SRRTA22 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Thanks for blessing our subforum with great insight and forecasts Walt. Youve been killing it these last few years. Tomorrow looks really interesting as youve stated. With a much needed and much deserved break after. What a month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 the 3k nam shows early morning convection which would suppress the afternoon activity south of the city. that's only one possibility though and the hrrr shows a clear warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 57 minutes ago, wdrag said: Power outages Sussex County NJ Very uncomfortable night to be without A/C, hopefully utility crews will get power restored in that part of Sussex County. Currently 80 here as of 10:30PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said: What do you want them to do, issue a FFW for one or two counties? The ffw is warranted. Some places will miss and some places may flood. I would keep the flash flood watch to the western half of the city and west, although I guess to be safe they included Nassau County. Models seem to be killing anything east of the city right away in the seabreeze. Hopefully we can get a reprieve from the humidity ASAP, that's what I'm hoping for. I'll be surprised if anything more than a moderate shower makes it out past here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the 3k nam shows early morning convection which would suppress the afternoon activity south of the city. that's only one possibility though and the hrrr shows a clear warm sector Nams been consistent with it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: And the discussion with the map below. We’ll see what they have in the next update. SPC AC 161728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and northern/central Plains on Saturday. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow should be maintained Saturday across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a positively tilted upper trough. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes across NY and into southern New England by Saturday evening. A cold front should extend southwestward from this surface low across the Mid-Atlantic and into the central Appalachians, while a weak warm front extends across southern NY and southern New England. Current expectations are for multiple clusters of storms to develop along/ahead of the cold front and a pre-frontal trough through the day, and subsequently move eastward across the warm sector. Low/mid-level flow should not be overly strong, but generally 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should be sufficient for modest updraft organization and mainly a multicell/cluster storm mode. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass ahead of these storms will likely foster steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic east of the Appalachian and Blue Ridge Mountains. Isolated damaging wind gusts should be the main threat. Both low-level and deep-layer shear may be slightly stronger across southern NY/New England, and marginal supercells posing both an damaging wind and brief tornado threat appear possible, particularly in the vicinity of the weak warm front. Upton's AFD, Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1104 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving frontal boundary will stall across the area tonight, then lift northward as a warm front on Saturday. A separate weak cold front will then slowly approach from the west Saturday night, move across on Sunday, and pass slowly east on Monday. Another weak frontal boundary will approach on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will then build in for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Frontal boundary remains across the area overnight. As a result, light and variable winds and high humidity will keep low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Expect fog to develop again across eastern Connecticut and Long Island, perhaps even more widespread compared to previous nights as winds decrease and/or go calm in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. The 00Z NamNest shows an area of convection blossoming across south central PA and working NE into the area during the early morning hours. Latest HRRR, FV3, ARW, don`t support this scenario. However, latest regional radar does show development in this area, even ahead of the NamNest timing. There is little if any upper forcing with the main lift being provided by the surface boundary. So, have my doubts to the longevity of this convection. Simply put, it will have to watched and chances may need to be increased should this area continue to hold together the next several hours. Regardless, the potential exists for at least isolated showers/thunderstorms overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A flash flood watch remains in effect for portions of the area for Saturday afternoon and night. As high pressure shifts offshore and a frontal wave approaches from the west, moisture advection will allow PWAT values to increase to above 2 inches. Despite a general forward motion of the storms around 20-30 kt, heavy rainfall combined with antecedent wet conditions due to previous rainfall will lead to an increased threat of flash flooding across the areas within the watch. The period of greatest potential will be from roughly 8 pm into the overnight. Additionally, storms will be capable of gusty winds and perhaps brief rotation, especially in the vicinity of the surface low and to the north. Otherwise, onshore flow and cloud cover will lead to cooler temperatures compared to previous days, though with dew points remaining high, heat indices will still be above 95 across New Jersey, NYC, and western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: the 3k nam shows early morning convection which would suppress the afternoon activity south of the city. that's only one possibility though and the hrrr shows a clear warm sector 6z changed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 You've seen early NWS products/modeling prior to 12z/17. Please follow all NWS statements/warnings this afternoon tonight. PRIMARY max rainfall bands in our subforum of W CT, se NYS, extreme ne PA, n 1/2NJ, LI; ne-sw orientation (I think) roughly ne PA/NNJ through e NYS, NW 1/3 CT. That too where wet microbursts SVR but marginal TT48 instability and max wind below 500MB of about 30 kt. CAPE plenty supportive of SVR as well HI near 100 in warm sectors which could include KEWR. Yes TOR possible but not so much dynamically driven (that would mean potentially less strong), more so as spin along a boundary. Local mesoscale analysis will help with pooling dew points above 70, CAPE, sfc wind convergence as ingredients/drivers of heavy convection (outflows considered too). Moisture, lift and instability! LI, probably not much till after midnight and then not so much. Sunday: lets see what remains... convection possible but much less PW, but still further amounts. Details TBD including whether KEWR nudges 90F? Am probably offline 230-1030P. Family gathering. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1304.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 storms starting to fire nj coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Watch issued for a large area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 watch till 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 this zone looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this zone looks good Yeah we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Dark clouds to my left which would be Carteret. Think something is trying to pop there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: Dark clouds to my left which would be Carteret. Think something is trying to pop there. "To my left" So in other words "west". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Storms exploding here in Elizabeth NJ. Few bolts from the blue in the last 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Warning up for BK Crazy thunder in the distamce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Wow 1"+ hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 "To my left" So in other words "west".Yeah except now I hear thunder to my right which looks to be the cell about to hit Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Warning here in Brooklyn. Pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Just now, SI Mailman said: 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: "To my left" So in other words "west". Yeah except now I hear thunder to my right which looks to be the cell about to hit Brooklyn. "To my right"...so in other words "east" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Severe Thunderstorm Warning here in Brooklyn. Pouring here. Sunny here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Yeah, just saw a ctg lightning hit in the distance up towards the direction of Elizabeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Storms are firing all over now. Warnings keep popping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Much earlier than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 City warned Still sunny here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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