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August 2021


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57 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So it’s near a pool?

if all of the local ASOS sites are well above your readings that’s an indication your readings are off. I don’t know what else to say. 

Muttontown is 12 feet+ away from the pool.  I have two stations (N Syosset & Muttontown) a couple of miles within each other and they are .2 or so within each other during the day for their highs. They are fine.  I don’t live next to an ASOS which are surrounded by blacktop that are not in either neighborhood. When I lived in Great Neck it was hilarious seeing LGA always warmer yet I guess my GN station was just wrong all the time then too. Seems like you can’t accept microclimates of LI if they don’t read 90+ all the time. I’m tenths of degrees away from 90 at times at both yet they are wrong. Guess I should move the stations to the edge of the properties next to the street, winter lows will bust warm but at least I can have those hot summer temps. 

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8 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Muttontown is 12 feet+ away from the pool.  I have two stations (N Syosset & Muttontown) a couple of miles within each other and they are .2 or so within each other during the day for their highs. They are fine.  I don’t live next to an ASOS which are surrounded by blacktop that are not in either neighborhood. When I lived in Great Neck it was hilarious seeing LGA always warmer yet I guess my GN station was just wrong all the time then too. Seems like you can’t accept microclimates of LI if they don’t read 90+ all the time. I’m tenths of degrees away from 90 at times at both yet they are wrong. Guess I should move the stations to the edge of the properties next to the street, winter lows will bust warm but at least I can have those hot summer temps. 

Maybe you have a microclimate by you. Who knows. But it’s not representative of the general area. 

my station, which is in lockstep with all of the surrounding stations (including @STORMANLIwho is within a mile from here), is located in a large patch of grass in a shaded part of the yard. my dewpoint readings may be high because it’s over grass, but the temp is accurate. 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Maybe you have a microclimate by you. Who knows. But it’s not representative of the general area. 

my station, which is in lockstep with all of the surrounding stations (including @STORMANLIwho is within a mile from here), is located in a large patch of grass in a shaded part of the yard. my dewpoint readings may be high because it’s over grass, but the temp is accurate. 

My Syosset station has a higher DP than it should, probably because over grass as well like yours.  Trust me if my station was reading off compared to my other station 2 miles away, I'd be replacing it and looking to move it as well.  I even have a parking lot abutting part of my Syosset property.  It's representative for the N Syosset-Muttontown area btwn Jericho Tpke and Northern Blvd, as both stations are in that zone.  Whether the typography plays a role, who knows, as I haven't studied it.  I'm 210 feet in Syosset and 154 feet in Muttontown, as I recall.

As an aside, topped out at 88 for both.  87.8 in Syosset & 88.3 in Muttontown today.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Brutally hot out here, no wind and 90. Westhampton back to 90 as well. Really miss the sea breeze today. My house under renovation and we are relegated outside for meals 

I’m in Long Beach today and it was disgusting here too. I’m sure not as hot as my place but higher humidity might even it up. It’s that time of year. 

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Today featured temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. Cooler temperatures are likely starting tomorrow.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 14):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 21 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 42 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 20 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 10 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 9 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 28 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 21 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 6 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 8 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 21 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 14 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 32 (2020: 32 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 29 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 16 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 38 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 19 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 21 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)


A cold front will move across the region tomorrow. It could trigger showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will turn cooler. At least the first half of next week will likely see near to somewhat below normal readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -4.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.628 today.

On August 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.423 (RMM). The August 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.403 (RMM).

The August 12 preliminary amplitude would surpass the August record amplitude of 2.329 during Phase 2, which was set on August 16, 2009. Extremely strong passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at this time of year has often been followed by additional bouts of heat in the Pacific Northwest into at least mid-autumn.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.3° above normal).

