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August 2021


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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Yea Gloria is a good example of that. Folks in New Jersey and NYC were mostly saying it was a bust but not out on Long Island. Good thing Gloria did not hit at high tide or the flooding would have been substantial. Bob held together nicely for being so far north. Really slammed eastern New England. Another 70 miles west and it probably would have been one of the worst hurricanes ever for Long Island.

One of the things about Gloria is that people thought it was going to be a Cat 4 hit, when it was abreast of ACY it was still rated as a 135 mph hurricane screaming north.

 

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One of the things about Gloria is that people thought it was going to be a Cat 4 hit, when it was abreast of ACY it was still rated as a 135 mph hurricane screaming north.

 

Gloria weakened to a cat 2 before hitting nc and weakened further before reaching ACY

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gloria weakened to a cat 2 before hitting nc and weakened further before reaching ACY

Yeah I think it might have even been extratropical up here.  I just remember the news broadcasts that day when we were home from school talking about it as a storm of the century disaster major hurricane about to hit us directly  it didn't even have a backside.

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22 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Would you say that this new track actually has more impact on us than the old one did? I don't recall the kind of damage we've seen in Sandy happen in our region from any of the previous storms I've witnessed (Gloria and Bob.)  Even that storm we had last August (I forgot its name) had winds stronger than I ever saw in either Gloria or Bob.  The rainfall is less but the winds have been higher.

 

 

The wind damage from gloria was definitely worse here in suffolk county, at least that’s what my dad says, I wasn’t born yet. From what I’ve read wind gusts might have been as high as 115 mph in eastern suffolk and western suffolk probably had gusts to around 90 or so, which is similar to sandy. But I don’t think there were any big storms that took out a lot of trees like Irene and the 2010 noreaster did before Sandy, prior to Gloria, so maybe that was why damage appeared worse. Surge was definitely way worse with Sandy; Gloria hit at low tide

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2 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

The wind damage from gloria was definitely worse here in suffolk county, at least that’s what my dad says, I wasn’t born yet. From what I’ve read wind gusts might have been as high as 115 mph in eastern suffolk and western suffolk probably had gusts to around 90 or so, which is similar to sandy. But I don’t think there were any big storms that took out a lot of trees like Irene and the 2010 noreaster did before Sandy, prior to Gloria, so maybe that was why damage appeared worse. Surge was definitely way worse with Sandy; Gloria hit at low tide

The hype for Gloria was way up there. So the areas to the west like New Jersey and the city did not get anything like what many expected. However from around eastern Nassau or even central Nassau on east it was pretty bad. I would say in my area we had tree damage very similar in both Sandy and Gloria. There were people without power in both storms for weeks. I had a wind gust in Sandy at my house of 80mph and I would say Gloria was similar. The eye of Gloria when it hit Long Island, not far from the Nassau=Suffolk border, was open and large. I remember the back side of the storm had very strong wind gusts with partly cloudy skies. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

A group of EPS members track Henri near the benchmark.  
 

C2F12B6E-4F66-4FC3-9F14-51D2892B16A2.thumb.png.465c0d3af2e9aa3e466bfffcca593726.png

one member hits JFK...then dies in Newark...if that happened some areas around here will have videos of cars floating down the streets between houses...

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Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly cloudy. Showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain are likely. West of New York City in an area running across eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and into central New York State, 1"-3" of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. New York City, Newark, and nearby areas will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Out West, Bismarck registered a high temperature of a near-record 104°. That was Bismarck's 14th 100° or above temperature this year. That tied the record for most 100° days, which was set in 1936. That mark could be eclipsed tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -0.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799 today.

On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.523 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.231 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal).

Finally, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.452 million square kilometers (JAXA) yesterday. That was the highest figure for August 16 since 2015. Nevertheless, Arctic sea ice extent will likely reach a minimum value near or just below 4.5 million square kilometers in September. The last minimum value at or above 5 million square kilometers occurred in 2009.

 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly cloudy. Showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain are likely. West of New York City in an area running across eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and into central New York State, 1"-3" of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. New York City, Newark, and nearby areas will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Out West, Bismarck registered a high temperature of a near-record 104°. That was Bismarck's 14th 100° or above temperature this year. That tied the record for most 100° days, which was set in 1936. That mark could be eclipsed tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -0.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799 today.

On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.523 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.231 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal).

Finally, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.452 million square kilometers (JAXA) yesterday. That was the highest figure for August 16 since 2015. Nevertheless, Arctic sea ice extent will likely reach a minimum value near or just below 4.5 million square kilometers in September. The last minimum value at or above 5 million square kilometers occurred in 2009.

 

Arctic sea ice only has a weak connection to our winters, right? I think minimum value is typically reached between the middle of September and the autumnal equinox?

 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly cloudy. Showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain are likely. West of New York City in an area running across eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and into central New York State, 1"-3" of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. New York City, Newark, and nearby areas will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Out West, Bismarck registered a high temperature of a near-record 104°. That was Bismarck's 14th 100° or above temperature this year. That tied the record for most 100° days, which was set in 1936. That mark could be eclipsed tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -0.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799 today.

On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.523 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.231 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal).

Finally, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.452 million square kilometers (JAXA) yesterday. That was the highest figure for August 16 since 2015. Nevertheless, Arctic sea ice extent will likely reach a minimum value near or just below 4.5 million square kilometers in September. The last minimum value at or above 5 million square kilometers occurred in 2009.

 

Don are the chances low for us getting 1-2" here and up to 3-5" in the Poconos?

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and humid today. Showers and thundershowers are possible. The heaviest rains will likely stay well west of New York City and Newark. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 86°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 85.7°

Tomorrow and Friday will become warmer.

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The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.(75/90), or +7.

850mb T stays between 16C---21C all the way to the 28th.

75*(90%RH) here at 6am, overcast.   81*(83%RH) by 2pm, hazy sun?

We may get more rain from Henri than Fred's leftovers.

Henri has the look of a Trapped Animal at 120hrs.-----but Best Path is still given as 200 miles further east.

 

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