Will - Rutgers Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro has alot of rain with the remnants i feel like the spirit is correct but this will end up overdone--a corridor of 3-inch rains as wide as Jersey is long? one of the more aggressive post-tropical cyclone forecasts i've seen up here especially for something landfalling so far away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: i feel like the spirit is correct but this will end up overdone--a corridor of 3-inch rains as wide as Jersey is long? one of the more aggressive post-tropical cyclone forecasts i've seen up here especially for something landfalling so far away. we're getting those high totals because of the high dew points....just look at what happened last night and today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we're getting those high totals because of the high dew points....just look at what happened last night and today the TC is its own environment though isn't it. i mean, it's the TC's moisture, and any forcing due to adjacent air masses, to get your rain totals. even if there's an mT airmass overhead ahead of the TC, wouldn't its moisture pale in comparison to the TC itself? what i'm saying is, as this thing crosses, is it going to drop a huge band of 4"+? i'm definitely not saying that can't happen but that's pretty crazy for a TC that's not stuck in some weird flow regime that just gets stuck over here. the rain map definitely shows it coming in and out in a pretty smooth fashion. i think extratropical storms tend to move faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: the TC is its own environment though isn't it. i mean, it's the TC's moisture, and any forcing due to adjacent air masses, to get your rain totals. even if there's an mT airmass overhead ahead of the TC, wouldn't its moisture pale in comparison to the TC itself? what i'm saying is, as this thing crosses, is it going to drop a huge band of 4"+? i'm definitely not saying that can't happen but that's pretty crazy for a TC that's not stuck in some weird flow regime that just gets stuck over here. the rain map definitely shows it coming in and out in a pretty smooth fashion. i think extratropical storms tend to move faster than modeled. that PRE has me worried, I think we saw the same thing in July when all hell broke loose even before the remnants got here. Our subways were flooded, it was a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 The last 3 days of August are averaging 79degs.(73/86), or +8. Still 3"-6" from IDA remnants. Month to date is 77.7[+1.4]. August would end at 77.8[+1.8]. More likely at 77.5. 68*(80RH%) here at 6am, overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy, breezy, and a bit warmer. A shower is possible, especially in western parts of the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 82° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.3° Newark: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 83.8° Powerful Hurricane Ida will make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a Category 4 hurricane. There is a small possibility that it could peak as a category 5 hurricane near or during landfall. Its rains will likely impact the Middle Atlantic region during midweek. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: i feel like the spirit is correct but this will end up overdone--a corridor of 3-inch rains as wide as Jersey is long? one of the more aggressive post-tropical cyclone forecasts i've seen up here especially for something landfalling so far away. The storm is also getting energized by the incoming trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Numerous stations in the OKX forecast zones went over 10 inches of rain for both July and August. Started a new thread to document all these extreme 10” rainfall months since 2003. Monthly Data for August 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 11.85 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 11.38 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.90 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 10.32 NJ HARRISON COOP 10.24 Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 14.76 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 12.54 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 12.06 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.43 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 11.09 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.04 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.01 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.98 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.75 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.68 CT STAMFORD 4.2 S CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT DURHAM 2.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.58 NY QUEENS 3.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.54 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.48 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.32 CT WEST HAVEN 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT REDDING 1.4 E CoCoRaHS 10.25 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.24 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 10.13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Another not nice weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy, breezy, and a bit warmer. A shower is possible, especially in western parts of the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 82° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.3° Newark: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 83.8° Powerful Hurricane Ida will make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a Category 4 hurricane. There is a small possibility that it could peak as a category 5 hurricane near or during landfall. Its rains will likely impact the Middle Atlantic region during midweek. Don, why don't we categorize these 150 mph + storms as Super Hurricanes like they call them Super Typhoons in the Pacific? I feel like that adds more attention and significance to them as well as 150 mph being a special benchmark (2x minimal 75 mph hurricane threshold, or 4x stronger using the square law). That said this will likely become a Cat 5 at landfall just like Andrew and Michael were, just look at the warmth of the waters there. Amazing on the 16 year anniversary of Katrina. I still think these truly special high end storms should get the moniker of "Super" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, why don't we categorize these 150 mph + storms as Super Hurricanes like they call them Super Typhoons in the Pacific? I feel like that adds more attention and significance to them as well as 150 mph being a special benchmark (2x minimal 75 mph hurricane threshold, or 4x stronger using the square law). That said this will likely become a Cat 5 at landfall just like Andrew and Michael were, just look at the warmth of the waters there. Amazing on the 16 year anniversary of Katrina. I still think these truly special high end storms should get the moniker of "Super" Good afternoon, Liberty. I understand your very good suggestion. I feel, if folks are not reacting to the adjectives dangerous and catastrophic, I wonder if ‘Super’ will really add to their sense of peril and ongoing ennui. As always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, why don't we categorize these 150 mph + storms as