LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Tatamy said: With a track like this higher tides will begin to cause flooding in susceptible coastal areas Saturday morning. it's Wednesday this storm is coming in Sunday, that's 4 days away not a week away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Not concerned yet here inland with Henri, but coastal areas should already be getting put on notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 23 minutes ago, Tatamy said: With a track like this higher tides will begin to cause flooding in susceptible coastal areas Saturday morning. That’s a certainly no matter the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Should see some nice swells regardless of what happens. That WAR has been forcing tracks west so I wouldn't doubt the furthest west models here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: The main challenge is that the GFS is the furthest west global model. The UKMET, CMC, and Euro are more east. But the UKMET still impacts the Cape. The GFS is usually incorrect when it’s the furthest west on storm tracks. So we would need to see the other models shift further west in future runs for it to be believable. But it’s still too early in the game to pin down the exact track. We are heading into the highest tides of the month with the full moon. So even an offshore track will cause the swells at high tide to fill up the tidal pools on the back beach areas. At this point should we be looking at the tropical models more than the global models though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: The main challenge is that the GFS is the furthest west global model. The UKMET, CMC, and Euro are more east. But the UKMET still impacts the Cape. The GFS is usually incorrect when it’s the furthest west on storm tracks. So we would need to see the other models shift further west in future runs for it to be believable. But it’s still too early in the game to pin down the exact track. We are heading into the highest tides of the month with the full moon. So even an offshore track will cause the swells at high tide to fill up the tidal pools on the back beach areas. Bingo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Some more pokes of sun for longer periods and a very warm 85/73 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The gfs keeping things interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 hug!!!! is this a possibility or just the gfs, being the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Snowlover11 said: hug!!!! is this a possibility or just the gfs, being the gfs? Could be either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Theme all summer southeast Canada ridge trending stronger and it’s extending into the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 wow, might be time for an Henri thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The WAR May continue the west trend. This keeps up the mid Atlantic states might be in game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: wow, might be time for an Henri thread Indeed. I might start one tn or tomorrow morning depending on what the rest of the 12z suite and beyond shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Has there ever been a hurricane who heads directly west in our lattitude?..I know Sandy did that but that wasn't pure tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The next several model runs should be interesting with the NOAA Gulf Stream mission data and special balloon soundings. Overall, the models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast cycles. Figured that was coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 So it stalls over LI before heading towards cape cod 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The main challenge is that the GFS is the furthest west global model. The UKMET, CMC, and Euro are more east. But the UKMET still impacts the Cape. The GFS is usually incorrect when it’s the furthest west on storm tracks. So we would need to see the other models shift further west in future runs for it to be believable. But it’s still too early in the game to pin down the exact track. We are heading into the highest tides of the month with the full moon. So even an offshore track will cause the swells at high tide to fill up the tidal pools on the back beach areas. Chris according to this the blocking high is there to force the storm to the NW and into the tristate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, Rjay said: The gfs keeping things interesting It's the patriotic model we need to be Americans and support American models. #AmericaFirst lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Has there ever been a hurricane who heads directly west in our lattitude?..I know Sandy did that but that wasn't pure tropical. it doesn't matter if it's tropical or not, it's that blocking to the north which matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The next several model runs should be interesting with the NOAA Gulf Stream mission data and special balloon soundings. Overall, the models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast cycles. that Sandy-like blocking northeast of us could be the determining factor here, see the tweet I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 It’s time to pay attention I think but minor changes in the high/low orientation will affect greatly how it tracks. Could easily shift back to out to sea if the upper high over E Canada weakens or the trough becomes more of a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: Indeed. I might start one tn or tomorrow morning depending on what the rest of the 12z suite and beyond shows. RJ!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gefs is intriguing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Better there than here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Better there than here. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I think the WAR will keep the west trend going but equally important will be how strong Henri gets. Seems like a stronger system will get tugged further west in this scenario. That's something I'm keeping an eye on. So far the current strength matches what the gfs is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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