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August 2021


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As you know, NYC (Central Park) broke the daily rainfall record for Aug 21 with the heavy downpours late in the day (4.45"). The previous record of 4.19" from 1888 was also of tropical origins. H3 of 1888 made landfalls in south Florida and Louisiana, then tracked northeast with the center shown near NYC by 00z Aug 22nd, later near BOS. It may have retained TS intensity until about that time. The max and min listed for Aug 21 1888 were 72 and 63, suggesting perhaps east to northeast winds all day with those downpours probably lasting most of the day (a further 0.13" was recorded after midnight for the 22nd in 1888). 

The Aug 22 record for NYC is only 1.85" (1994), part of a total 3.02" rainfall on the 21st-22nd that year. 

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Folks: Here's some daily rainfall as of 515PM for today only.... nothing from yesterday.  Many 3-4.5". 

I am thinking the 3-7" iso 10" nw NJ ne PA/se NYS may be too conservative.  I think we have a dire situation for those with basement flood problems, & that there will be road and bridge washouts, somewhere between I-80 and I84.  Doesn't mean it will happen but I do not like what is going on, to escape problems.   Follow NWS warnings including river stage forecasts.   The Ensembles were woefully underdone and that's why I think some of the large stream forecasts appear too me to be too conservative.

Screen Shot 2021-08-22 at 5.19.45 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-08-22 at 5.24.10 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-08-22 at 5.25.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-08-22 at 5.25.44 PM.png

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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

As you know, NYC (Central Park) broke the daily rainfall record for Aug 21 with the heavy downpours late in the day (4.45"). The previous record of 4.19" from 1888 was also of tropical origins. H3 of 1888 made landfalls in south Florida and Louisiana, then tracked northeast with the center shown near NYC by 00z Aug 22nd, later near BOS. It may have retained TS intensity until about that time. The max and min listed for Aug 21 1888 were 72 and 63, suggesting perhaps east to northeast winds all day with those downpours probably lasting most of the day (a further 0.13" was recorded after midnight for the 22nd in 1888). 

The Aug 22 record for NYC is only 1.85" (1994), part of a total 3.02" rainfall on the 21st-22nd that year. 

I didn't have 1888 on my list of wettest tropical storms or remains...

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NYC has had measurable rainfall nearly every weekend this summer since the Memorial Day weekend. But this was the wettest weekend by far. So it will be interesting to see if the Labor Day weekend continues this pattern.

NYC weekends 

May 29-30….1.35

Jun 5-6……….dry

Jun 12-13…….01

Jun 19-20……14

Jun 26-27……04

Jul 3-4………..34

Jul 10-11..……28

Jul 17-18…….65

Jul 24-25……49

Jul 31-Aug 1…04

Aug 7-8………21

Aug 14-15….dry

Aug 21-22….6.35…so far

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22 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I didn't have 1888 on my list of wettest tropical storms or remains...

I hadn't looked at it until this happened, it now becomes one of the heaviest 24h rainfalls not to be a daily record (there are a few higher examples). 

This may not be complete (top five that I found in the data base) but the following daily rainfalls are not daily records (the actual ones are also shown): 

LIST OF DAILY RAINFALLS >3.90" NOT DAILY RECORDS 

Rank __ Amt __ Date _______________ Record for date

01 ____ 5.60" __ Nov 8 1972 ________ 7.40" Nov 8 1977

02 ____ 4.26" __ Oct 8 2005 ________ 4.30" Oct 8 1903

03 ____ 4.19" __ Aug 21 1888 _______ 4.45" Aug 21 2021

04 ____ 4.05" _ Sep 21 1938 _______ 5.54" Sep 21 1966

05 ____ 3.90" _ Aug 9 1976 ________ 4.10" Aug 9 1942

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

I hadn't looked at it until this happened, it now becomes one of the heaviest 24h rainfalls not to be a daily record (there are a few higher examples). 

