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August 2021


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1 hour ago, imbeldar said:

Hanlon's razor is a principle or rule of thumb that states "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity". 

teah but I said malace which explains my stupidity...

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

This is the GFS ENS.,   so some of the extremes might be muted out, but no BN days here:

1628510400-DJBYDZD6dYo.png

 

Why do you keep posting these? They're waaaaay off and not even off by a little bit. I've seen day 1 forecasts that are a solid 10 degrees too warm. Garbage.

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are creating  a regressive climate damage tax which falls hardest on people with lower incomes.

PG&E has done some awful things in the past for which they were convicted.  I guess they never learned their lesson.

I ask again, why are corrupt companies like these even allowed to exist?

 

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are creating  a regressive climate damage tax which falls hardest on people with lower incomes.

We need to restrict people from moving into the urban wildlife interface.  We also have to curb animal farming and only allow sustainable farming and logging.  This is all in addition to weaning off of fossil fuels.

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10 hours ago, uncle W said:

how do these fires get started?...the more people living in dry places the more fires will start...either from stupidity or malace...you might get a dry thunder storm here and there with lightning...if you start a fire and it burns thousands of acres and kills animals and people you should pay a big price...

yup overpopulation is yet another problem

 

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10 hours ago, uncle W said:

how do these fires get started?...the more people living in dry places the more fires will start...either from stupidity or malace...you might get a dry thunder storm here and there with lightning...if you start a fire and it burns thousands of acres and kills animals and people you should pay a big price...

remember there was an idiot who started a huge fire last year or the year before all because of a gender reveal party and he used firecrackers in the middle of a mega drought.  I mean WHO CARES about what the gender of your dumb kid is going to be?  I would place all these people under house arrest for 10 years they shouldn't be allowed to leave their homes at all.  And they can take their gender reveal party and take the fireworks they used for them and stick them up their asses.  And put that on Youtube because that would be fun to watch.

 

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10 hours ago, lee59 said:

I just want to say that I am for renewable, clean energy. I would never throw trash on the ground and it annoys me a lot when I see others do it. I want our earth and its land and water and atmosphere to be as clean as possible. I just don't want to look at a problem without looking at all sides, in order to come up with good solutions. I only mention this because some may get the wrong idea about my thoughts about climate change.

bottom line humanity is the real virus on this planet and whatever nature has to do to clean up our mess, I'm all for it

 

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Temperatures rose into the lower and middle 80s in the region. However from Philadelphia southward, temperatures reached the 90s.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 9):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 18 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 36 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 16 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 24 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 17 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 29 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 24 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 13 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 33 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

A heat wave is likely in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month.

A much above normal temperature regime is now developing in the Pacific Northwest. Portland will likely experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. There is an increasing possibility that Seattle could also experience its second extreme heat event of the year.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +4.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.192 today.

On August 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.934 (RMM). The August 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.763 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (normal).

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

well to be fair at least he posted the ensembles this time lol

 

The charts are bad, period. Whether it's the ensembles or the op, the algorithm that makes up the chart is severely messed up or something as another poster pointed out earlier.

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

The charts are bad, period. Whether it's the ensembles or the op, the algorithm that makes up the chart is severely messed up or something as another poster pointed out earlier.

I'd say they are off by about 5 degrees.  It's useful to see when periods of hot and cool are most likely, just don't look at the actual temps lol.

The numbers I'm seeing from the locals seem to be in the 93-94 range, so 96 is just a little too high.  I never trust NYC summer temps though, so it's more likely LGA would reach those numbers.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the lower and middle 80s in the region. However from Philadelphia southward, temperatures reached the 90s.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 9):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 18 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 36 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 16 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 24 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 17 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 29 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 24 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 13 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 33 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

A heat wave is likely in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month.

A much above normal temperature regime is now developing in the Pacific Northwest. Portland will likely experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. There is an increasing possibility that Seattle could also experience its second extreme heat event of the year.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +4.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.192 today.

On August 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.934 (RMM). The August 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.763 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (normal).

 

Don is there a chance that Seattle hits 100 again?

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 85degs.(75/95), or +9.

+2sd(about 10F),  on the hottest days of the 8 only.     5900m to 5930m.

73*(95%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast.        75* by 9am.        78* by Noon.          81*(84%RH) by 3pm.          82* at 4pm.      Reached 85* at 6pm, shortly before TS/Rain started at 7:20pm.

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We need to restrict people from moving into the urban wildlife interface.  We also have to curb animal farming and only allow sustainable farming and logging.  This is all in addition to weaning off of fossil fuels.

This sounds political to me.  

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds will begin to move away. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in the region, except for lower 90s from central New Jersey southward.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 90°

Philadelphia: 92°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 86.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.5°; 15-Year: 86.7°

Hot weather will overspread the remainder of the Middle Atlantic region tomorrow. Much of the upcoming week will see above normal temperatures. 

