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August 2021


wdrag
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On to August :  Open 3 - 4 days cooler than normal, coolest open to August since 2013.  The western atlanic ridge continues to be hinted at expanding west in the 8/5 and beyond timeframe.  So the progression and extent of the westward movement will need to watch.  Transition from dry and below average to humid and above normal and then some heat looks likely as we move into the next weekend (8/6).  

The ridge may build back slower and need to watch the boundary for hung up storms / rain before the heat.

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Models continuing with one of the strongest +PNA rises that we have seen in August. Looks like the GEFS mean gets to the +2.5 to +3.0 range. The record set in August 2009 was 3.1. So this is a continuation of the record ridging  that we have seen this summer over Western North America. As the WAR begins to push back against the Eastern Trough, there may be a stalled frontal zone in the East which will be the focus of convection. Probably need a few more days to iron out the daily storm details. But it will be a high dew point and PWAT regime where the front stalls out.

DC7B5F7D-1894-40F4-8FD3-FDAB9F37EF96.thumb.gif.2322d137ca11b923f547d2bda1c23f32.gif

8ABBFF21-9D81-4086-94A5-573761EBE047.thumb.png.d9de913ea37f8ed32cb65b17012d53f1.png

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing with one of the strongest +PNA rises that we have seen in August. Looks like the GEFS mean gets to the +2.5 to +3.0 range. The record set in August 2009 was 3.1. So this is a continuation of the record ridging  that we have seen this summer over Western North America. As the WAR begins to push back against the Eastern Trough, there may be a stalled frontal zone in the East which will be the focus of convection. Probably need a few more days to iron out the daily storm details. But it will be a high dew point and PWAT regime where the front stalls out.

DC7B5F7D-1894-40F4-8FD3-FDAB9F37EF96.thumb.gif.2322d137ca11b923f547d2bda1c23f32.gif

 

Seeing the same trends and the model progression of the W . Atl Ridge expansion is one that looks to transition from cool/dry to humid/wet (Aug 5) then humid/hot/wet (Aug 8)

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Seeing the same trends and the model progression of the W . Atl Ridge expansion is one that looks to transition from cool/dry to humid/wet (Aug 5) then humid/hot/wet (Aug 8)

EPS has a cooler first week of August with the front stalling near the East Coast. Then the WAR builds during the second week of August with warmer temperatures. So maybe that’s when we’ll have a shot at our next heatwave.

Aug 2-9

 

F5A750E1-85BC-434C-83A2-3BE261F66B4E.thumb.png.7a1a72e66e8e40698861a827e11bb885.png


1D9F88B6-04AA-4C81-BD5B-6BC6EAD5E265.thumb.png.4295157b62df847505196fed726d71e7.png

Aug 9-16

0EB39594-EC27-4CAF-9B71-223A175F29C4.thumb.png.c64638bac5a62d4196c095de0bb56221.png

 

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing with one of the strongest +PNA rises that we have seen in August. Looks like the GEFS mean gets to the +2.5 to +3.0 range. The record set in August 2009 was 3.1. So this is a continuation of the record ridging  that we have seen this summer over Western North America. As the WAR begins to push back against the Eastern Trough, there may be a stalled frontal zone in the East which will be the focus of convection. Probably need a few more days to iron out the daily storm details. But it will be a high dew point and PWAT regime where the front stalls out.

DC7B5F7D-1894-40F4-8FD3-FDAB9F37EF96.thumb.gif.2322d137ca11b923f547d2bda1c23f32.gif

8ABBFF21-9D81-4086-94A5-573761EBE047.thumb.png.d9de913ea37f8ed32cb65b17012d53f1.png

Agreed and warming above normal... it's potentially threatening for those few that get bombed with 6"+ rainfall in August's first two weeks.  I see a separate thread evolving but no timE to fully eval til Sunday, 

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  • Rjay pinned this topic

August looking to open cooler and drier through Thu (Aug 5)  perhaps the coolest opening Aug since 2013.  The W. Atlantic Ridge relocates west offshore and pumps southerly flow, so humid and warmer by the 5th and with it the boundary is left over or just west as the Western / Rockies Ridge roars and pushes the trough into the GL/OV.  The W. Atl Ridge currently modeled to build west but not as far as the Jun / Jul progressions.  So wet / humid Florida-like pattern for a few several days 8/5 - 8/8.  The trough lifts out and flow flattens and the second week of August looks to offer the next chance at some 90s/heat but suspect we remain humid and with rain chances.

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Some August Stats for NYC...

