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Central & Eastern Pacific Thread


Windspeed
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Already at the "F" named storm and we didn't even make a thread. We have not seen anything crazy at this point, but it's not exactly been quiet either. Felicia is intensifying and expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow. No threat to land. I am sure someone will want to post "bye" when it dissipates over cooler surface waters next week.

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Felicia has undergone quite a spurt of RI since yesterday. A TD to a 75 kt storm in under 24 hours. Looks pretty organized this morning as well, so it seems to be continuing the trend and will possibly become a major. With the track continuing to shift south, it keeps the storm over warmer SST than originally forecast. One thing noted in this mornings discussion will be the dry air surrounding the system later in the forecast period. While this can certainly cause weakening, looking at the HWRF model, the storm takes on an annular appearance later on. With low shear, this is certainly possible especially if the storm continues to strengthen in the short term. Fairly common in the E Pac too 

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I follow a page called Force Thirteen on FB and they claimed this hit cat 5 status 4hrs ago. Anyone know if that's true?
No. There is certainly nothing official with regards to forecast discussion or analysis that suggests this is a Category 5. TAFB Dvorak analysis hit T6.5/127 kts per discussion and ADT numbers are about 10 kts lower. Felicia has already maxed out for an annular-type TC within the current thermodynamic environment. It would need to drop a bit more latitude and reach warmer SSTs to get any stronger. Even with cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, Felicia's core is riding a 26.5 to 27°C isotherm. Its eyewall has probably maxed out potential intensity at its current westward vector of motion.
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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
32 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:
I follow a page called Force Thirteen on FB and they claimed this hit cat 5 status 4hrs ago. Anyone know if that's true?

No. There is certainly nothing official with regards to forecast discussion or analysis that suggests this is a Category 5. TAFB Dvorak analysis hit T6.5/127 kts per discussion and ADT numbers are about 10 kts lower. Felicia has already maxed out for an annular-type TC within the current thermodynamic environment. It would need to drop a bit more latitude and reach warmer SSTs to get any stronger. Even with cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, Felicia's core is riding a 26.5 to 27°C isotherm. Its eyewall has probably maxed out potential intensity at its current westward vector of motion.

I agree with you. Someone needs to call out this page for spreading false information. 

Screenshot_20210717-120834_Facebook.jpg

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Felicia indeed still looks impressive. Some WSW VWS should begin increasing over the next 24-36 hrs. This combined with a subtle decrease in thermodynamic support should bring on a gradual weakening into abrupt faster weakening into Tuesday. The HWRF shows a period of rapid weakening on Tuesday as the MLC gets decoupled.
7889d502e1e163696f16d6ce553a0d49.gif

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Felicia at 18z on Tuesday per HWRF. I suspect it will weaken even faster than the HWRF is modeling due to very dry stable airmass being advected into the core with the increasing southwesterly VWS.806b30dd90ac1901dae77c0385fd866a.jpg

Felicia’s days are numbered, but it definitely defied modeling and dry air with light shear, annular hurricanes are amazing specimens. They are almost completely self sustaining when shear remains light, even completely wrapped by a dry environment. Would have LOVED to see some radar images from this storm 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Hurricane Linda in the EPAC looks like its entering a period of RI. This may really go nuts over the next 24 hours. If this seems eerily familiar, that's because the name Linda is synonymous with powerful EPAC hurricanes. 1997 Major Hurricane Linda reached Category 5 intensity and is eclipsed only by Patricia as the most powerful EPAC hurricane on record. The name did not get retired despite the achievement and impacts on Socorro Island however. It nearly made landfall there and destroyed infrastructure without killing anyone fortunately.

This year's Linda likely will not reach its predecessor's lofty status, but Category 4 cannot be ruled out here. This is clearly bombing.7a2d188a33e0790d3617f0256bc0593f.gif57aad8b4981be789d5e5515f525ea0c5.jpg

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Grace's remnant surface trough is redeveloping into a cyclone SSE of Cabo San Lucas. Explosive convection is persistent and likely to regenerate a closed vortex at this rate. This will get a new name if reaches TS strength even though Grace is the source of the disturbance. Per WMO rules, a tropical system must remain classified between basins to retain its original name.fc29aa39e7d0956fe0c4ae5e656e5577.gif

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