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, climate change is also the reason that insurers are jacking up rates and refusing to write policies.

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/08/21/insurers-quietly-withdrawing-from-climate-risk-areas/

This is happening faster than most people realize, and could become a stampede.

In areas at increased risk from wildfire and flooding, Insurers are quietly jacking up rates, or refusing to write policies.
Climate gentrification already beginning to leave behind those who can’t afford to move – and might eventually become refugees.

New York Times:

Insurers are quietly reducing their exposure to fire-prone regions across the Western United States, putting new pressure on homeowners and raising concerns that climate change could eventually make insurance unaffordable in some areas.
Officials in California, Washington, Montana and Colorado are getting more complaints from people whose insurance companies have refused to renew their coverage. The complaints follow years of record-setting wildfires in both size and cost, a trend that scientists expect to continue as global warming accelerates. 
“I think that we are not far away from a lot of weather-related events being too expensive for most people to purchase comprehensive coverage,” said Carolyn Kousky, executive director of the Wharton Risk Center at the University of Pennsylvania. “What happens then is the big question.”
On Tuesday, California’s Department of Insurance issued a report quantifying that pullback. For the ZIP codes most affected by the wildfires in 2015 and 2017, the number of homeowners dropped by their insurance companies jumped 10 percent between 2017 and 2018.

In the 10 California counties with the most homes in high-risk areas, the number of homeowners’ policies written by major insurers, whose rate increases must be approved by state regulators, fell by 5 percent between 2015 and 2018, the department said. 
Another way of measuring the growing reluctance of insurers is the increase in demand for the state’s FAIR plan, which is effectively prohibited from turning away customers but typically charges higher premiums as a result. In those same 10 highest-risk counties, the number of homeowners getting coverage through that plan increased 177 percent while staying flat statewide.
“By not being able to find insurance, you then in turn can’t sell your home. If you can’t sell your home, then it affects the local property taxes,” said Ricardo Lara, California’s insurance commissioner. “This is really creating chaos.”
The trade group representing insurers said the fires of the past two years had compelled companies to reduce their exposure. Whether that pullback is temporary or permanent depends on what the state does next, according to Rex Frazier, president of the Personal Insurance Federation of California.
Mr. Frazier said the state should allow insurers to raise rates to better reflect the full cost of wildfire risk. He also called for more aggressive forest management, such as controlled burns to remove trees, brush and other fuel for wildfires, as well as requiring homeowners to keep more space between their houses and the vegetation around them.

The alternative — continuing to build homes in dangerous areas, combined with worsening fire conditions and premiums that don’t reflect the true risk of wildfires — is “not the recipe for a healthy market,” Mr. Frazier said.
Versions of that trend are playing out across the West. In Washington State, officials have been receiving more complaints from people in wildfire-prone areas about insurance companies, according to Mike Kreidler, the state’s insurance commissioner.
“Some companies are starting to re-evaluate their position in certain geographic areas, largely driven by eastern Washington right now, or at least we think so,” Mr. Kreidler said.

 

The alternative part at the end says a lot. Folks continue to build homes in dangerous areas. Insurance companies don't want to insure you if you live on the coast or in an area that has wild fires. The reason of course is risk. The risk out west was not a problem in the past because people did not live in these areas. Now they do and they start fires and climate change makes the fires worse. The coast has always been risky and continues to be.

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0.32 in the bucket from a morning thunderstorm mostly in C/S E-NJ.  73/71 NOLA like feel.  Humid / hot and storms chances starting today through Sat (8/14).  Peak of the heat arrives Wed (8/11) with 850 temps >18c  then Thu (8/12) rising to near or >20c through Saturday (8/14).  Some storm chances and left over clouds the only thing in the way of mid-upper 90s in the hotter spots.  I think the century mark will be hard pressed. 

 

Front comes through Sun AM and cooler for a bit Sun (8/15) through Tue (8/17) as we watch the remnants of the tropical systems that will ride the west coast of Florida.  Beyond that ridge over the top? Onshore / Southerly flow - more humid than hot but heat potential and warmer none the less later next week Thu (8/19) on

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s always been a test of how quickly our technology could advance to allow us to adapt to our environment. But with climate change, we’ll probably have to work out some type of managed retreat plan for the highest risk areas. We will need all the high tech advances we can get in the future to make the more inhabitable zones more hospitable for us.

I agree. The only part I may have some difference is on the managed retreat. Maybe we have to come to the realization that some places people should not live or live at their own risk. We all know the risk on the ocean, ocean storms and flooding. So we build house off the ground and put up walls. Out west they have to stop blaming climate change as the main culprit and start forest management, be careful with power lines, stop people from starting fires and so on.  If this isn't done nothing will change. So to me, it is start doing that immediately or move out. 

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