 

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5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

wow, giant swallowtails are not common in this area

nice spot

There has been a northern expansion of the range of the giant swallowtail in recent years which has been linked to increasingly warm temperatures, and particularly to a lack of September frosts in regions of expansion starting in 2001. Larvae were then able to withstand a few frosts before they pupated. The immediate effects of this warming, as well as their effect on host plants and predators, can explain the giant swallowtail's range expansion.[11

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8 hours ago, binbisso said:

 I think what makes this summer feel less hot  is the constant breaks we've had.  The heat waves while impressive have been short lived.  We had the very cold Memorial Day weekend even though technically not summer cool 4th of July weekend  and then 2 cool weeks from late July into the 1st week of August.   the hot summers I remember is the relentless  90゚ heat from late June into early to mid August before we get that 1st refreshing cold front.  And those hot summers were usually dry too.  This year it's 3 or 4 hours of nineties with 100゚ heat index before a thunderstorm cools things off late afternoon

Yeah more breaks from the heat than in recent memory. Doesnt have to have alot of 90s but the relatively high amount of below 80 highs and some days mainly in the 60s all day hurt the perception to some people. There was a few deceptive midnight high temp days that were actually very cool for summer. Also lots of rain in July.  Early heat in June adjusted people to extreme heat, then run of the mill warm days dont hit the same after.  I wouldnt call it a cool summer, but I get how it could be perceived that way, at least east of the hudson.

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On 8/12/2021 at 9:03 PM, nycwinter said:

i live near the park

 

nws feels it is important to keep official readings in the park,,

yes for continuity, but there was a break in continuity when they switched to an automated system and stopped trimming the greenery.

It was an official heat wave on the south shore, the last three days it was 91-94-92 here.

That 94 on Friday was the hottest it's been here all summer.  And had a late high of 92 here on Saturday thanks to the west wind and the sun that broke out around 3 PM (the high was at 3:15 PM).

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2 hours ago, dWave said:

Yeah more breaks from the heat than in recent memory. Doesnt have to have alot of 90s but the relatively high amount of below 80 highs and some days mainly in the 60s all day hurt the perception to some people. There was a few deceptive midnight high temp days that were actually very cool for summer. Also lots of rain in July.  Early heat in June adjusted people to extreme heat, then run of the mill warm days dont hit the same after.  I wouldnt call it a cool summer, but I get how it could be perceived that way, at least east of the hudson.

it's not perceptive to me, I judge heat by number of hot days and that has to be number of 90 degree days.  For me the last several summers haven't been nearly as hot as 2010, 11, and previous summers were.

 

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2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

nice spot

There has been a northern expansion of the range of the giant swallowtail in recent years which has been linked to increasingly warm temperatures, and particularly to a lack of September frosts in regions of expansion starting in 2001. Larvae were then able to withstand a few frosts before they pupated. The immediate effects of this warming, as well as their effect on host plants and predators, can explain the giant swallowtail's range expansion.[11

September is now a summer month here

 

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7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I’m in Long Beach today and it was disgusting here too. I’m sure not as hot as my place but higher humidity might even it up. It’s that time of year. 

I HATE sea breezes and I love the land breeze that gave us this night dry heat day.

By the way I've been thinking about something, according to thermodynamics doesn't heat flow from hot to cold?  So shouldn't that imply that sea breezes should be rare (since they involve cold air over water going to hot land?)  How does the sea breeze manage to disobey thermodynamics laws?

 

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12 hours ago, Rjay said:

89 is my high here so far.  88 ISP (last hour)

wow you weren't as hot as I was and yet I'm closer to the ocean (2 miles from it), hit 92 here to complete the heat wave.  Why the discrepancy with the JFK temp on Thursday? It was 91 here that day and 94 on Friday, the hottest of the summer so far.

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11 hours ago, binbisso said:

 I think what makes this summer feel less hot  is the constant breaks we've had.  The heat waves while impressive have been short lived.  We had the very cold Memorial Day weekend even though technically not summer cool 4th of July weekend  and then 2 cool weeks from late July into the 1st week of August.   the hot summers I remember is the relentless  90゚ heat from late June into early to mid August before we get that 1st refreshing cold front.  And those hot summers were usually dry too.  This year it's 3 or 4 hours of nineties with 100゚ heat index before a thunderstorm cools things off late afternoon

I mean it's been hot but not among the hottest.  I have a specific criteria for hot and it depends on number of 90 degree highs.

The hottest summers to me have been 1983, 1991, 1993, 2002, 2010.

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not perceptive to me, I judge heat by number of hot days and that has to be number of 90 degree days.  For me the last several summers haven't been nearly as hot as 2010, 11, and previous summers were.

 

I understand many people have their own definitions of hot and cold weather but in the end I just go by the numbers.  Whatever they are, they are.  

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