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Winter 2021-22


Ji
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It's not possible for this winter to be worse than last winter.  If it's any warmer than last year then I can enjoy the outdoors better and wear shorts for the entire year. Maybe even garden.  It couldn't possibly snow less than last year since you can't have negative snow.  So I'm looking forward to it, I predict some solid cold.  

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22 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because of the blocking. We need to get some of that cold over here and then set up some blocking 

Definitely. The blocking kept it at bay and when the cold air finally made it here it had moderated too much. It just proves how much luck is really involved in us having a blockbuster winter. We were over climo last year so I am not complaining. We get cold enough regardless. But for the coastal plain they need the cold air much more. And if they get it we get it better. 

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2 hours ago, IronTy said:

It's not possible for this winter to be worse than last winter.  If it's any warmer than last year then I can enjoy the outdoors better and wear shorts for the entire year. Maybe even garden.  It couldn't possibly snow less than last year since you can't have negative snow.  So I'm looking forward to it, I predict some solid cold.  

I think we'd all lose our minds if a 97-98 winter appeared.  Yes I believe it was a super El Nino... but those temps... yikes 

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ok….so are there any known correlations between cold  Antarctic winters and the upcoming winter for the Northern Hemisphere???
 

CNN)In a year of extreme heat, Antarctica's last six months were the coldest on record.

"For the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average temperature was -60.9 degrees Celsius (-77.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a record for those months," the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said.
The last six months is also the darkest period at the South Pole, which is where the name polar darkness (also called polar night) comes from. Here, the sun sets for the last time around the spring equinox, and does not rise again until near the autumn equinox six months later. 
 
For the entire Antarctic continent, the winter of 2021 was the second-coldest on record, with the "temperature for June, July, and August 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than the 1981 to 2010 average at -62.9 degrees Celsius (-81.2 degrees Fahrenheit)," according to a new report from the NSIDC.
 
 
"This is the second-coldest winter (June-July-August months) on record, behind only 2004 in the 60-year weather record at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station," the NSIDC said.
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21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

ok….so are there any known correlations between cold  Antarctic winters and the upcoming winter for the Northern Hemisphere???
 

CNN)In a year of extreme heat, Antarctica's last six months were the coldest on record.

"For the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average temperature was -60.9 degrees Celsius (-77.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a record for those months," the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said.
The last six months is also the darkest period at the South Pole, which is where the name polar darkness (also called polar night) comes from. Here, the sun sets for the last time around the spring equinox, and does not rise again until near the autumn equinox six months later. 
 
For the entire Antarctic continent, the winter of 2021 was the second-coldest on record, with the "temperature for June, July, and August 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than the 1981 to 2010 average at -62.9 degrees Celsius (-81.2 degrees Fahrenheit)," according to a new report from the NSIDC.
 
 
"This is the second-coldest winter (June-July-August months) on record, behind only 2004 in the 60-year weather record at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station," the NSIDC said.

That is literally unimaginable cold

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54 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Interesting thread regarding the MJO.  If something similar plays out this winter we should at least see windows of opportunity.

 

Doesn't this show more prevalent MJO phases 3-5 in Nina with -QBO (like we have now)?  Those are pretty crappy phases for us...We want 8-1-2 in winter.  Phase 3 can be good in March IIRC.  

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55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Doesn't this show more prevalent MJO phases 3-5 in Nina with -QBO (like we have now)?  Those are pretty crappy phases for us...We want 8-1-2 in winter.  Phase 3 can be good in March IIRC.  

It does...but I guess the positive takeaway, imo,  is it shows a good signal for a progressive mjo.  Hence, windows of opportunity.

Not a lot of great signals in general for this winter.  Im just looking for signs of something that will buck the system (best case scenario) or at least a sign that the classic nina pattern could have interruptions.

I have no clue and no expectations.

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CFS weeklies start to build heights in the NAO domain around mid November. As advertised December has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, and neutral PNA. Things look to shift sometime in early Jan, and go to complete crap into February. Long way off, but at least seeing some signs that December could have a decent h5 look. I think that aligns with the thoughts of some of the folks who dabble in predicting the character of the upcoming winter.

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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

CFS weeklies start to build heights in the NAO domain around mid November. As advertised December has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, and neutral PNA. Things look to shift sometime in early Jan, and go to complete crap into February. Long way off, but at least seeing some signs that December could have a decent h5 look. I think that aligns with the thoughts of some of the folks who dabble in predicting the character of the upcoming winter.

Though we might be better off if the best pattern set up in Jan or Feb at least we don’t need to worry about sun angle at all in December.

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40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

CFS weeklies start to build heights in the NAO domain around mid November. As advertised December has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, and neutral PNA. Things look to shift sometime in early Jan, and go to complete crap into February. Long way off, but at least seeing some signs that December could have a decent h5 look. I think that aligns with the thoughts of some of the folks who dabble in predicting the character of the upcoming winter.

That's would be a textbook nina, wouldn't it...actually 2017-18 verbatim, imo. We had a cold December with a couple light events...then the unfortunately missed bomb cyclone in early Jan...warmish February (that somehow managed a light event towards the end of the month--just a fee days of upper 60s/lower 70s). We ain't gonna talk about March (I still have PTSD from the that stupid GL low, lol)

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49 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Though we might be better off if the best pattern set up in Jan or Feb at least we don’t need to worry about sun angle at all in December.

Ill take my chances with blocking in December. Especially with some cold air on our side of the hemisphere. I would much rather be worrying about blocking breaking down than wondering if any blocking is ever going to happen. 

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3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Ill take my chances with blocking in December. Especially with some cold air on our side of the hemisphere. I would much rather be worrying about blocking breaking down than wondering if any blocking is ever going to happen. 

Absolutely. I will roll the dice with a favorable AO/NAO anytime. The basic problem in December is climo, so HL blocking may simply produce chilly and wet when storms come along, esp for the lowlands.

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