Super Hurricanes like they call them Super Typhoons in the Pacific? I feel like that adds more attention and significance to them as well as 150 mph being a special benchmark (2x minimal 75 mph hurricane threshold, or 4x stronger using the square law). That said this will likely become a Cat 5 at landfall just like Andrew and Michael were, just look at the warmth of the waters there. Amazing on the 16 year anniversary of Katrina. I still think these truly special high end storms should get the moniker of "Super" I am not sure. After all, we categorize them as major hurricanes at Cat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I am not sure. After all, we categorize them as major hurricanes at Cat. 3 I think they do that in all basins. But then there is a level above that which is everything will be destroyed, get the hell out of there. Basically nuclear bomb level kind of damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 High temp today of 74 with all the clouds...Humidity has been on the rise however with current DP of 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. A few locations could see a shower or two. Looking farther ahead, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures overall. Ida is continuing to batter Louisiana after having made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Ida will slowly move away from New Orleans overnight, but not before dumping additional heavy rain and inflicting further wind-driven damage. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop. The SOI was +13.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.963 today. On August 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.349 (RMM). The August 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.291 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.6° (1.6° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Currently 70*, DP 68, RH 94% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 It’s the new normal for nearly every summer since 2010 to make the top 10 warmest around the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 The last 2 days of August are averaging 81degs.(74/88), or +9. Month to date is 77.5[+1.3]. Would end at 78.2[+2.0] More likely 78.0. IDA leftovers 1" to 4". Then a sunny, BN holiday weekend---up to L.D. Yesterday 68-77 here. 72*(99%RH) here at 6am, FOG<0.1mile. 73* at 8am Fog<2.0miles. Fog is variable. 77* at Noon, hazy sun. 80* at 1pm. 82* at 4pm. Reached 85* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and warmer. A shower is possible in a few places, but most of the region should be dry. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 88° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.2° Newark: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.9°; 15-Year: 83.6° Heavy rain from the remnants of Ida will likely impact the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during midweek. A general 2”-4” of rain with locally higher amounts is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s the new normal for nearly every summer since 2010 to make the top 10 warmest around the region. The summers from 2010-2013 were soooo much better than this wet yucky muddy mess. Warm yes, truly hot no. This is the tropical weather I despise. We need geoengineering on a massive scale to balance out the excess rainfall here with the drought and pure heat of the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 80/73 and low level clouds burning off a bit but still parrtly to mostly cloudy. Outside chance of 90 in the hotter spots. More clouds tomorrow but warm and humid continues. Sep Wed (9/1) and Thu (9/2) Ida's remnants enhance front / merge to produce heavy rainfall and then pull down trough/cooler air Fri (9/3) - Mon (9/6). Think we see more 80s than 70s and are closer to normal. On the longer range similarly to late July we ride a 10 day to two lid on warmth/heat and may see a late season warmup towards the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: The summers from 2010-2013 were soooo much better than this wet yucky muddy mess. Warm yes, truly hot no. This is the tropical weather I despise. We need geoengineering on a massive scale to balance out the excess rainfall here with the drought and pure heat of the west. The 2010-2013 summers featured drier heat with more westerly flow. It’s been higher dew point S to SW flow heat since the super El Niño in 2016. LGA had a hotter summer in 2020 than 2010 since North Shore locations are far enough from the sea breeze. JFK needed the westerly flow in 2010 for its hottest summer. Dry heat summer in 2010 with the ridge to our SW Another moist heat summer in 2021 with WAR to our east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 40th 90 for ewr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The 2010-2013 summers featured drier heat with more westerly flow. It’s been higher dew point S to SW flow heat since the super El Niño in 2016. LGA had a hotter summer in 2020 than 2010 since North Shore locations are far enough from the sea breeze. JFK needed the westerly flow in 2010 for its hottest summer. Dry heat summer in 2010 with the ridge to our SW Another moist heat summer in 2021 with WAR to our east What will it take for us to get back to that amazing pattern of the early 2010s? I noticed EWR was hotter back then too EWR top summers are very similar to JFK. Measuring heat in terms of 90 and 100 degree days is how I like to do it, since number of hot days is how most people remember the summer. I also like the term climate change much more than global warming, since just calling it "warming" is a simplification of the profound changes we are causing to our planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 6 hours ago, SACRUS said: 80/73 and low level clouds burning off a bit but still parrtly to mostly cloudy. Outside chance of 90 in the hotter spots. More clouds tomorrow but warm and humid continues. Sep Wed (9/1) and Thu (9/2) Ida's remnants enhance front / merge to produce heavy rainfall and then pull down trough/cooler air Fri (9/3) - Mon (9/6). Think we see more 80s than 70s and are closer to normal. On the longer range similarly to late July we ride a 10 day to two lid on warmth/heat and may see a late season warmup towards the 10th. No sign of any tropical activity eh? It sounds like it might be like last year when we had the east coast tropical activity in July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: 40th 90 for ewr yay the summer can end in peace now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Chris, it sounds like you think it's going to take another super el nino to get another one of those scorching hot summers around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Made it to 85° today...had an isolated shower move to my s earlier knocking temp down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, doncat said: Made it to 85° today...had an isolated shower move to my s earlier knocking temp down. did the shower move through right as you hit 85 or would it have gone higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: did the shower move through right as you hit 85 or would it have gone higher? The rain was just to my s but the clouds and outflow cooled things...yes it was around 2pm so would have gone higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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