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Central & Eastern Pacific Thread


Windspeed
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Pamela really seems to be struggling with some westerly shear and dry air. You can see outflow boundaries from collapsing storms on the NW side and cloud tops are definitely being sheared from the west. Hurricane hunters will be in the storm later today and I’m wondering if they will find more shear is present than being analyzed at the moment. Definitely not the sexy hurricane I was expecting that we’d seen on models over previous few days. NHC continues to advertise the storm being near major hurricane status at landfall but I’m seriously doubtful looking at the presentation this morning and the fact this thing is about to be ejected to the NE. Likely to be a half-a-cane regardless 

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55 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

NHC had Pamela landfalling as a Major.  Doesn't seem likely.

I’m not going to say there’s a 0% chance being it’s over bathtub water, but it’s less than 10% this thing gets even close to major imo. Heck, it’s entire center of circulation is now exposed and recon’s first pass has a small area of stronger winds well away from the center. It’s definitely not strengthening and if anything has weakened since overnight 

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Pretty bad intensity forecast wise from most models across the board with Pamela this past week. I remember everyone thinking this could be a Cat 4 landfall not too long ago, now it’ll probably be a Cat 2 at highest possible intensity, and even that is a long shot, although I’m sure a lot of people on the west coast of mexico are happy they didn’t get a patricia redux

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7 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Pretty bad intensity forecast wise from most models across the board with Pamela this past week. I remember everyone thinking this could be a Cat 4 landfall not too long ago, now it’ll probably be a Cat 2 at highest possible intensity, and even that is a long shot, although I’m sure a lot of people on the west coast of mexico are happy they didn’t get a patricia redux

While I’m sure this strengthens when it turns northeast this is one of the worst model/forecast intensity performances of the season. SHIPS had a very high chance of RI even 24 hours ago for the present time. Seems everything underestimated the north, NW shear. That being said, the system has a vigorous circulation and with shear vector improving and bath tub water beneath it this should still be a strengthing hurricane through LF though it will definitely be a half-a-cane and 85 kts seems like a reasonable ceiling, which is far less than what it seemed most of the week

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I know no one is following this thread but this could be one of the worst landfalling intensity busts in recent memory. Forecasting a 120 mph hurricane and noting it could be higher and realizing a TS-minimal hurricane would be a nightmare for publicity if this was happening in the US inside 36 hours. I know intensity forecasts are tough, but yikes 

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13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know no one is following this thread but this could be one of the worst landfalling intensity busts in recent memory. Forecasting a 120 mph hurricane and noting it could be higher and realizing a TS-minimal hurricane would be a nightmare for publicity if this was happening in the US inside 36 hours. I know intensity forecasts are tough, but yikes 

The only recent US hurricane bust I can think of that was that bad was probably Florence, nhc was predicting at Cat 4 landfall at some point if i remember correctly 

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2 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

The only recent US hurricane bust I can think of that was that bad was probably Florence, nhc was predicting at Cat 4 landfall at some point if i remember correctly 

Being from NC with property in Carteret county, it’s pretty dang hard to see Florence and “bust” in same sentence but I guess if we’re going off pure LF intensity than I’ll agree haha!
 

Florence slowed down to a crawl which meant it’s intensity was not sustainable over shelf waters but it became one of the most damaging storms in history due to that slow speed. 
 

Also, it at least attained and maintained cat 4 multiple times. Pamela made it to 70 kts 

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Not quite a 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa's mid-level center crossing over a very shallow cold air mass with flow off the Gulf just off the surface and raining so much the San Jacinto river in Houston gouged itself deep enough to uncover and rupture gasoline and diesel pipelines and set the river on fire, but SW flow is bringing Pamela's remnants up along a stationary boundary with seasonably high 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of it, prompting WPC to put the areas near and W of I-35 in a Moderate Risk for excessive flooding with 5-7 inch rain totals. One picture is the San Jacinto river on fire, the other is the stationary front the ML center of Pam should track over.

sanjac.jpg

TangentiallyRelated.PNG

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Being from NC with property in Carteret county, it’s pretty dang hard to see Florence and “bust” in same sentence but I guess if we’re going off pure LF intensity than I’ll agree haha!
 

Florence slowed down to a crawl which meant it’s intensity was not sustainable over shelf waters but it became one of the most damaging storms in history due to that slow speed. 
 

Also, it at least attained and maintained cat 4 multiple times. Pamela made it to 70 kts 

Yeah I stand corrected, it really isn’t all that comparable. Looking at the Florence archive, it was only forecasted to be a Cat 4 at landfall before the stall was a factor. After it started showing up on model runs, it was lowered to Cat 3 and eventually 2, (i honestly think it might have been a 85 kt hurricane at landfall). Plus the intensity had no effect on the severe flooding that you guys experienced

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  • 2 weeks later...

NHC is forecasting a Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Rick. But the core looks to be in a favorable environment for some beefy rapid intensity gains over the next 24 hours. Leaning towards Rick being a Category 4 landfall near or between Lázaro Cárdenas and Zihautanejo. Hopefully not a direct hit on either city.
4e049f5757196a4cfb903d8fba22d9a5.gif

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