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July 14 severe potential


CheeselandSkies
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18Z HRRR is less interesting from a :twister:chase perspective (surprise surprise), but it suggest 3 rounds of storms might be possible for S. WI. One around 18-20Z, one 20-22Z (which is portrayed as the strongest despite seemingly insufficient recovery time after the first) and another around 04-06Z overnight into Thursday morning. This would certainly help with our precip deficit if nothing else.

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Am currently liking prospects for training t storms and possible multiple rounds over the Chi town area later this afternoon and evening..  At 2:30 a.m. CDT this a.m. t storms extend south through Nebraska almost to the KS line.  Have a hunch the enhanced might be pulled a hair southward as well as we go through the day.  Possibly one of the few and far between interesting days we have had this year coming up for our region.

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15 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Am currently liking prospects for training t storms and possible multiple rounds over the Chi town area later this afternoon and evening..  At 2:30 a.m. CDT this a.m. t storms extend south through Nebraska almost to the KS line.  Have a hunch the enhanced might be pulled a hair southward as well as we go through the day.  Possibly one of the few and far between interesting days we have had this year coming up for our region.

Haven't really paid much attention till I read this comment, I know it's not a crazy severe prospect day but I'll take any type of exciting weather honestly. 

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2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Am currently liking prospects for training t storms and possible multiple rounds over the Chi town area later this afternoon and evening..  At 2:30 a.m. CDT this a.m. t storms extend south through Nebraska almost to the KS line.  Have a hunch the enhanced might be pulled a hair southward as well as we go through the day.  Possibly one of the few and far between interesting days we have had this year coming up for our region.

ride it

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Not surprisingly, the SPC’s NAM is much too far north and slow still with the current evolution, and is toss worthy.

Luckily they have at least some sense of awareness, and have baby stepped south the past two outlook cycles.

Edit: To add... The 6z NAM is about the size of Iowa off on the placement of the MCV currently. (And much too slow as I mentioned)

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12Z HRRR has the current Iowa/MN stuff mostly dissipating/lifting into MN by early afternoon, with a somewhat cellular to broken line appearance to the later afternoon convection that develops in IA/WI. :twister:

06Z 3KM NAM OTOH shows us getting split. Develops a big MCS/bow echo in MN/northwestern WI in the early evening that largely dies out before it gets here in the early morning hours of Thursday, with more storms developing in northern IL.  :huh:

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12Z HRRR has the current Iowa/MN stuff mostly dissipating/lifting into MN by early afternoon, with a somewhat cellular to broken line appearance to the later afternoon convection that develops in IA/WI. default_tornado1.gif
06Z 3KM NAM OTOH shows us getting split. Develops a big MCS/bow echo in MN/northwestern WI in the early evening that largely dies out before it gets here in the early morning hours of Thursday, with more storms developing in northern IL.  default_huh.png

6z 3km NAM isn’t handling things well.


.
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14Z HRRR remains rather insistent that current IA complex should weaken and clear out paving the way for significant storms around peak heating hours, but it seems to be holding its own although all warnings have been allowed to expire for some time now. Anvil debris has overspread Madison with a milky overcast in place at 1030.

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14 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Is there any point in chasing today, either in S Wisconsin or far NW IL/IA?

Hard to tell. Pretty clear now that HRRR was out to lunch with its depiction of the early round dying out by early afternoon, new warning approaching the Dubuque area.

HRRR had the line much weaker at 17Z than reality even as recently as the 15Z run...and remained insistent on a significant supercell traversing NE Iowa around 22-23Z. We'll see if it holds steadfast despite the more vigorous early round/seeming lack of major clearing behind it on current satellite.

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Differential heating boundary draped north of I-80 in Iowa looks to be the focal point later. Mesoanalysis progs have large 0-3 km CAPE in that zone and there should be a fair amount of near-surface vort with backing surface winds in its vicinity.

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32 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Differential heating boundary draped north of I-80 in Iowa looks to be the focal point later. Mesoanalysis progs have large 0-3 km CAPE in that zone and there should be a fair amount of near-surface vort with backing surface winds in its vicinity.

Yeah, looking at roughly a Waterloo-Cedar Rapids-Marshaltown triangle. I can be there in about 3 1/2 hours. Problem is (1) I'm still at work, staying late since our meteorologist wants to be ready to go live should the line moving through our market area get warned, and (2) I'll have to drive through that line to get to the target area.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

   Areas affected...southern Wisconsin...far northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141901Z - 142100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage or marginal hail will be possible
   over the next few hours, mainly focused over southern Wisconsin.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive line of storms currently stretches from
   central into southern WI, and across northwest IL where the line
   contains less trailing stratiform precipitation. Indications of
   strong to possible severe gusts are currently present with activity
   north of the IL border, and these storms may persist as the air mass
   remains favorably unstable despite high cloud cover. Around 1000
   J/kg MLCAPE exists ahead of these storms, extending south into IL.

   Some uptick in storm intensity is possible as the line moves into
   slightly more unstable air. Aside from isolated damaging gusts,
   marginal hail may occur at times. Convective trends are currently
   being monitored for watch potential.

   ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/14/2021

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