August..........................................................

decade...ave.....max...min ave max ave min
1870's.....73.7.......93.....53.....90.3.....57.0
1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.2
1890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.9
1900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.1
1910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.8
1920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.3
1930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.5
1940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.4
1950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.9
1960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.2
1970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.1
1980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.2
1990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.4
2000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.0
2010's.....76.4.......96.....59.....93.2.....61.2....
1870/1880-
2019 ave 74.6.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.3
1990-
2019 ave 75.9.....103.....56.....93.6.....60.3

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23 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing with one of the strongest +PNA rises that we have seen in August. Looks like the GEFS mean gets to the +2.5 to +3.0 range. The record set in August 2009 was 3.1. So this is a continuation of the record ridging  that we have seen this summer over Western North America. As the WAR begins to push back against the Eastern Trough, there may be a stalled frontal zone in the East which will be the focus of convection. Probably need a few more days to iron out the daily storm details. But it will be a high dew point and PWAT regime where the front stalls out.

DC7B5F7D-1894-40F4-8FD3-FDAB9F37EF96.thumb.gif.2322d137ca11b923f547d2bda1c23f32.gif

8ABBFF21-9D81-4086-94A5-573761EBE047.thumb.png.d9de913ea37f8ed32cb65b17012d53f1.png

is this why it feels like we're in an el nino pattern, Chris?

 

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18 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Some August Stats for NYC...

August..........................................................

decade...ave.....max...min ave max ave min
1870's.....73.7.......93.....53.....90.3.....57.0
1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.2
1890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.9
1900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.1
1910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.8
1920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.3
1930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.5
1940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.4
1950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.9
1960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.2
1970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.1
1980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.2
1990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.4
2000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.0
2010's.....76.4.......96.....59.....93.2.....61.2....
1870/1880-
2019 ave 74.6.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.3
1990-
2019 ave 75.9.....103.....56.....93.6.....60.3

wow 100s are very rare in August

 

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I think the peak of the heat has passed and this year it was unusually early (late June). 

There's nothing that screams big heat into mid August but it should be warmer than normal/dewy & stormy maybe. 

After August 20 the chance of 95+ temps drop off rapidly but that doesn't mean it can't happen. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

is this why it feels like we're in an el nino pattern, Chris?

 

Such an anomalous ridge centered near Montana for June and July doesn’t really match any ENSO composites for this time of year.  It was the strongest June and July ridge that I could find for that area. 2006 and 2007 had the previous strongest ridge. But you can see this year has a more impressive 500mb anomaly.

7A16155D-1ECF-4BE6-8D73-499FD548E013.gif.01779edc93cad5ce10d8e8f406e1df6c.gif
076D237A-424B-4A3F-8054-D2F88706C294.png.bdf09026ef08acf9df28bb9acf3334c2.png

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Such an anomalous ridge centered near Montana for June and July doesn’t really match any ENSO composites for this time of year.  It was the strongest June and July ridge that I could find for that area. 2006 and 2007 had the previous strongest ridge. But you can see this year has a more impressive 500mb anomaly.

7A16155D-1ECF-4BE6-8D73-499FD548E013.gif.01779edc93cad5ce10d8e8f406e1df6c.gif
076D237A-424B-4A3F-8054-D2F88706C294.png.bdf09026ef08acf9df28bb9acf3334c2.png

Chris have you heard about the anomalous freeze and snowfall in central and southern Brazil thats destroying so many crops there?  Is that part of the same problem?

 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think the peak of the heat has passed and this year it was unusually early (late June). 

There's nothing that screams big heat into mid August but it should be warmer than normal/dewy & stormy maybe. 

After August 20 the chance of 95+ temps drop off rapidly but that doesn't mean it can't happen. 

This year reminds me of 1996, remember we had peak heat in late May and then a humid summer with a lot of rain but not much heat.  We only hit 90 once in summer, and that was on the last day of August.

We also got hit by a 65 mph tropical storm (Bertha) after July 4th weekend whose center passed right over JFK.  Got 7" of rain from that in the Poconos, that lasted an entire day.  That was a Cat 3 as it approached the NC coast earlier.

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This year reminds me of 1996, remember we had peak heat in late May and then a humid summer with a lot of rain but not much heat.  We only hit 90 once in summer, and that was on the last day of August.

We also got hit by a 65 mph tropical storm (Bertha) after July 4th weekend whose center passed right over JFK.  Got 7" of rain from that in the Poconos, that lasted an entire day.  That was a Cat 3 as it approached the NC coast earlier.

 

 

the 11 yr solar cycle did not work out this year-was expecting 1988 style heat....

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was too, but I guess people in the West feel differently lol

 

The record ridge and drought allowed Boise to surpass their previous warmest June and July by nearly 3°.

 

Time Series Summary for Boise Area, ID (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31
Missing Count
1 2021-07-31 79.7 2
2 2007-07-31 76.9 0
3 2015-07-31 76.3 0
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the last four days in August 1953 were 100 degrees or higher at Newark...Sept 2nd was 105 in Newark for the warmest of the summer and fifth time in six days 100 or better...1976's hottest day at Newark was 93 first hit in April and tied in June and August...

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The GEFS Extended is promising a super, but dry, HW Period after that initial heavy rain about the 8th----as shown on the EURO.

Lasts from say August 9----21.         Then T crashes to Normal.    lol.          The Control actually has 7 straight 100's.       Last splash in the Frying Pan for the GFS this season.       RIP

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