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August 2021


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The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(74/92), or +5.       Seems like too much cloudiness during this period, to permit these highs.

70*(96%RH) here at 6am, FOG<1mi., drizzle.     69*/70* at 7am, fog mostly lifted.         80* by 1pm.         81* by 5m.

Multiple tropical points of interest.     Models will have to simplify by consolidating them.

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6 hours ago, psv88 said:

You are twisting and contorting as much as you can to convince yourself humans haven’t caused climate change. It’s hard to watch. 

 

The tilt of the earth can affect the climate but it takes thousands of years, that is just fact.  What is happening today  with our temperatures is happening way to fast for it to be anything with the earths tilt. My reference to quakes and earths tilt was only in regards to the north pole getting warmer and the south pole not. I believe humans are affecting the earths climate, however, I will admit I am not an alarmist like some. What does bother me is when the news media and some people try and make it sound like climate change is causing things like the fires out west. Most are started by people, just a fact. I do believe, however, that climate change is making the fires worse. However if you want to solve a problem you have to be truthful about what the problem is. Forest management, putting electrical wires in safe places, and so on, is how we can do something now to really make a difference in slowing those fires. 

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25 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

The tilt of the earth can affect the climate but it takes thousands of years, that is just fact.  What is happening today  with our temperatures is happening way to fast for it to be anything with the earths tilt. My reference to quakes and earths tilt was only in regards to the north pole getting warmer and the south pole not. I believe humans are affecting the earths climate, however, I will admit I am not an alarmist like some. What does bother me is when the news media and some people try and make it sound like climate change is causing things like the fires out west. Most are started by people, just a fact. I do believe, however, that climate change is making the fires worse. However if you want to solve a problem you have to be truthful about what the problem is. Forest management, putting electrical wires in safe places, and so on, is how we can do something now to really make a difference in slowing those fires. 

By the way the quakes and the tilt of the earth was just a long shot theory that I heard and not something I believe happened. LibertyBell reference to the North Pole being just water and the Antarctic being a continent makes a lot more sense in why the temperatures in those areas are doing what they are doing. 

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30 minutes ago, lee59 said:

What does bother me is when the news media and some people try and make it sound like climate change is causing things like the fires out west. Most are started by people, just a fact. I do believe, however, that climate change is making the fires worse. However if you want to solve a problem you have to be truthful about what the problem is. Forest management, putting electrical wires in safe places, and so on, is how we can do something now to really make a difference in slowing those fires. 

We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are creating  a regressive climate damage tax which falls hardest on people with lower incomes.

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Morning thoughts…

It will become partly cloudy today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in the region, except for upper 80s from central New Jersey southward.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 87°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.6°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 86.9°

Much of the upcoming week will see above normal temperatures. 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are leaving a regressive climate damage taxes which falls hardest on people with lower incomes.

Thanks.  Now I don't have to finish the post I started.   

Climate change is also the reason why the fires have been so large.  

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59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are creating  a regressive climate damage tax which falls hardest on people with lower incomes.

It is a problem with so many things fueling the flames, as you mention. So maybe the problem is being solved on its own. If we cant bury the lines because of cost, insurance is going sky high and people are just fed up with dealing with the horrible fires, then maybe less people will move their and more will move out and less fires will happen. (hopefully).  Yes when taxes are raised or rates are raised, it is always the lower income folks that get hit the hardest.. 

I guess another solution is to just say, you want to live here, then it will cost you. We need a lot of money to clear all land near power lines, insurance will be sky high. Anyone caught doing anything foolish in regards to risky behavior that can cause fires will face steep fines. Just like it is getting expensive to live on the water because of other risks.

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how do these fires get started?...the more people living in dry places the more fires will start...either from stupidity or malace...you might get a dry thunder storm here and there with lightning...if you start a fire and it burns thousands of acres and kills animals and people you should pay a big price...

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I just want to say that I am for renewable, clean energy. I would never throw trash on the ground and it annoys me a lot when I see others do it. I want our earth and its land and water and atmosphere to be as clean as possible. I just don't want to look at a problem without looking at all sides, in order to come up with good solutions. I only mention this because some may get the wrong idea about my thoughts about climate change.

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2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

how do these fires get started?...the more people living in dry places the more fires will start...either from stupidity or malace...you might get a dry thunder storm here and there with lightning...if you start a fire and it burns thousands of acres and kills animals and people you should pay a big price...

They say almost 90% of the fires are started by either people or something like power lines that people have built.

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13 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I also noticed the 1 and 2 coincidence for bad winters. It seems to have started in full in 1931-32.

I was just stiring the pot...or smoking it...this year could be the first 1-2 winter with over 40" and a foot or bigger snowstorm...its time to buck the trend...

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Little cut off system still spinning around and round. 79/67 here in CNJ and now partly sunny.  Up to upper 80s in the warmer spots today not too influenced by onshore / clouds.  The the heat is on (hottest 5 day Aug period since 2016 perhaps).  Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) 90s for most mid to upper 90s in the hot spots and in the extreme an isolated century mark or two but id say chances are low.  ECM has 850s peak at >18c Wed (8/11) and then near or >20c by Thu (8/12) - Sat (8/14). 

 

Sunday (8/15) front comes through but it looks warm/humid overall and more heat potential beyond there as E ridging rebuilds.

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

I was just stiring the pot...or smoking it...this year could be the first 1-2 winter with over 40" and a foot or bigger snowstorm...its time to buck the trend...

The -AO/+PNA fans are hoping that the Euro seasonal isn’t smoking something.;)


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7 hours ago, uncle W said:

how do these fires get started?...the more people living in dry places the more fires will start...either from stupidity or malace...you might get a dry thunder storm here and there with lightning...if you start a fire and it burns thousands of acres and kills animals and people you should pay a big price...

Hanlon's razor is a principle or rule of thumb that states "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity". 

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