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August 2021


wdrag
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Temperatures rose well into the 80s today in many parts of the region. Newark reached 90° for the 40th day this year and Baltimore reached 90° for the 50th time this year.

Clouds will increase tomorrow ahead of moisture streaming northward from the remnants of IDA. It will be a warm day. Some locations could pick up a shower or thunderstorm.

Wednesday into Thursday will be cloudy with heavy rain likely. Much of the region will see a general 2"-4" of rain with local amounts at or above 6". Flash flooding is likely on account of the saturated ground from excessive August rainfall.

Overall, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +28.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.399 today.

On August 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.375 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.351 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.5° (1.5° above normal).

Finally, with the Arctic Oscillation having turned negative, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) will likely fall below 5 million square kilometers for the first time this year in tonight's report for August 30.

 

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Don, so 2011-12 was neutral after la nina correct?  Hence the awfully low snowfall totals after a quick start in late October.  Since this winter will likely be a la nina can we expect it to be much colder than 2011-12 was but still an early snowfall (maybe not October, but perhaps November this time?)  Just looking to see if you detected any trends with where fall and winter might be headed now that summer is coming to an end.  And perhaps an early end to east coast tropical activity too, just like we saw last year, with no east coast TC after August?

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, so 2011-12 was neutral after la nina correct?  Hence the awfully low snowfall totals after a quick start in late October.  Since this winter will likely be a la nina can we expect it to be much colder than 2011-12 was but still an early snowfall (maybe not October, but perhaps November this time?)  Just looking to see if you detected any trends with where fall and winter might be headed now that summer is coming to an end.  And perhaps an early end to east coast tropical activity too, just like we saw last year, with no east coast TC after August?

 

I am not yet confident about the winter. How warm Region 1+2 is relative to Region 3.4 could make a big difference in the winter outcome. 

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The last day of August is averaging 81degs.(74/88),or +9.

Month to date is  77.5[+1.4].       August should end at  77.6[+1.4].

The Summer(JJA) should end at 75.9[+0.7].

IDA remnants: CMC 2", GFS 5", EURO 6" from Wed. AM to Thurs. PM.

Reached 85 here yesterday at 5pm. 

75*(90%RH) here at 6am, scattered thin overcast.        80* by 10am.       83* by Noon.        86* by 2pm.        87* at 3:30pm.

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Newark moved into the 2nd warmest August spot with a +3.5 departure. Bridgeport is in 3rd place with only a +1.9 departure. ISP is in 5th place with a +2 departure. So the much warmer 1991-2020 climo makes it possible for some stations to have a top 5 warmest August at only a +2 departure. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2005 80.4 0
2 2021 79.9 1
- 2016 79.9 0
3 1988 79.7 0
4 1973 79.6 0
5 2018 79.2 0
- 1993 79.2 0
6 2001 79.0 0
7 2015 78.7 0
8 1995 78.5 0
- 1980 78.5 0
9 2002 77.9 0
10 2020 77.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2016 78.4 0
2 2018 77.9 0
3 2021 76.4 1
4 2020 76.3 0
- 2005 76.3 0
5 2015 76.1 0
6 1955 76.0 0
7 1980 75.9 0
8 2001 75.8 0
- 1973 75.8 0
9 2012 75.6 0
- 2003 75.6 0
10 1988 75.5 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1980 77.4 0
2 2016 77.3 0
3 2005 77.0 0
4 2018 76.7 0
5 2021 75.8 1
6 2015 75.7 0
- 1998 75.7 0
7 2001 75.6 0
8 2020 75.3 0
9 1988 75.0 0
10 1969 74.9 0
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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. A shower is possible in a few places, but most of the region should be dry. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 85°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.1°; 15-Year: 81.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.7°; 15-Year: 83.4°

Heavy rain from the remnants of Ida will impact the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during midweek. A general 3”-6” of rain with locally higher amounts is likely. Flash flood risks are elevate, as parts of the region have had an exceptionally wet last two weeks of August.

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84/64 and some breaks in the clouds.  With enough clearing today can push another 90 for the hot spots.  

 

Sep to open wet with remnants then a dry  cooler weekend 9/3 - 9/6.  Next week we watch another front potentially get hung up before warmer air arrives with rising heights into the east 9/10.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Aluminum chairs, don't know if wood would have made a difference???

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark moved into the 2nd warmest August spot with a +3.5 departure. Bridgeport is in 3rd place with only a +1.9 departure. ISP is in 5th place with a +2 departure. So the much warmer 1991-2020 climo makes it possible for some stations to have a top 5 warmest August at only a +2 departure. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2005 80.4 0
2 2021 79.9 1
- 2016 79.9 0
3 1988 79.7 0
4 1973 79.6 0
5 2018 79.2 0
- 1993 79.2 0
6 2001 79.0 0
7 2015 78.7 0
8 1995 78.5 0
- 1980 78.5 0
9 2002 77.9 0
10 2020 77.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2016 78.4 0
2 2018 77.9 0
3 2021 76.4 1
4 2020 76.3 0
- 2005 76.3 0
5 2015 76.1 0
6 1955 76.0 0
7 1980 75.9 0
8 2001 75.8 0
- 1973 75.8 0
9 2012 75.6 0
- 2003 75.6 0
10 1988 75.5 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1980 77.4 0
2 2016 77.3 0
3 2005 77.0 0
4 2018 76.7 0
5 2021 75.8 1
6 2015 75.7 0
- 1998 75.7 0
7 2001 75.6 0
8 2020 75.3 0
9 1988 75.0 0
10 1969 74.9 0

How did it do at JFK?  Also, because of how hot summers typically are here, isn't anything more than a +2 anomaly rare anyway?

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How did it do at JFK?  Also, because of how hot summers typically are here, isn't anything more than a +2 anomaly rare anyway?

 

JFK finished with the 11th warmest August temperature due to the sea breeze arriving earlier than the other stations which ranked higher.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2016 78.9 0
2 2015 78.5 0
3 2005 78.4 0
4 1980 78.0 0
5 2018 77.5 0
- 1984 77.5 0
6 1978 77.4 0
- 1969 77.4 0
7 1970 77.3 0
8 2001 77.2 0
9 1995 77.0 0
10 1955 76.9 0
11 2021 76.8 1
- 1991 76.8 0
- 1959 76.8 0
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

JFK finished with the 11th warmest August temperature due to the sea breeze arriving earlier than the other stations which ranked higher.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2016 78.9 0
2 2015 78.5 0
3 2005 78.4 0
4 1980 78.0 0
5 2018 77.5 0
- 1984 77.5 0
6 1978 77.4 0
- 1969 77.4 0
7 1970 77.3 0
8 2001 77.2 0
9 1995 77.0 0
10 1955 76.9 0
11 2021 76.8 1
- 1991 76.8 0
- 1959 76.8 0

I'll call it the bay breeze lol they get it before the south shore of Nassau County gets it.

Interesting that 2010 is nowhere on this list.

As far as August goes my two hottest were 1980 and 1995.  Chris, do you have a list of their top August 90+ day rankings?

 

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