wdrag Posted July 15, 2021 Author Share Posted July 15, 2021 Yep, I did not expect this in Monmouth this eve (from morning post)... it seems to be mostly FF, with spotty microburst damage. At least something happened near NYC. Good WXunderground post by DONCAT. Thanks! The remainder of the eve...N CT primary but keep monitoring other cells still warned. Added the first 13 days of July from CoCoRAHS only. AND the lightning that occurred late yesterday into predawn today, Presuming this weekend's heavy showers occur, we may start a month long normal or below normal rainfall trend sometime next week...into mid August, per CPC only. Click on the maps and they show more clearly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 I heard the thunder from the Monmouth one and saw the dark clouds. Winds picked up briefly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 No rain, no thunder,but nice sunset. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Had the benefit of feeling that nice outflow from the monmouth storm without the rain. Felt nice while it lasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 15, 2021 Author Share Posted July 15, 2021 545A Thursday: Extended the original 9th post headline to Monday July 19. Modest heatwave at least for portions of NJ through Sat continues. Peak of the Heat Index values 95-100F either Fri or Sat? The main reason to extend the duration is for QPF purposes. Appears to me that a short wave (weak closed LOW aloft) will separate and drift east across the mid Atlantic states Sunday-Monday, hanging up the front a bit with HIGH PW (nr 2") airmass near and south of the front Sunday and possibly into Monday in our NYC subforum. IF that occurs, heavy qpf would occur along and south of the boundary, certainly into Sunday and possibly Monday. Where all this qpf will occur?? Guessing Sat I80 northward, Sunday I80 southward, but that is just an idea. Yes, there is still a chance the front will drift south of us faster, limiting the risk to Sat only, but there just seems to be too much information indicating caution on the previously faster progression. In the meantime: Today- could be a late shower or Tstm in high PW air coastal NJ? FrI: No SPC marginal risk for SVR, and wind fields are not favoring but with the approaching CF, I think the I90 to I84 corridor is at risk for isolated embedded SVR late Fri-Fri eve. Sat: Think it likely for FF and wetmicrobust wind damage thunderstorms, especially I80 north later in the day eve. No SPC outlook but there is from WPC, please see attached. It's a broad outlook but well stated. Sun-Mon: TBD per pgh's above. alid 12Z Sat Jul 17 2021 - 12Z Sun Jul 18 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...Tennessee River Valley to southern New England... A very slow moving cold front with multiple waves of low pressure along it is forecast to be in place from the Ohio Valley to New England on Saturday morning, and a strong upper ridge/Bermuda high will limit the eastward progression of this front through early Sunday. Much of the interior Northeast will be under the right entrance region of the upper level jet, along with an incoming 500 mb shortwave trough. At the surface, PWs are expected to surge near or slightly above 2 inches from the eastern Mid-Atlantic to southern England, which is well above the 90th percentile for this region. A corridor of enhanced PWs should along exist farther southwest ahead of the front from Tennessee to the central Appalachians, along with plenty of instability with surface based CAPE near 2000 J/kg. These factors will be enough to produce widespread moderate to intense convection with high rainfall rates, with the model consensus suggesting the potential for widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals from central Pennsylvania to the Massachusetts close where the Slight Risk area resides. It is also important to note that portions of this region have significantly reduced flash flood guidance owing to 300-500% of normal 7-day rainfall over the past week, and those areas will be more vulnerable to flash flooding from slow moving storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Hey @wdrag I know you have some New England experience so... Do you think this makes it to the RI coast as strong as it could be here? We have a two day outdoor festival that we've paid for the booth space and it's rain or shine so I need to know how to prepare. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 15, 2021 Author Share Posted July 15, 2021 6 hours ago, gravitylover said: Hey @wdrag I know you have some New England experience so... Do you think this makes it to the RI coast as strong as it could be here? We have a two day outdoor festival that we've paid for the booth space and it's rain or shine so I need to know how to prepare. Thanks Cannot quote me: Decision time for you is when? tonights 00z HPC HREF is a start into what and where Sat. I think we're looking good here for big QPF. my guess is RI is targeted Sunday but i could completely wrong. Still uncertainty... Let me know decision time. Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 15, 2021 Author Share Posted July 15, 2021 No changes in outlook. Sun-Mon remain up in the air. CF and weak low pressure posit combined with PWAT bullseye will determine deluge areas of concern. NAVGEM suddenly on board with EC for Sun-Mon. I think its good to remember all the modeling has been off on for Sunday so all i'm pretty sure of is an active Sat afternoon-night I80 north. BTW 3rd 90F day of the week at KEWR and other locations NNJ, 2 in a row there and many other spots NJ except NW NJ high terrain and some of the coasts. HI Near 100F HI tomorrow and then Sat has all to do with posit of the CF...going to be close for a 90F day in NNJ. s NJ looks like HI near 100... boundary somewhere between I84-I80? SPC moved the Marg risk tomorrow closer into the nw part of the subforum. I think a good move. Have a good night. Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 16, 2021 Author Share Posted July 16, 2021 11 hours ago, wdrag said: Cannot quote me: Decision time for you is when? tonights 00z HPC HREF is a start into what and where Sat. I think we're looking good here for big QPF. my guess is RI is targeted Sunday but i could completely wrong. Still uncertainty... Let me know decision time. Thanks, Appears to me a possible tstm RI very late this afternoon-eve; better chance sometime later Sat night, and to me, best chance for heavy storms is Sunday up there in RI. Let me know how it goes. Thanks. Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 16, 2021 Author Share Posted July 16, 2021 No changes for me: Sunday-early Monday are in doubt due to model differences, the Canadian a little exuberant for our area while the GFS/EC say the potential big show is basically done by dawn Sunday. Therefore, focusing these next two days: SPC marginal risk both today-tomorrow in our subforum due to greatest instability. Stronger wind tomorrow so I suspect more widespread outbreak Saturday. However, can't rule out a damaging tstm I84 corridor to near- just north of NYC late today. Pattern suggests to me isolated 4 to 5" by daybreak Sunday. Where best chance? Cant comment further right now...may be back late today. Have a good day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 4 hours ago, wdrag said: No changes for me: Sunday-early Monday are in doubt due to model differences, the Canadian a little exuberant for our area while the GFS/EC say the potential big show is basically done by dawn Sunday. Therefore, focusing these next two days: SPC marginal risk both today-tomorrow in our subforum due to greatest instability. Stronger wind tomorrow so I suspect more widespread outbreak Saturday. However, can't rule out a damaging tstm I84 corridor to near- just north of NYC late today. Pattern suggests to me isolated 4 to 5" by daybreak Sunday. Where best chance? Cant comment further right now...may be back late today. Have a good day. BGM at least believes Catskills/Poconos will be a big target tomorrow within their CWA so I would think most other places that can get into warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: BGM at least believes Catskills/Poconos will be a big target tomorrow within their CWA so I would think most other places that can get into warm sector I might drive up there tomorrow. What are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 1 hour ago, user13 said: I might drive up there tomorrow. What are you thinking? The signal definitely exists for someone around these parts to get hit big with rain tomorrow but where exactly remains a mystery. Some severe risk also exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Flash Flood watch up for much of the area now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 The HREF has another strong flash flooding and severe signal. But it will probably take a few more runs to pin down the exact locations. It has done very well with these general signals recently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The HREF has another strong flash flooding and severe signal. But it will probably take a few more runs to pin down the exact locations. It has done very well with these general signals recently. Wow NE NJ/NYC metro look to be a hotspot again if that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Already over 5 inches of rain has fallen here thus far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 59 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Wow NE NJ/NYC metro look to be a hotspot again if that is correct. Its hard to see but that model wants to drop 6"+ right over my hood Thankfully its difficult to pinpoint convection. Extremely concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The HREF has another strong flash flooding and severe signal. But it will probably take a few more runs to pin down the exact locations. It has done very well with these general signals recently. I think this is overdone, this is mostly a 1 inch event! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 @wdraggetting dumped on right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 16, 2021 Author Share Posted July 16, 2021 Since about 4PM Friday - this afternoon in far nw NJ se NYS .. sample 1-2" I've had 0.34 in 9 min. You can figure out the RF rate. MAX gust under 30. I think there is some small hail mixed in some of the tstms..per mPing and NWS algorithms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Now a ffw for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 yikes we need wdrag around, he’ll be floating soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 16, 2021 Author Share Posted July 16, 2021 think it's a good idea to be ready for some short duration FF this eve in nw NJ and parts of our area Sat afternoon-eve. It should end by sunrise Sunday and this airmass should dry out per modeling. But by then the damage will be done. Already today near 3" near Wantage NJ... who gets it tomorrow... please read on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 16, 2021 Author Share Posted July 16, 2021 Wantage NJ (this part) 1.02 since 514P. in basically 1 hr. CoCoRahs monthly totals attached-these do not include today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Flash Flood watch up for much of the area now Last time they hoisted FFW 24hrs in advance it failed miserably. They're the pro's so I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 Expect NOT widespread 4-5", instead widespread 0.2-1.2" with a band or two of 4-5" probably somewhere near the 90F heat which will be in NJ (Probably D4 modest heatwave in most of NJ except coastal waters). This eve's 1-3" nw NJ in the digital storm total radar band previously shown. My Wantage (this southern part) total 1.12. Will try and reevaluate potential early tomorrow morning. 12z/16 SPC HREF under played the max by about 1" ending 8PM this evening. SPC HREF seems to favor, imo, ne NJ received ing the most by daybreak Sunday, starting this evening. As others have said, we shall see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 35 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Last time they hoisted FFW 24hrs in advance it failed miserably. They're the pro's so I guess time will tell. What do you want them to do, issue a FFW for one or two counties? The ffw is warranted. Some places will miss and some places may flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 Here's what happened here late today. I watched this cell-line develop from 4-515P. I think plenty more of this tomorrow..stronger winds aloft. It should come down to primary persistent convergent bullseye 5P-midnight Sat. Will reevaluate in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 Power outages Sussex County NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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