Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2021-22


Ji
 Share

Recommended Posts

I don’t even know why we are still talking about this winter. We all know that it’s a Nina and that means the temps will be from +5 to +20, there will be no snow outside of a stray flurry (that will close Fauquier schools for a week), a southeast ridge all the way to the Hudson Bay, causing all migrating polar bears to drown, and a PNA so negative that there will blizzards in Acapulco.

Just let it die already.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As winter seasons roll on I have become in agreement with something I wasn’t.-“ Don’t waste the cold” 

 DC gets. back to back bellow average months once a year and when that’s DJF it’s gold. Since mid 60s DC gets a big winter about every 5/6 winters  and every 6 years the two month cold hits at the right time for us. Mid  Oct thru Mid Dec cold is useless. 
Let Pac roar  now and not later 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Great March snow in 2018…:yikes:

We know it’s a Nina. If we disregard 1996 as a fluke all other Nina’s in the last 75 years fall into two categories. Ones with a flat pacific ridge and no blocking which are the mega disasters like 2008 and 2012. Then there are ones which feature some periods of a poleward pac ridge and or blocking. Those feature threats and usually at least one legit snowstorm and if we’re lucky some fight there way to near average snowfall, which is actually a good winter imo since we only hit avg like 25-30% of the time!  Luck often decides if it’s 10” v 20” in those years. 
 

All that to say I’d take another 2018. We had a cold pac driven period from mid December to Mid January. 3 or 4 legit threats. Got pretty unlucky imo. Then the torch in late January and Feb was made worse because we had struck out in a decent pattern early. But even during the warm month I remember 2 threats that teased and barely missed. Then the epic March pattern. Get that 2 weeks earlier and maybe we get one more storm!  Imo a year with the same general number of threats as 2018 is probably the best we can hope for. Just have to hope we get slightly better luck and hit 1-2 more of the chances. But even if we didn’t a 10-20” winter across the region is far from the worst case scenario for a second year Nina!  
 

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes. I think a 01-02/11-12 level disaster is certainly possible, but there are also some Ninas that would be tolerable like 10-11 and 17-18 that I’d take in a minute over those worse options. Given the QBO and low solar conditions, we can hope that we will have periods of favorable NHEM blocking. Dat PAC SST though…:yikes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes. I think a 01-02/11-12 level disaster is certainly possible, but there are also some Ninas that would be tolerable like 10-11 and 17-18 that I’d take in a minute over those worse options. Given the QBO and low solar conditions, we can hope that we will have periods of favorable NHEM blocking. Dat PAC SST though…:yikes:

Yea the pac sst is just about as bad as it could possibly be across the whole basin!  We probably just have to hope last winter was the start of a longer term period of prevalent blocking. That could save us from a total dud. Then we have to hope eventually we can line up blocking with a favorable pacific sst.   

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jeez you people are acting like winter is already over. It’s not, specific short range climate is difficult to predict. Does it look good? Not really but don’t see the need for all the doom and gloom. We can just get a fluke storm pretty much no matter the larger scale factors even if the large scale does go to crap. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Jeez you people are acting like winter is already over. It’s not, specific short range climate is difficult to predict. Does it look good? Not really but don’t see the need for all the doom and gloom. We can just get a fluke storm pretty much no matter the larger scale factors even if the large scale does go to crap. 

Don't all ninas not named 95/96 pretty much turn out the same around here? (With 2017-18 nickel and dimed 18" total being the high end). See the other ENSO states have more "chaos"...but Ninas are, historically, frustratingly consistent. I don't think any other ENSO has a greater proportion of fails than ninas, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Jeez you people are acting like winter is already over. It’s not, specific short range climate is difficult to predict. Does it look good? Not really but don’t see the need for all the doom and gloom. We can just get a fluke storm pretty much no matter the larger scale factors even if the large scale does go to crap. 

You must be new here.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Unless it's 1995-1996, 2002-2003, or 2009-2010 redux, it's a failure. I've been guilty of that in the past. Just give me climo and Christmas snow anymore and I'm happy.

Yeah I've noticed but people are already acting like this winter is DOA just because it is most likely not going to be a great winter doesn't mean there is no hope/we can't do decent.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't all ninas not named 95/96 pretty much turn out the same around here? (With 2017-18 nickel and dimed 18" total being the high end). See the other ENSO states have more "chaos"...but Ninas are, historically, frustratingly consistent. I don't think any other ENSO has a greater proportion of fails than ninas, lol

99-2000 was a decent nina.  Pretty epic surprise snowstorm and several borderline events.  98-99 was also a nina that featured a major ice storm in January and another epic surprise snow in March along with a couple threats that just missed in March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah I've noticed but people are already acting like this winter is DOA just because it is most likely not going to be a great winter doesn't mean there is no hope/we can't do decent.

Hitsotircally, La Nina winters are pretty terrible south of DC and east of I-95. Unless you're along Mason-Dixon or at a higher elevation, keep your expectations really low.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hitsotircally, La Nina winters are pretty terrible south of DC and east of I-95. Unless you're along Mason-Dixon or at a higher elevation, keep your expectations really low.

Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet.

Go back and read the discussion for about August through November of last year. There is some really terrible prognostication in there.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet.

You have to understand that we have a tendency to get the rug pulled out from underneath us at the last minute, sometimes as late as 12 to 24 hours prior to the event. It gets worse when folks from other forums come down to rub salt in the wounds and spike the ball in our face just to get a rise out of us. 

Snow is sacred here, you wait months for a 15 days window that produces maybe 8 to 12 hours of snow and then it's gone by sunset the next day. 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet.

friend, you need to learn to let that shit go. otherwise this place will irritate you non-stop. 

its what we do here. we cancel before it begins, uncancel when it looks good, only to cancel it again at game-time. just how it goes during the winter

people deb. people weenie. people bicker and complain. wash rinse repeat every winter. 

join em, or learn to ignore em

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...