair. 

I would be surprised to see severe.

[user13]

Socked in with clouds here now

[JerseyWx]

In Wildwood today, curious how things play out.

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Things aren't looking great. CAPE looks weak with all the clouds. Could end up being a high shear/low CAPE type affair. 

I would be surprised to see severe.

heavy rain is the main threat here IMO.  

[Stormlover74]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0659
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Areas affected...Southern New England...Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291651Z - 292251Z

Summary...Thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon could
pose a localized flash flood risk with some hourly totals between
1-2" at times.

Discussion...An approaching line of storms from western/central
Pennsylvania may begin to grow upscale and strengthen as it
approaches the urban corridor of southern NY, NJ, and eastern PA
where some breaks in cloud cover and daytime heating will
contribute to an axis of sufficient instability within an axis of
higher moisture transport. Current visible satellite shows some
breaks in cloud cover this hour while regional radar had a
weakened line of showers and thunderstorms over western/central
PA. That activity is struggling with lack of instability but to
the east, the area is becoming increasingly unstable. This could
allow for the line to strengthen with an increase in rain rates.
The 15Z HRRR shows potential for isolated 2-3" totals in and
around the NYC metro and this lines up with the 12Z HREF which
suggested potential for totals to exceed the 5 year ARI. While the
storms should be relatively progressive and will limit widespread
flash flood threat, some localized instances of flash flooding
will be possible, especially for the highly urbanized corridor.

[Rtd208]

Tornado Watch in effect here until 9 pm.

[Rtd208]

It looks like NYC and NE NJ were left out of the watch at least for now. 

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Tornado Watch in effect here until 9 pm.

We know that some kind of watch was going up. I’m surprised that they put it up without a Meso Discussion first.

just had a quick 0.21 in a cell that popped up. Rain rate of 4.17.

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like NYC and NE NJ were left out of the watch at least for now. 

thats a different office.... UPTON hasnt updated yet.

[IrishRob17]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0401.html