Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2021-22


Ji
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Siberian October snowpack, solar mins, sunspots, the Farmers Almanac, wooly bear caterpillars, wildfire smoke, Jebman apocalypse, La Niña, tripoles, and aliens…

We just don’t know.

Throw in a volcanic eruption or 2..

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Siberian October snowpack, solar mins, sunspots, the Farmers Almanac, wooly bear caterpillars, wildfire smoke, Jebman apocalypse, La Niña, tripoles, and aliens…

We just don’t know.

 

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Throw in a volcanic eruption or 2..

The angle of the cold may not be good enough though 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/21/2021 at 12:29 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

There's one problem with this...last winter was one year after the solar minimum. And lo and behold...we did indeed get our high lat blocking with the -AO/-NAO (isn't that what the whole theory with the minimum is about?) The problem is it didn't do any good!!

It’s never that simple. There are so many brilliant minds in this field and yet long range seasonal forecasting has extremely low predictive success rates. Because there are so many moving parts and conflicting signals to factor.  
 

It’s possible we wasted our solar cycle shot last winter. That wouldn’t surprise me. But it’s also possible last winter was just the start of an overdue longer period of high latitude blocking. The winter of 2009 had some decent blocking that did us no good. So did 2011.  From 2009-2013 actually featured a pretty favorable high lat much of the time but it really only paid off much in 2010. 
 

Going further back 1977-1980 featured quite a bit of blocking following a period before of relatively little help up top. And it didn’t always work out wrt snowfall for various reasons but we certainly did cash in at times during that longer window. 

We can only hope that last winter the trend up top flipped and we have more luck with future -AO periods. For the record the blocking in 2009 was muted by the pac in much the same way as last winter. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sure, why not.

https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20

"Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!"

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sure, why not.

https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20

"Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!"

We don’t really care about ENSO at this point right? I think it’s kind of overrated anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sure, why not.

https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20

"Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!"

I mean he has a good point. Let’s just all be hopeful until that theory crumbles. Lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sure, why not.

https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20

"Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!"

But again, though...the solar minimum was in late 2019, correct? We're past the lag time! And again...last winter's -AO/-NAO I thought was the result of the minimum...just that we couldn't do anything with it. And even if this year ends up being the actual solar min. benefit, how is that gonna happen with a la nina? And, both 02/03 and 09/10 also happened to be El Ninos...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/26/2021 at 7:09 PM, Prestige Worldwide said:

giphy.gifI’m looking forward to the opening 

 

On 7/26/2021 at 8:43 PM, Rhino16 said:

Don’t think it’s happening. The reaper is hiding in someone’s cabinets during renovations somewhere.

B44C01F0-F6FB-4888-BF5F-FD1F2259E7AC.jpeg

Yeah, sorry guys. I’m retired.

cgtqf6x.jpg

  • Haha 8
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh

That's a good question. I think normal SSTs are normal North/South Hemisphere across during El Nino's. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh

I’m a believer that neutral is the best for the types of winter that I want. From -0.5 to 0.5. More consistently wintry.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/4/2021 at 11:30 AM, psurulz said:

I'm with WinterWxLuvr, I need someone to translate what all that stuff from Chuck means?

It’s simple…if the angular vector of the tropospheric velocity is in conjunction with the stratospheric vertical thickness values than the QBO is likely to synchronize with the PDO and the hemispheric energies are low because the solar flux is unstable. It snows in winter. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...