This may not be complete (top five that I found in the data base) but the following daily rainfalls are not daily records (the actual ones are also shown): 

LIST OF DAILY RAINFALLS >3.90" NOT DAILY RECORDS 

Rank __ Amt __ Date _______________ Record for date

01 ____ 5.60" __ Nov 8 1972 ________ 7.40" Nov 8 1977

02 ____ 4.26" __ Oct 8 2005 ________ 4.30" Oct 8 1903

03 ____ 4.19" __ Aug 21 1888 _______ 4.45" Aug 21 2021

04 ____ 4.05" _ Sep 21 1938 _______ 5.54" Sep 21 1966

05 ____ 3.90" _ Aug 9 1976 ________ 4.10" Aug 9 1942

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...
date.................amount........
Sept 1882.......10.63"
Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane
Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene

Aug 2021..........6.66+ Henri
Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie
Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria
Sept 1938.........5.74"
Sept 1934.........5.48"
Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd
Aug 1879..........4.59"
Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle
Oct 1877...........4.07"
Aug 1893..........3.94"
Sept 1904.........3.85"
Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob
Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria
July 1960...........3.56"
Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol
Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

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New York City's Central Park received its largest 2-day August rainfall on record. Through 8 pm, 7.04" had fallen. That broke the previous 2-day August record of 6.87", which was set on August 27-28, 2011. In addition, Central Park set a new hourly mark of 1.94" rain yesterday.

Daily rainfall records included:

Hartford: 3.15" (old record: 1.95", 1937)
New York City-JFK: 2.26" (old record: 2.00", 1994)
New York City-NYC: 2.59" (old record: 1.85", 1994)
Newark: 2.39" (old record: 1.70", 1994)

Tomorrow will see clouds break for sunshine. It will turn  noticeably warmer. There could still be a shower or thunderstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +3.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.833 today.

On August 20 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.447 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.637 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.3° (1.3° above normal).

 

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this was one of the biggest rain storms in NYC record weather history...

Wettest storms

11.83" 09/21-23/1882

11.80" 10/08-10/1903

..9.19" 11/07-08/1977

..8.45" 04/15-16/2007

..7.76" 09/13-14/1944

..7.04" 08/21-22/2021

..7.01" 10/12-13/2005

..6.87" 08/27-28/2011

..6.32" 08/12-13/1955

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This is the 4th wettest summer on record in NYC through yesterday.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2011 25.23 0
2 1975 22.40 0
3 1989 22.36 0
4 2021 22.29 9
5 2009 21.38 0
6 2006 20.79 0
7 2007 20.62 0
8 1928 20.50 0
9 1903 20.43 0
10 1927 20.01 0
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The next 8 days are averaging 82degs. (73/91), or +9.

Month to date is  77.0[+0.4].       Would be  78.4[+2.3] by the 31st.

No more rain this summer after this PM?.

72*(99%RH) here at 6am., Rain.          82*(84%RH) at 4pm.        84* at 5pm.       Reached 87*(65%RH) at 6pm.

 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the 4th wettest summer on record in NYC through yesterday.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2011 25.23 0
2 1975 22.40 0
3 1989 22.36 0
4 2021 22.29 9
5 2009 21.38 0
6 2006 20.79 0
7 2007 20.62 0
8 1928 20.50 0
9 1903 20.43 0
10 1927 20.01 0

Good morning BW. 2021 will probably be in second place before noon. As always ….

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46 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. 2021 will probably be in second place before noon. As always ….

The vegetation around the sensor will probably give new meaning to tropical rainforest.

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The vegetation around the sensor will probably give new meaning to tropical rainforest.;)

Maybe Don can do a pictorial of the ASOS surroundings and the sub forum can send it to Ken B. Dons pictures are worth more than a thousand words, which sadly never seem to be listened to. As always ….

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Just now, rclab said:

Maybe Don can do a pictorial of the ASOS surroundings and the sub forum can send it to Ken B. Dons pictures are worth more than a thousand words, which sadly never seem to be listened to. As always ….

The dense tree growth over the ASOS could be affecting the rainfall measurements in addition to the high temperatures. Notice how the new hourly record set with Henri was lower than all the other ASOS stations.

Hourly rainfall records

NYC…..1.94….8-21-21

JFK…..2.88….7-31-96

LGA….2.44….7-15-97

EWR…2.35….7-21-06

ISP……5.34….8-13-14

DD9CBBCF-F9CE-4B06-9F3A-BCD5DF783D32.jpeg.65be695982368fbc76d6f2415108eec2.jpeg

 

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Morning thoughts…

More August rainfall records are being washed away at Central Park this morning…

The August 21-22, 2021 rainfall total of 7.12” swept away the old 2-day August record of 6.87”, which was set during August 27-28, 2011. Through 7 am EDT, New York City’s 3-day total had reached 7.92”. That easily surpasses the old 3-day August mark of 7.20”, which was set during August 11-13, 1955.

Additional rain and showers are likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England as Henri gradually moves away from the region. Farther south, clouds will break this morning. New York City could see clouds break during the afternoon or evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s to middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 86°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.6°; 15-Year: 82.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.0°; 15-Year: 84.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 84.7°

Tomorrow mostly sunny and very warm.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The dense tree growth over the ASOS could be affecting the rainfall measurements in addition to the high temperatures. Notice how the new hourly record set with Henri was lower than all the other ASOS stations.

Hourly rainfall records

NYC…..1.94….8-21-21

JFK…..2.88….7-31-96

LGA….2.44….7-15-97

EWR…2.35….7-21-06

ISP……5.34….8-13-14

DD9CBBCF-F9CE-4B06-9F3A-BCD5DF783D32.jpeg.65be695982368fbc76d6f2415108eec2.jpeg

 

That’s a picture and a loud and clear thousand words, thank you. As always …

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When  was the last time we had a heatwave so soon after a tropical storm or hurricane? All the guidance has the 850 mb temps rebounding to the 18-20C range. So the warm spots can make a run on 95° with high humidity.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The dense tree growth over the ASOS could be affecting the rainfall measurements in addition to the high temperatures. Notice how the new hourly record set with Henri was lower than all the other ASOS stations.

Hourly rainfall records

NYC…..1.94….8-21-21

JFK…..2.88….7-31-96

LGA….2.44….7-15-97

EWR…2.35….7-21-06

ISP……5.34….8-13-14

DD9CBBCF-F9CE-4B06-9F3A-BCD5DF783D32.jpeg.65be695982368fbc76d6f2415108eec2.jpeg

 

The temperature readings gets alot of criticism but wind direction, speed and to some extent rainfall obs havent been great there either.

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75/72 here and Henri / ULL moving out and heat moving in.  Late season heatwave for many folks but the park is a rainforest now and may not exceed 89 this week.  850 temps peak at >18c by Wed (8/25) - Thu (8/26) so mid to perhaps a few upper 90s possible in the hot spots EWR / NENJ/CNJ.  Friday (8/27) still hot before transient front arrives later this coming weekend 8/28 - 8/29.  

 

Beyond there ridge rebuilds along the Atlantic and more heat looks to arrive by next week.

 

Longer range overall warm and higher heights into next month with tropics picking up in the Gulf. 

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15 hours ago, uncle W said:

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...
date.................amount........
Sept 1882.......10.63"
Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane
Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene

Aug 2021..........6.66+ Henri
Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie
Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria
Sept 1938.........5.74"
Sept 1934.........5.48"
Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd
Aug 1879..........4.59"
Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle
Oct 1877...........4.07"
Aug 1893..........3.94"
Sept 1904.........3.85"
Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob
Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria
July 1960...........3.56"
Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol
Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

 Henri gets into 2nd place in the list of wettest tropical storm or hurricane at NYC with 8.05” as of 8AM! Sept of 1882, the wettest at 10.63”, was from a TS (storm #4) moving up the east coast and it wasn’t as slow a mover it appears:

 

tracks-at-1882.png

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43 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hopefully this is the last week until next sporing nyc has a chance to reach 90 .. i am so looking forward to cool days gusty winds and crisp nights...

I wouldn't take that bet.

However in the near term there's signs of some cooler weather to start September.

Looks like strong Atlantic blocking and a neutral PNA will have some influence. Too early to tell just yet

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